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Let's Trade Options

  • #10,061
  • Aug 11, 2015 11:12am Aug 11, 2015 11:12am
Researching who might be most hit by the PBOC devaluation, focusing on which sectors U.S. exports to China are the biggest:

1. Soybeans.
2. Civilian aircraft.
3. Passenger vehicles.
4. Electronic integrated circuits.
5. Copper waste and scrap.
6. Telecomm equipment.
7. Aluminum waste and scrap.
8. Cotton.
9. Paperboard waste and scrap.
10. Medical/surgical/dental instruments.

http://www.chinabusinessreview.com/t...rease-in-2013/ These are 2013 figures, but it's just to give an idea of what to potentially focus on.

With aircraft, a lot of orders are likely to be the in hopper already, but U.S. auto manufacturers could take a hit ... . That being said, a 2.0% devaluation really isn't that significant on a car, but on a $320 million 777?
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,062
  • Aug 11, 2015 11:13am Aug 11, 2015 11:13am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
... In a matter of hours, a whole different story ... . Tomorrow will be totally different ... . Or more of the same ... . Lol.
Yep. That is why that 50% rule comes handy. Things change. Take the profit when you have one, and run for the hills. Especially in this range-bound environment YTD, and if you didn't enter on the very edges of the range.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,063
  • Aug 11, 2015 11:16am Aug 11, 2015 11:16am
Quoting StrayDog
DJIA -> Death cross is ON... {image} Mr. Market, feel free to press the Panic Button.
Inserted Video
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,064
  • Aug 11, 2015 11:19am Aug 11, 2015 11:19am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Researching who might be most hit by the PBOC devaluation?
lol, our biggest export to China is still trash (scrap, waste, whatever). They send big screen TV's here, we send back the cartons they came in, which they recycle into paper that they send us...etc
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,065
  • Aug 11, 2015 11:22am Aug 11, 2015 11:22am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yep. That is why that 50% rule comes handy. Things change. Take the profit when you have one, and run for the hills. Especially in this range-bound environment YTD, and if you didn't enter on the very edges of the range.
Most times, more than happy to run for the hills on these index short call verts and IC's with 50% max ... . Now that I got my contract sizes tweaked to minimize the fee/commission reaming ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,066
  • Aug 11, 2015 11:25am Aug 11, 2015 11:25am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} lol, our biggest export to China is still trash (scrap, waste, whatever). They send big screen TV's here, we send back the cartons they came in, which they recycle into paper that they send us...etc
Kinda found that funny ... . But there's a certain intelligence there; cheaper to recycle processed paper, copper, aluminum than process it from raw materials ... .

Wonder if they'll turn more to the Eurozone for their trash now; may be cheaper in comparison to importing from U.S. ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,067
  • Aug 11, 2015 11:36am Aug 11, 2015 11:36am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} And here I thought that trading indices would be less nerve-wracking than monkeying around with individual underlyings ... . It's a very manic thing. Yesterday, I was frankly thinking that we could see a retest of YTD highs in SPY with that 210 ... . In a matter of hours, a whole different story ... . Tomorrow will be totally different ... . Or more of the same ... . Lol.
You and me both. In hindsight seeing TWTR up 10% or so was a bit of a clue that the bar stewards were playing us for fools.....
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,068
  • Aug 11, 2015 11:37am Aug 11, 2015 11:37am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCadcBR95oU
yo yo yo yo!

One of my favourite songs. Ah, if only I had Stewie's time machine.....
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,069
  • Aug 11, 2015 11:41am Aug 11, 2015 11:41am
Crude chose an interesting place to park itself...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 137 KB
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,070
  • Aug 11, 2015 12:06pm Aug 11, 2015 12:06pm
/ES is very very close to touching 200sma AGAIN... will the algos buy there like before? Or could we see a breakdown of that holy line?
Almost every time that happens when the market is already down a lot, like today, it is already down 1.3%... so easier to bounce from there.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,071
  • Aug 11, 2015 12:11pm Aug 11, 2015 12:11pm
20-20 hindsight says I should have gone short call vert on SVXY yesterday when it was dancing around 97 ... . Oh, well, can't catch everything ... .

