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  • #10,041
  • Aug 11, 2015 1:27am Aug 11, 2015 1:27am
Quoting The Fool
no shit, China trying to revive flatlining export economy, watch for US exporters to take some lumps in turn....
If this premise is valid, who do you expect to suffer? Apple, Ford, Coke? Need to identify US exporters whose business will suffer from the strengthening USD/CNY....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,042
  • Aug 11, 2015 2:01am Aug 11, 2015 2:01am
coal exporters? The crash of the US coal industry is something I knew all about but totally missed as a trade. Pity....sometimes the most obvious things staring you right in the face are the ones you miss....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,043
  • Aug 11, 2015 2:26am Aug 11, 2015 2:26am
Greek bailout looking like a done deal. I thought about buying NBG shares at 80c on Monday morning, also looking at long GREK...might be a good trade....I might've just had too much Greek though...can't get into it.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,044
  • Aug 11, 2015 2:32am Aug 11, 2015 2:32am
euro bid now & will prolly catch bids on bailout news....wonky buzz I hear is China devaluation is just another disinflationary impact that puts in question a Fed move to tighten....FXE short plays on back burner now
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,045
  • Aug 11, 2015 2:38am Aug 11, 2015 2:38am
Hi TF... I just read this

How to anger Asia, Fed in one go: Devalue the yuan

Don't know what to think about that. Market initial reaction was to go down on it.

Another thing - that move from yesterday was short covering, due to the so called "poor low" from Friday. When you look at charts, you can see that in one point, the down move On Friday have stopped, just a few points bellow sma200, stalled there, bears was unable to push trough, and then there was rally in final hour. Market was overly short, and we got a short covering rally on Monday, fueled by Crude bouncing, China rally, Buffet acquisition... The Market Profile is helpful there - to determine a type of day, Monday have nice "p" shape, typical for short covering.

I am just not clever enough to calculate this Chinese yuan news. If it wasn't on table, usually after short covering day inside a range, we would get some small daily candle and next day down again.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,046
  • Aug 11, 2015 2:43am Aug 11, 2015 2:43am
Quoting StrayDog
I am just not clever enough to calculate this Chinese yuan news. If it wasn't on table, usually after short covering day inside a range, we would get some small daily candle and next day down again.
Me neither, lots of news coming from different directions, but time will tell. No shame in keeping your head down when things get dicey, best way to keep it from getting shot off....I think it's safe to foretell more pressure on commods if the USD s going to get stronger, but I am holding off there, too.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,047
  • Aug 11, 2015 5:17am Aug 11, 2015 5:17am
Quoting StrayDog
Hi TF... I just read this How to anger Asia, Fed in one go: Devalue the yuan Don't know what to think about that. Market initial reaction was to go down on it. Another thing - that move from yesterday was short covering, due to the so called "poor low" from Friday. When you look at charts, you can see that in one point, the down move On Friday have stopped, just a few points bellow sma200, stalled there, bears was unable to push trough, and then...
Yes, doesn't look good. Looks like Friday and Monday were a bull trap. ZB very well bid. Ugh.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,048
  • Aug 11, 2015 5:47am Aug 11, 2015 5:47am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} the SPX did recapture the 200dma on Friday. The world and his wife will be watching that 200dma closely from now on, and I cynically expect another test in the next few weeks, and for that test to fail, and for the talking heads on cnbc to wet their knickers, and lots of people to foretell doom and gloom, and to see a sharp move to the downside. But that will probably be just be another buying opportunity in this bull market.
Looks like I should've said "in a few hours"...not cynical enough, it would seem.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,049
  • Aug 11, 2015 5:50am Aug 11, 2015 5:50am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} If this premise is valid, who do you expect to suffer? Apple, Ford, Coke? Need to identify US exporters whose business will suffer from the strengthening USD/CNY....
Not sure how price sensitive the Chinese are for Apple stuff. To date, it looks like they've not been, seeing as they pay so much more as a proportion of their salary, but maybe once the economy loses its magic fairy dust, people will start to become less optimistic, more cautious, and hunker down, and that could be very bad for Apple/AAPL.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,050
  • Aug 11, 2015 8:38am Aug 11, 2015 8:38am
BTFD Boogyeman never far away....just don't do it....don't look in the mirror and say "BTFD" 5 times.....omg
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,051
  • Aug 11, 2015 8:47am Aug 11, 2015 8:47am
Quoting The Fool
Greek bailout looking like a done deal. I thought about buying NBG shares at 80c on Monday morning, also looking at long GREK...might be a good trade....I might've just had too much Greek though...can't get into it.
NBG was the trade I missed this week, also obvious....I have lost that killer instinct...trying to get it back
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,052
  • Aug 11, 2015 8:55am Aug 11, 2015 8:55am
This reversal of yesterday looks pretty bad. Looks to me like the bottom of the range on SPX etc. is now more likely to be tested before the top.
God this trading lark is so hard. I've had a very good few months but right now I'm absolutely knackered by the sheer unrelenting pressure of holding leveraged positions and trying to figure out wtf the market has up its sleeve.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,053
  • Aug 11, 2015 9:21am Aug 11, 2015 9:21am
Quoting Boy Wonder
trying to figure out wtf the market has up its sleeve.
not easy when every single fucking CB on the planet has wild cards that they play on a whim without fail
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,054
  • Aug 11, 2015 9:34am Aug 11, 2015 9:34am
I filled a HYG Sep/Sep4 $84p calendar for $0.12
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,055
  • Aug 11, 2015 9:51am Aug 11, 2015 9:51am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} not easy when every single fucking CB on the planet has wild cards that they play on a whim without fail
you got that right
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,056
  • Aug 11, 2015 9:54am Aug 11, 2015 9:54am
DJIA -> Death cross is ON...

