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Support and Resistance Method - Pharley

  • #241
  • Aug 11, 2015 4:44pm Aug 11, 2015 4:44pm
Quoting relaxtrading
In my opinion eurus should go south 3-4 4H candles before considering anything, %. Even though the first support/demand area is not too far away, there is enough room to open 1 or two trades until this first support is reached. The problem in most of the pairs is that market hve been very slow and quiet lately, average true range for instance on eurus drop from 110 to 80 pips in a few weeks. cheers
This is typical August trading with low volume so lower volatility. A lot of bank traders are on holiday and most western governments are on partial holiday close so not many decisions being made and lots of big traders not at their desks. Of course there's always surprises! But watch the volatility and Daily range pick up mid September/October.
  • #242
  • Aug 11, 2015 4:48pm Aug 11, 2015 4:48pm
Quoting terminator12
{image} pharley Might be other entry , Do u see i m right . If i m right lately can see picture better , still more practice ,
Hi T12,

Remember to always look at the bigger picture - see chart below - it's a 4hr chart showing a channel. On the daily chart you can see the channel formed. On this 4hr chart then I put the fib from the top to swing low, then I can see a 50% retrace entry at the red dotted line. Could be worth watching for further entries.

Many times we see price already started on it's run through a channel or move away from major S/R areas and think - I've missed the boat on that one. And while yes it's good to get in at the start, there are plenty of opportunities to join the run after it has started. Look for those lovely retracements, 4hr candles closing above/below daily H or L, pin bars, inside bars - all this stuff during a run and try to get on board. But take your target from the bigger weekly chart and make sure there is a good Risk/reward involved.

Cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd 4hr channel.PNG Size: 33 KB
  • #243
  • Aug 11, 2015 4:51pm Aug 11, 2015 4:51pm
Quoting wizlon32
EURUSD is in a bit of a wedge. I would wait for a breakout and pullback before jumping in. Just my opinion. {image}
Hi Wiz,

Yeah, perhaps wait for a breakout and retrace before pulling any triggers - keep your eye on it.
  • #244
  • Aug 11, 2015 4:54pm Aug 11, 2015 4:54pm
Quoting wizlon32
CHFJPY approaching support?? {image}
I like that one Wiz - coming down to channel support, probably at around 124.50 ? in a general uptrend. Definitely one to watch out for.
  • #245
  • Aug 11, 2015 5:00pm Aug 11, 2015 5:00pm
Quoting Dutchpips
{quote} Hi Pharley, thanks for the explantions on the EURAUD trade. I am with you on the trade but was not able for entry 2 and 3 due to work. I also run a business and some days not at the office, that is why I like to trade the day and 4H charts. Will wait for a drawback and jump on again. It is all about the momentum! I think the discipline and pull the tricker at the right moment is another part of the work to become a succesfull trader. Hope you will come with more of these examples! {quote} Where did you place your stoploss of the...
Hi Dutch,

Yes it's always a problem when work gets in the way of trading! Still, you're taking the right approach by looking at the daily charts and trading mainly off those and perhaps the 4hr as well.

My SL for the third entry (not a great one I admit) was below the low of the previous 4hr candle.

I'll try to keep posting other examples of live trades as I do them. Also it's worth us all carrying on posting any major S/R areas that price is approaching - great to have more eyes on the job!
  • #246
  • Aug 11, 2015 5:05pm Aug 11, 2015 5:05pm
Quoting pharley
{quote} Hi Rover, That's great to hear and for sure you're all welcome to dive in with comments, set ups, questions. You're right about believing in what you're doing. If you can learn a good, solid method of trading and look at the big picture in terms of S/R areas, then you can really start to see some positive gains. Getting an edge is hard and it's difficult to quantify. I mean, what is an edge in trading? I think if you can learn how to spot decent S/R areas and be disciplined about how you enter, what that does is put you in the correct position...
Hi pharley

You were spot on when you said there is of course an element of luck in trading. Take your EURAUD trade today, China deciding to devalue the Yaun by an unprecedented amount sending the Aussie down and news on a new Greece bailout sent the Euro up, pushing EA into orbit! But you saw that trend line, you entered the market and you executed your trade for a great win. Of course it could've gone the other way and you would've taken the loss and moved on to the next trade.