Discovering that it's best to play SVXY with short expiries -- max three weeks out ... . What can I say? I'm a slow learner ... . Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,072
  • Aug 11, 2015 12:14pm Aug 11, 2015 12:14pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
20-20 hindsight says I should have gone short call vert on SVXY yesterday when it was dancing around 97 ... . Oh, well, can't catch everything ... . Discovering that it's best to play SVXY with short expiries -- max three weeks out ... . What can I say? I'm a slow learner ... . Lol.
And SVXY's definitely one where you want to grab your money and run ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,073
  • Aug 11, 2015 12:18pm Aug 11, 2015 12:18pm
Quoting StrayDog
/ES is very very close to touching 200sma AGAIN... will the algos buy there like before? Or could we see a breakdown of that holy line? Almost every time that happens when the market is already down a lot, like today, it is already down 1.3%... so easier to bounce from there.
There goes yesterday's gap up ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,074
  • Aug 11, 2015 12:26pm Aug 11, 2015 12:26pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
Crude chose an interesting place to park itself... {image}
Hi BW.

This $42 - $44 area was support before.
Daily chart - that blue line is trend-line from Monthly chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CL-D.PNG Size: 118 KB


Here is that trend-line on Monthly chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CL-M.PNG Size: 126 KB

It looks like crap on Monthly... we could see prices bellow $40.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,075
  • Aug 11, 2015 12:33pm Aug 11, 2015 12:33pm
trying to fill a Sep GREK bull call vert, $12/$13 for 5 centavos
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,076
  • Aug 11, 2015 12:41pm Aug 11, 2015 12:41pm
I bought NBG $1 Aug calls for 6c, pure revenge
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,077
  • Aug 11, 2015 12:42pm Aug 11, 2015 12:42pm
Quoting StrayDog
/ES is very very close to touching 200sma AGAIN... will the algos buy there like before?
Hell yeah, price DID touched the holy sma, and algos DID bought the dip. I knew it... ah you mofos, but I did said good buy to my /ES spreads there you mofos.

That position (/ES Sep 2130/2160) was pain in the but, since I entered bad, wrong timing, I didn't like that position at all. Just 24/7 frustration.

Voice from the background - Yo, SD, but you have to learn to be patient, let your winners run... you know you should be patient after so many years, man...

Yes, patience... but I want to go to vacation cash only. Sold them for $7.25 and $9.00 CR, bought back for $6.00. Not the trade of the year.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,078
  • Aug 11, 2015 12:45pm Aug 11, 2015 12:45pm
Quoting StrayDog
/ES is very very close to touching 200sma AGAIN... will the algos buy there like before? Or could we see a breakdown of that holy line? Almost every time that happens when the market is already down a lot, like today, it is already down 1.3%... so easier to bounce from there.
idk. I have Sept5 SPY calls $216/$219 now sitting at 50% if I want to get out. Time not gonna help me now really, I need yardage. I was holding on for $205 and maybe a 70% take of the 76c credit, at least 50c net, anyway. I'm just too greedy to be a fifty percenter...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,079
  • Aug 11, 2015 12:45pm Aug 11, 2015 12:45pm
Well, got my boat pretty full here ... . Probably got too much on in QQQ, but that was the most volatile of the index mix, so I was on that like white on rice ... .

Keeping the rest of the powder dry for another upmove, since I hesitated at SPY 210/210.50 and didn't put anything on there (heck, looked pretty strong there to me ... before China stepped in ... ).

Have thought about just modellng what options prices should be for strikes above the YTD high should SPY be at 210 for a given expiry and then set up orders to catch that ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,080
  • Aug 11, 2015 12:57pm Aug 11, 2015 12:57pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} idk. I have Sept5 SPY calls $216/$219 now sitting at 50% if I want to get out. Time not gonna help me now really, I need yardage. I was holding on for $205 and maybe a 70% take of the 76c credit, at least 50c net, anyway. I'm just too greedy to be a fifty percenter...
Good strikes ... .

Me, I want my candy pretty much, well, now ... . But taking things out at 50% max entails a lot of juggling if you want to have skin in the game constantly ... . Most of this 45 DTE stuff gets taken at 50% max in fairly short order (at least it seems that way), so I gotta constantly be putting stuff on to keep a certain level on ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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