Attached Image


Mr. Market, feel free to press the Panic Button.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,057
  • Aug 11, 2015 10:33am Aug 11, 2015 10:33am
Quoting StrayDog
DJIA -> Death cross is ON... {image} Mr. Market, feel free to press the Panic Button.
On the NYSE Comp also. Only thing I can say is that oftentimes I have observed that the death crossover day itself turns out to be a short-term buying opportunity but I'm not buying today, for sure.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #10,058
  • Aug 11, 2015 10:42am Aug 11, 2015 10:42am
Quoting StrayDog
DJIA -> Death cross is ON... {image} Mr. Market, feel free to press the Panic Button.
Somewhat maddening, this whipsaw ... . But I'm going to roll the dice a bit here and throw on a couple short call verts in FXE with 112+ as BE, a Sep 25 112/115 for .29 (filled), and a Dec 112/115 for .66 (not yet filled) ... . I considered going way out (Jan) and throwing on a short put vert with a BE below 100, but thought the better of it ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,059
  • Aug 11, 2015 10:50am Aug 11, 2015 10:50am
Quoting Boy Wonder
This reversal of yesterday looks pretty bad. Looks to me like the bottom of the range on SPX etc. is now more likely to be tested before the top. God this trading lark is so hard. I've had a very good few months but right now I'm absolutely knackered by the sheer unrelenting pressure of holding leveraged positions and trying to figure out wtf the market has up its sleeve.
And here I thought that trading indices would be less nerve-wracking than monkeying around with individual underlyings ... . It's a very manic thing. Yesterday, I was frankly thinking that we could see a retest of YTD highs in SPY with that 210 ... . In a matter of hours, a whole different story ... . Tomorrow will be totally different ... . Or more of the same ... . Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,060
  • Aug 11, 2015 10:58am Aug 11, 2015 10:58am
Fortunately, I took the opportunity yesterday to roll out some QQQ short call sides of IC's with short strikes at 111 and 112 for credits (too aggressive when I put them on) ... . Price has been flopping across that 111 on and off again ... .

Now that I look at that UNG short straddle during market hours, I am not so fond of it. The liquidity just ain't there. For such a cheap instrument, bid/ask should be tight ... . It's like .07 wide for the 13.5's 45 DTE ... . Pass.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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