You have a great structure here of trade entry and exit enabling you to just 'wash rinse and repeat' because it's the long game that matters not the individual trade!
  • #247
  • Aug 11, 2015 5:10pm Aug 11, 2015 5:10pm
Quoting rover99x
{quote} Hi pharley You were spot on when you said there is of course an element of luck in trading. Take your EURAUD trade today, China deciding to devalue the Yaun by an unprecedented amount sending the Aussie down and news on a new Greece bailout sent the Euro up, pushing EA into orbit! But you saw that trend line, you entered the market and you executed your trade for a great win. Of course it could've gone the other way and you would've taken the loss and moved on to the next trade. You have a great structure here of trade entry and exit enabling...
That's it mate - you're exactly right. I wasn't really aware of the news coming along - just traded what I saw. What happens after that is anyone's guess. So there is the luck piece displayed as a good example. What we're trying to do is put ourselves in the position where we can take advantage of it with minimal risk. Yes and if a trade loses you do just move on to the next - always try to find out what went wrong with it as everything is a learning process. At the end of this run, I'll be analysing what I did right, wrong, good or bad or downright ugly! But sure, rinse and repeat.

Cheers
  • #248
  • Aug 11, 2015 5:14pm Aug 11, 2015 5:14pm
Interesting pin bar on the 4hr that I don't like - see chart below with minor resistance shown. So my options are to cash out now all my trades or keep it going to play out. Looking at the 1 day chart it had a great move up so I'm not surprised to see either consolidation or retraces happening.

I will just ride things out and let it run. My T1 and T2 trades are in profit and not at risk. T3 is at risk, but minimal with T1 and T2 profits more than covering any loss from T3.

So now it's time to do nothing - you've probably heard that a million times. There are many times in forex that you're actually not doing anything. Yes I'll monitor the charts to see if further entries can be taken. We'll see how it goes.

Cheers
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud 20150812 pic 1.PNG Size: 55 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud 20150812 pic 2 daily.PNG Size: 50 KB
  • #249
  • Aug 11, 2015 5:22pm Aug 11, 2015 5:22pm
Quoting pharley
Interesting pin bar on the 4hr that I don't like - see chart below with minor resistance shown. So my options are to cash out now all my trades or keep it going to play out. Looking at the 1 day chart it had a great move up so I'm not surprised to see either consolidation or retraces happening. I will just ride things out and let it run. My T1 and T2 trades are in profit and not at risk. T3 is at risk, but minimal with T1 and T2 profits more than covering any loss from T3. So now it's time to do nothing - you've probably heard that a million times....
Yep pharley

To quote a very famous trading book Reminiscences of a Stock Operator 'It's the sitting on my hands and doing nothing that made me the most money'
  • #250
  • Aug 11, 2015 8:58pm Aug 11, 2015 8:58pm
Hi all,

Ok the run is over after it hit all my TP targets. This morning the euraud went up fast, and with all my trades at BE or locking in profit I bought a further 1 trade until it went up to TP.

Results are:

Overall pip move during the run from bottom to my TP target was about 480 pips.

Pips gained from all trades = 900
% of account gained = 59.9%
Total trades = 4
Days length of run (from first trade to exit) = 2.5 days
Account Risk level initially 3%, then 6% to 7%

So I'm very happy with that result, especially gaining 60% in 2.5 days. Probably could have done better with gains but the pair had 2 quick moves which didn't leave to much time for retraces and further entries.

Ok, I'll do some analysis of my trades this coming weekend to see the good and the bad. Now on to the next one! Got to go analyse some charts and find the next one.

I hope it's apparent that for normal risk you can achieve some terrific gains. This has been one of the drivers for me putting together this method - seeing terrific returns and at first thinking "they must be taking huge risks". But it's not the case - keep risk reasonable and manage it well and if you do the analysis and get on a good run, terrific returns are possible.

Now rinse and repeat - once per month if you can, or perhaps every 2 or 3 weeks if there are set ups, and your trading pot really starts to grow seriously quickly.

Cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trades finished.PNG Size: 68 KB
  • #251
  • Aug 11, 2015 9:30pm Aug 11, 2015 9:30pm
Quoting Rtm
Do you have a trade explorer providing live examples of the trades you take using this system?
Hi Rtm,

Just finished a live trade example.

Cheers
  • #252
  • Aug 11, 2015 9:40pm Aug 11, 2015 9:40pm
Great work mate and all in real time, too.

Really inspiring as you keep it nice and simple and leverage off of your ability.

No hurry for the next one, let it come to you.
Healthy, Wealthy & Steady!!
  • #253
  • Aug 11, 2015 9:45pm Aug 11, 2015 9:45pm
Quoting pharley
Hi all, Ok the run is over after it hit all my TP targets. This morning the euraud went up fast, and with all my trades at BE or locking in profit I bought a further 1 trade until it went up to TP. Results are: Overall pip move during the run from bottom to my TP target was about 480 pips. Pips gained from all trades = 900 % of account gained = 59.9% Total trades = 4 Days length of run (from first trade to exit) = 2.5 days Account Risk level initially 3%, then 6% to 7% So I'm very happy with that result, especially gaining 60% in 2.5 days. Probably...

