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Support and Resistance Method - Pharley

  • #141
  • Aug 8, 2015 4:36am Aug 8, 2015 4:36am
Quoting rover99x
Hi pharley Thanks for sharing your method on S&R. I've been trading for a few years now using Support and Resistance and really suffer from not being able to trust my own judgement. I love your discipline you've described and the way that you have moulded things to suit your personality. I would like to follow you on your journey and to contribute where I can to your thread. A couple of questions: Do you take into account any fundamentals at all or is it all purely PA? Plus do you look at any commodities like Metals or Crude? Best Wishes
Hi Rover,

and welcome. I don't really take account of any fundamentals. Any good news is in the charts. Any bad news is in the charts. So I'm not really bothered about the news - I listen to it, read it. Can't help it, hence above where I say the Aussie might go down somewhat yet. But for me it's all PA.

No I don't trade commodities - I just like the currencies!

Cheers
  • #142
  • Aug 8, 2015 4:40am Aug 8, 2015 4:40am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Dutchpips; It's all about scale, perception and interpretation. {image} {image}
Hi Steve & Dutchpips,

Thanks for the post Steve - that's exactly right Dutchpips. It's always important to look at the higher timeframes and take your cues from them.

I hadn't really seen the GBPAUD coming down a bit - I tend to have a few days away from it (charts, analysis etc) after a run.
  • #143
  • Aug 8, 2015 4:47am Aug 8, 2015 4:47am
OK some interesting things to look out for this week:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cT_cs_1016412_AUDCAD_2015-08-08_19-43-05.png Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cT_cs_1016412_AUDJPY_2015-08-08_19-43-54.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cT_cs_1016412_AUDUSD_2015-08-08_19-45-12.png Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cT_cs_1016412_NZDUSD_2015-08-08_19-41-56.png Size: 20 KB
  • #144
  • Aug 8, 2015 4:48am Aug 8, 2015 4:48am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cT_cs_1016412_EURAUD_2015-08-08_19-47-51.png Size: 33 KB
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cT_cs_1016412_GBPUSD_2015-08-08_19-50-29.png Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cT_cs_1016412_USDCAD_2015-08-08_19-53-14.png Size: 22 KB
  • #145
  • Aug 8, 2015 4:57am Aug 8, 2015 4:57am
Worth keeping your eye on USDCHF as well in case it starts to move up away from the current channel.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf4hr.PNG Size: 49 KB
  • #146
  • Aug 8, 2015 5:04am Aug 8, 2015 5:04am
It's always easier somehow to draw the SR areas on the larger timeframes. They don't have to be exact - hell, mine aren't. But it reminds me when I'm looking at charts to keep these areas in mind.

I leave the lines drawn on for ages - until they aren't needed any more. So there's some interesting ones there to watch, look for bounces and plan some entries.

Good luck all.

Cheers
  • #147
  • Aug 8, 2015 5:07am Aug 8, 2015 5:07am
Hi Pharley, the EA has already rejected at support with two bullish candles and it has retraced 50% of this rejective move up. Would this already be an active trade?
  • #148
  • Aug 8, 2015 5:11am Aug 8, 2015 5:11am
Quoting Subaal
Hi Pharley, the EA has already rejected at support with two bullish candles and it has retraced 50% of this rejective move up. Would this already be an active trade?
Hi Subaal,

I'm not sure which you're talking about. Also I don't use EAs with trading - tried them, along with a zillion indicators and they're just not for me.

