vsa with Malcolm

Crude Oil possible Daily ND forming... and this after Monday was a gap down below support on opening, up to support during the day closing towards the low on decent (but not excessive volume). Seems to be shouting continued weakness on Oil (which usually means USD strength will be seen and weakness on commodity driven pairs like the CDN dollar etc...)

I am already short a few longer term positions on Oil, may be time to add on again.

Let's see how this plays out into market close today and then in days to come.

had some fun on these islands y'day

Here is a usd/cad buy I took today. I saw support, and i based my entry on price driving down and closing on the high on higher volume.

Oil makes a new multi-month low as Pres78 buys private island......Film at 11.

Yes but my CDN dollars are becoming worthless so it's a trade off ... making money selling Oil but I am stuck with trading account full of worthless currency. What a life!

If anyone had shorted GBPJPY please post your charts, thank you.

Amazing... the GBP moves all started on the 1 minute candle before the "news" was released. 13:59 (server time) candle the move had already begun. Gotta love it.

Hi pres78, it must be early morning in Canada!

I was keeping an eye on this pair since noon today (India time)

Bar 2 here is a no-selling pressure, but all the weakness before & after it makes it a polar bear in Hawaii.

After bars 3,4 & 5 I was only waiting for an effort to push below the support & voila!

Go Oil Go!!!

Nice call.
Now if only Gas prices in Vancouver would drop a few cents...

Very simple chart on what I saw, no need to complicate things. Markets lately have been failing after new highs and lows. Summer chop.
I'm not big into the spot market anymore but price and volume tell the story in Context.

This week our gas here on the East coast sits at $1.119 per liter (well in my province anyway) so way better than the $1.45 we saw back when Oil was $150 per barrel. Still I miss the days of my youth when gas was less than $0.80.

Nice chart.

I've been debating whether or not to post this, but I'm bored. So I will. This is in response to an email I got the other day.

I've been having some issues with volume lately. While I have long said, "trade what you see". I have been struggling a bit with doing just that. Mainly it has to do with changes in the volume on my charts after a "refresh or restart". But also in the larger context. That is, when volume differs from one platform to another.

Take a look at the chart below.

There is a "beautiful" story here. I like my story better than Vcv13's story. Which is not to say that Vc's story is wrong, I just like mine better. But more to the point, my story falls apart with a simple "refresh" or another broker.

I should back up and tell my story.

1: The market is clearly balancing after a vertical up move seen at the left side of the chart. As we approach the high of this balance area, we see a Level 2 Buying Aggression bar. Aggression moves the markets. On this bar the buyers are willing to pay up and hit the offer (at the market), while the sellers are passively letting their limit orders be taken out. For every buyer, there is a seller. The side that is more aggressive, moves price.

2: Price moves up and takes out the old high. But the bar is a narrow range bar on increasing volume that closes of its high. This is a Squat. We Order Flow traders would note the absorption on this bar. We VSAers might go as far as to call this a "end of a rising market".

3: This bar 2 in Vcv13's chart. On my chart , we have a wide range down bar on increasing volume. Moreover, what we have is a Level 2 Selling Aggression bar after the absorption (squat) interval, that closes below the low of the Level 2 Buying bar. This is important, as we would expect the low of the Level 2 Buying Aggression bar to hold. The fact that the low did not hold means something. The fact that it did not hold as a Level 2 Selling Aggression bar closes lower, means more.

We do get some follow through below the low of this Level 2 Selling bar. We also note, that the high of this bar never does get breach, let alone tested. But before we note all that, we note that this is the first Level 2 Selling Aggression bar that has been seen. So as much as anything else, if not more than anything else, this is the bar that is signaling that something is changing.

4 & 5: No Demand followed by an Up Thrust. Both of these bars do confirm. And they are both confirmation of the weakness that has appeared.

6: A Level 3 (extreme) Selling Aggression bar that breaks out of the balance area as we move from balanced market to vertical down market.

Okay, so that's my story. Bar 3 is of course the bar of most concern. It is true that a Level 2 Selling Aggression bar can come on decreasing volume. Since we are looking at more than just volume. We're looking at Order Flow, Range, Velocity, Price Action, Intensity and other things. But if this interval does indeed have decreasing volume, that would make it a "No Selling Pressure" bar, things don't make so much sense.

Then there is my bar 2. For me it is an example of Absorption and is a Squat. But on V's chart, this is a narrow range up bar on decreasing volume. Not even volume less than the previous two. That would make it a No Demand. No Demand as price "niks" a previous high (see the above post by Sonofsin5). If bar 2 is less weak than I have been lead to believe, then it is less likely that I can see bar 3 as as "polar bear in Hawaii".

