Crude Oil... free fall? | Forex Factory

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Crude Oil... free fall?

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 7, 2015 5:11am Aug 7, 2015 5:11am
Hello everybody, when do you think the price will stop falling in the mid term?
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  • #2
  • Aug 7, 2015 11:03am Aug 7, 2015 11:03am
Probably a moment of rest....
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  • #3
  • Aug 8, 2015 5:27am Aug 8, 2015 5:27am
For light crude WTI i think a trader can safely eye 42,5 and from here we will face major psychological level at 40 which will be next target.

But i dont recognize your symbol
  • #4
  • Aug 8, 2015 5:30am Aug 8, 2015 5:30am
Heavily bearish territory IMO. no signs of weakness in momentum
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  • #5
  • Aug 8, 2015 8:51am Aug 8, 2015 8:51am
Bco= brent crude oil
  • #6
  • Aug 8, 2015 11:15am Aug 8, 2015 11:15am
Thanks. Highly probably in the mid term it will continue to fall.

(My symbol is Brent Oil, btw)
  • #7
  • Aug 8, 2015 4:25pm Aug 8, 2015 4:25pm
Quoting algorafmad
Thanks. Highly probably in the mid term it will continue to fall. (My symbol is Brent Oil, btw)
heavly bearish, but it would be great choice to buy it around 43ish area TP 45 area
Let me fill my acount wallet then will take Ur advice
  • #8
  • Aug 8, 2015 4:55pm Aug 8, 2015 4:55pm
Why try to predict? No one can ever predict where prices will go. Well at least not in the long term which is what matters anyway. Sure you get a couple calls right or some streak. But trying to predict where the exact turning point will be is a gamblers fallacy.

This downtrend is definitely due to fundamental themes- being that the excess supply from high oil production, slowing demand from big industrial producers AKA China in contraction phase of the business cycle. This theme is also to be seen in other commodities such as metals. While no signs of a reversal have popped up here or in any of the areas showing a positive outlook for oil, it would not be out the question to say is oil going to drop further. And to that I would answer yes, oil will most likely make new lows and could easily go another leg down to 30's. Just short the rally.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #9
  • Aug 8, 2015 5:31pm Aug 8, 2015 5:31pm
increased supply, decreased demand, and USD strength - the triple whammy for oil prices. Oil producers are caught in a negative feedback loop: the lower the price goes, the more they must produce to service their debt, stay in business, feed their populations, etc - and the more they (over)produce, the lower the price of oil goes.

http://www.financialsense.com/contri...ollars-for-oil
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10
  • Aug 8, 2015 6:08pm Aug 8, 2015 6:08pm
Quoting algorafmad
Thanks. Highly probably in the mid term it will continue to fall. (My symbol is Brent Oil, btw)
Ok, I would suggest you look into WTI for more competitive spread. I am from norway and would like to trade brent (north sea oil) as well. But since the spread is almost twice i stay with WTI light crude.

However, i would be more skeptic to selling Brent then WTI now, I will not be suprised to see the spread between WTI and BRENT increase over the next week/s.

from a technical perspective we have left oversold area and i expect momentum to slow down at the same time we are trading at previously rejected levels.