Well done pharley!!! It seems you got R:R of 10:1 for this 4 trades in total!!
Usually how much you risk on single trade? Would you add position when in profit or the position starts to against you?
Would you at any one time trade multiple pairs or find the best pair?
  • #254
  • Aug 11, 2015 9:52pm Aug 11, 2015 9:52pm
Quoting SunnyFx2002
Great work mate and all in real time, too. Really inspiring as you keep it nice and simple and leverage off of your ability. No hurry for the next one, let it come to you.
HI mate,

Thanks - hope it provides some inspiration and knocks some doubters on the head about what can be done. Yes I'll have a slow look around the charts and see if anything looks interesting. Otherwise I'm in no hurry - I can wait for the set ups.

Cheers
  • #255
  • Aug 11, 2015 9:55pm Aug 11, 2015 9:55pm
Quoting happytrade38
{quote} Well done pharley!!! It seems you got R:R of 10:1 for this 4 trades in total!! Usually how much you risk on single trade? Would you add position when in profit or the position starts to against you? Would you at any one time trade multiple pairs or find the best pair?
Hi Happy,

Thanks - yes it was a nice run of a few hundred pips. I'm always on the look out for those types of set ups.

Normally I risk about 3% or 4% on the first trade then 6% to 8% on the remainder.

I add to positions when in profit - normally when price action shows me another point to enter. I don't like adding to positions when it goes against me - it's more difficult to manage the overall risk, and I like to keep the risk constant.

Normally when I find a good run to get on, I just trade the 1 pair - just concentrate on that one to make the most out of it. Perhaps I'm hopeless at multi-tasking! Nah, really I like to put my focus on the 1 pair that I'm trading.

Cheers
  • #256
  • Edited 2:08am Aug 12, 2015 1:01am | Edited 2:08am
Quoting pharley
Hi all, Ok the run is over after it hit all my TP targets. This morning the euraud went up fast, and with all my trades at BE or locking in profit I bought a further 1 trade until it went up to TP. Results are: Overall pip move during the run from bottom to my TP target was about 480 pips. Pips gained from all trades = 900 % of account gained = 59.9% Total trades = 4 Days length of run (from first trade to exit) = 2.5 days Account Risk level initially 3%, then 6% to 7% So I'm very happy with that result, especially gaining 60% in 2.5 days. Probably...
Hi Pharley, good trade!! I have only half of your result but still good! You show me how to get the most out of a trade with low risk! Perfect. Only a few trades a month would be enough
  • #257
  • Aug 12, 2015 1:31am Aug 12, 2015 1:31am
Pharley,

Absolutely outstanding is all I can say! I think you have shown us all the way to go. Very inspiring.

I think that besides the basic strategy one of the most important things that you said is that you just concentrate on 1 pair at a time. This way you are properly investing your attention (plus a bit of time) and not just your money and I think that is also key to success.

Up until now, even when I have been in a trade I have always been on the lookout for more and at times this has caused me to over-trade and inevitably pick some (plenty) losers.

From now on I am going to properly invest my attention.

Thanks,

Wiz
Indentify > Plan > Accept > Execute
  • #258
  • Aug 12, 2015 2:00am Aug 12, 2015 2:00am
Quoting pharley
{quote} I like that one Wiz - coming down to channel support, probably at around 124.50 ? in a general uptrend. Definitely one to watch out for.
There is a nice demand area just right there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_2015-08-12-07-46-51.png Size: 54 KB
  • #259
  • Aug 12, 2015 2:01am Aug 12, 2015 2:01am
Quoting wizlon32
Pharley, Absolutely outstanding is all I can say! I think you have shown us all the way to go. Very inspiring. I think that besides the basic strategy one of the most important things that you said is that you just concentrate on 1 pair at a time. This way you are properly investing your attention (plus a bit of time) and not just your money and I think that is also key to success. Up until now, even when I have been in a trade I have always been on the lookout for more and at times this has caused me to over-trade and inevitably pick some (plenty)...

Me too
  • #260
  • Aug 12, 2015 2:39am Aug 12, 2015 2:39am
Quoting pharley
Hi all, Ok the run is over after it hit all my TP targets. This morning the euraud went up fast, and with all my trades at BE or locking in profit I bought a further 1 trade until it went up to TP. Results are: Overall pip move during the run from bottom to my TP target was about 480 pips. Pips gained from all trades = 900 % of account gained = 59.9% Total trades = 4 Days length of run (from first trade to exit) = 2.5 days Account Risk level initially 3%, then 6% to 7% So I'm very happy with that result, especially gaining 60% in 2.5 days. Probably...
Hi pharley

Nice work mate

A word about your TPs, were they all at 90% of the last swing down on the Daily?
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