So this is where my head has been lately. There is no question that volume is important. I take that back. There is a question. Vc and HG both were seeing the same thing, yet both had different volume on key intervals. Slight differences in the candle's construction (PA) don't seem to effect the analysis as much as slight differences in volume does. Again, I noted that my 2 could be called "an end of a rising market". Well, Gavin says that's the strongest VSA signal there is. That and bag holding. Yet, on another platform, it is a no big deal narrow range up bar on decreasing volume. Therefore, it's potentially the strongest indication of weakness or an average signal of weakness. Price ultimately falls so some say "what does it matter?". It matters because price falls and volume was not the constant. "lines were constant, moving averages were constant, many indicators would be constant. But the "foot print" of the large players was not.

I am not giving up on volume by any means. In fact, my resolve has actually been strengthened. It's just time to stop saying "trade what you see". And say,"Before you trade what you see, make sure you trust your broker and your data".

Are you using the free F.XCM feed for Ensign by chance? That volume feed I've noticed is THE worst, it also doesn't match up with F.XCM or my Sierra Chart F.XCM data (which also doesn't match up with mt4 F.XCM data, but is better imo).

HI fellow Traders..
Anyone heard for Malcolm lately? I just returned to this forum after a couple year hiatus, good to see your still here HG.

Cheers

scary

Still I'd like to point out a few things, the foot prints in question would depend on at what level your point of view is, i.e, micro (bar to bar) or macro (a wider time frame).

At the macro level I don't see any discrepancies between our charts.

On the micro level:

Volume on the bars that you call "Level 3 buying aggression" (wide spread up bar on the left), bar no.4 & bar no. 6 on your chart is same as it is on my chart.

If you have noticed the next bar immediately after bar# 3 (Level 2 Selling bar) on your chart, it made a lower low on slightly decreasing volume (not so on my chart) implying there was no selling pressure.

Now at the same level on my chart, bar# 2 (bar# 3 on your chart) itself made the lower low here & that too not on increasing volume implying there was no selling pressure, so the conclusion from the price action (at this level) is same on our charts, no discrepancies even though volume is different.

Bar# 2 on your chart, a squat, but the close of this bar is within the range (selling pressure), this bar on my chart is showing slightly decreasing volume, it is not a 24 carat no-demand but the squattish sentiments of this bar is also clearly visible on my chart. It is between a no-demand & a squat, but what is of more important here is the results & the results are same on my chart as well as yours, i.e two down bars.

The most important bar if you ask me was bar# 6 on your chart, the deal maker for me, all the bulls in the range were delivered one final knockout blow here by the bears.

I've noticed that too.

I need to learn how to program for Sierra Chart or some other platform. Actually, maybe you can help me. What are your thoughts on Market Delta or Investor/RT?

I was just reading today on Ensigns site how F.XCM doesn't even give them the volume feed, they piece it back together from bid/ask.
And man I wish I could program as well, so many things I want to do with Sierra Chart. My thoughts are Sierra is the best damn charting software around, I've used them all, I just need to learn to program. Investor RT is cool, its like the original Market Delta. I just started making a series of short videos to help people get started with Sierra Chart, well basically just how to set it up how I like it. I also am talking to a really good programmer who lives right by me, and we are in the early stages of making a keyboard and software interface for a few platforms, Sierra Chart being the first or second one we're going to work on.
Back to your question, I think Sierra can do almost all, like 90% of what MD does, for much cheaper, and the staff at Sierra helps out a lot and is willing to incorporate new ideas fast. The only thing I've found Sierra lacking for market profile is being able to have a volume profile of X number of days/weeks on the far right, that is separate from the market profiles. The only volume feed better than Sierra's F.XCM feed is FXpig, that I've noticed at least, and it's so minor that I barely look at other feeds anymore. I usually overlay futures volume onto spot FX price charts anyway, something Sierra does a great job with.

Since the ND printed we made our way lower back into support. All signs into the end of last week were showing some weakening of the sellers interest as lower prices were made so I made the decision last night when the markets opened to close out ALL of my Oil shorts.

Too early to tell and for the moment I am neutral but I suspect we may be in for a move up from here at least to somewhere in the $48 to $50 area.

Supporting this commodity pairs like CAD and AUD seem to be lining up for some strengthening moves and most of the USD pairs seem to be showing some imminent USD weakness.

Let's see how things play out in the coming days.

Oil supply found at low of August 5th 1hr volume zone (Also RN $45 level).

There were a few nice chances to take some day trade shorts on the way down.

Daily volume leaves me unconvinced currently on conviction of sellers or if this is a buyer driven mark down. Time will tell.

New month low just printed, the daily close and volume should give some clues as to the future movements.