And for fun: i heard that a break of 40 in WTI may accelerate fall against 20 level, to be clear i dont target that level and would be absolutely shocked if we will ever see 20 ish
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  • #11
  • Aug 9, 2015 8:09am Aug 9, 2015 8:09am
Quoting NWGstudent
{quote} Ok, I would suggest you look into WTI for more competitive spread. I am from norway and would like to trade brent (north sea oil) as well. But since the spread is almost twice i stay with WTI light crude. However, i would be more skeptic to selling Brent then WTI now, I will not be suprised to see the spread between WTI and BRENT increase over the next week/s.
This is my exact thought about Brent. (How much is it the spread with your broker, btw? With OANDA is roughly 3.0/4.0 pips (30-40 pipettes) and I enter intraday when I've got a nice enough signal: I generally end up well, but I feel like the spread eats a bit too much of my profits.
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  • #12
  • Aug 9, 2015 8:13am Aug 9, 2015 8:13am
Quoting Rtm
Why try to predict? No one can ever predict where prices will go. Well at least not in the long term which is what matters anyway. Sure you get a couple calls right or some streak. But trying to predict where the exact turning point will be is a gamblers fallacy. This downtrend is definitely due to fundamental themes- being that the excess supply from high oil production, slowing demand from big industrial producers AKA China in contraction phase of the business cycle. This theme is also to be seen in other commodities such as metals. While no signs...
Although the fundamental themes you mentioned are definitely playing the biggest part in deciding the price I do believe that the market "sentiment" plays a big role too: I'm of course not trying to predict the exact turning point, but I think it could be possible to imagine when other traders will start to fell like entering in a less defined trend zone.
  • #13
  • Aug 9, 2015 9:23am Aug 9, 2015 9:23am
Quoting algorafmad
{quote} This is my exact thought about Brent. (How much is it the spread with your broker, btw? With OANDA is roughly 3.0/4.0 pips (30-40 pipettes) and I enter intraday when I've got a nice enough signal: I generally end up well, but I feel like the spread eats a bit too much of my profits. {image}
Cheap spread, IC markets and BRENT are 6-8 pips while WTI 4-5
  • #14
  • Aug 9, 2015 11:06am Aug 9, 2015 11:06am
wti sub $40, probably <$36...on the USD strength spike attending initiation of rate normalization beginning this Fall

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/whats-...100400920.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15
  • Aug 9, 2015 6:00pm Aug 9, 2015 6:00pm
How low do you think Brent can go? Can it go below 40? Where should we expect to see the bottom?
  • #16
  • Aug 9, 2015 11:22pm Aug 9, 2015 11:22pm
Quoting Trader19
How low do you think Brent can go? Can it go below 40? Where should we expect to see the bottom?
I'm not sure if you are asking me, but anyway - I only trade wti derivatives and don't pay so much attention to Brent & the Brent/wti spread. Some of the other oil traders here have noted they think the spread will widen and I might concur there, but I don't have a number in mind for Brent. I still think $36 low for wti is on the table this Fall if we see another strong surge in USD strength.....which itself is likely if/when the Fed starts to raise the fed funds rate in Sept....

All that said, I don't have any oil trades on now, am waiting for moves lower to play out. Good luck all....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17
  • Aug 11, 2015 3:22am Aug 11, 2015 3:22am
Daily Crude given a buy signal today.

I'm long, 45.11 looking for 150 cents
  • #18
  • Aug 11, 2015 3:35am Aug 11, 2015 3:35am
Quoting Trader19
How low do you think Brent can go? Can it go below 40? Where should we expect to see the bottom?
It's sitting just above the 61.8% fib retracement from the low. If it breaks this, then it'll probably fall to the 76.4% @ 5,100, but I's expect it to find good support around this level, maybe dropping to 5,000, but I don't expect it to fall below this. What you've got to remember though is that this fall has been heavily manipulated, there is no fundamental reason why the price of oil has dropped so low, such as over supply, so anything is possible here. It is all down essentially to the US attempting to destroy the Russian economy, so we could see it fall lower.
  • #19
  • Aug 11, 2015 9:48pm Aug 11, 2015 9:48pm
i copped it.

no more buys till there some real evidence to go long.
  • #20
  • Aug 12, 2015 3:41am Aug 12, 2015 3:41am
Quoting cat
{quote} It's sitting just above the 61.8% fib retracement from the low. If it breaks this, then it'll probably fall to the 76.4% @ 5,100, but I's expect it to find good support around this level, maybe dropping to 5,000, but I don't expect it to fall below this. What you've got to remember though is that this fall has been heavily manipulated, there is no fundamental reason why the price of oil has dropped so low, such as over supply, so anything is possible here. It is all down essentially to the US attempting to destroy the Russian economy,...
I'd like to stress a lot this point. The price is not given just by 1) Production/Need ratio; 2) Traders' activities.
Nowadays, manipulating the market is the biggest war weapon rich Countries have.
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