Cheers
  • #149
  • Aug 8, 2015 5:21am Aug 8, 2015 5:21am
Here's why I love trading channels as part of all this - look at this chart. It looks a bit confusing, but it shows a channel, retracements to 50% plus retracing to support, pin bars, inside bars. Then look at the 4hr chart - so many entry possibilities. Channels are terrific fun.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cT_cs_1016412_EURAUD_2015-08-08_20-15-08.png Size: 42 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cT_cs_1016412_EURAUD_2015-08-08_20-19-46.png Size: 38 KB
  • #150
  • Aug 8, 2015 5:36am Aug 8, 2015 5:36am
Quoting pharley
{quote} Hi Subaal, I'm not sure which you're talking about. Also I don't use EAs with trading - tried them, along with a zillion indicators and they're just not for me. Cheers
I meant Eur Aud chart u posted above. Sorry for the confusion.
  • #151
  • Aug 8, 2015 5:37am Aug 8, 2015 5:37am
Breaking that 1d and 4hr chart of eudaud down to a 1hour timeframe for an entry - (for those who want to look for trades on the shorter timeframe). You can still use the larger timeframes to target these sort of entries. Nice pin at resistance turned to support, play the pin, SL at red line, TP at about 90% of the last range upwards at yellow line. That's about 130 pips for a 37 pip risk. Can't really see how to get in multiple times though! Could enter at a given % of the run, but I prefer to let PA tell me where to enter for further trades. What is interesting (look for these things) is that price went back to the high range (yellow line) and fell away again for a short time - that's people closing trades and taking money off the table.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud 1hr.PNG Size: 38 KB
  • #152
  • Aug 8, 2015 5:43am Aug 8, 2015 5:43am
Quoting Subaal
{quote} I meant Eur Aud chart u posted above. Sorry for the confusion.
Ah you mean like this one below - yes it would be fine. You don't win them all although this one wouldn't have hit SL yet. but it's a valid trade off rising support (channel support).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cT_cs_1016412_EURAUD_2015-08-08_20-42-19.png Size: 33 KB
  • #153
  • Aug 8, 2015 5:51am Aug 8, 2015 5:51am
Thats the one Pharley. So if this eventually goes up we can add a trade when h4 closes above previous days highs as per your rules.
Is there any rules for example the first trade has to be in profit befor adding trades or the stoploss point of potential trade 2 must be higher than trade one's entry. I.e. trading when first trade can be locked and exposure to market would only be 1 trades worth at any given time the stops decide to be taken out.
Thanks for your time and response.
  • #154
  • Edited 6:46am Aug 8, 2015 6:02am | Edited 6:46am
Quoting Subaal
Thats the one Pharley. So if this eventually goes up we can add a trade when h4 closes above previous days highs as per your rules. Is there any rules for example the first trade has to be in profit befor adding trades or the stoploss point of potential trade 2 must be higher than trade one's entry. I.e. trading when first trade can be locked and exposure to market would only be 1 trades worth at any given time the stops decide to be taken out. Thanks for your time and response.
Hi Subaal,

For me, a valid entry would have been that 50% retrace, or wait until the 4hr closes above yesterday's high. Looking at the chart now, I'd wait until price moves back up to the 50% retrace point and probably enter there.

The first trade I enter at half my normal risk as I don't know what price will do. Other trades are entered at my full risk level - with this proviso - For a second and subsequent trades, it doesn't matter to me if the first one or 2 are in profit I will take a trade if the entry is there. What I will do though is work out what my total risk will be on all trades that are at risk, and adjust my lot size to ensure my total overall risk remains the same or as close as I can get to it. As soon as I can move trades SL to BE then I do it. Think of these rules as guidelines rather than hard and fast rules. All I'm trying to do is maximise profits through multiple entries while at the same time minimise risk through the money & risk mgt approach that I use.

Normally a trade would have to move away then I wait for price to give me a PA sign that I can enter again - normally at that point I can move my stops up from all previous trades to the current trade SL and most trades are then normally at BE or better, except the latest one. Hope that makes sense!

Cheers
  • #155
  • Aug 8, 2015 9:01am Aug 8, 2015 9:01am
Quoting pharley
{quote} Hi Subaal, For me, a valid entry would have been that 50% retrace, or wait until the 4hr closes above yesterday's high. Looking at the chart now, I'd wait until price moves back up to the 50% retrace point and probably enter there. The first trade I enter at half my normal risk as I don't know what price will do. Other trades are entered at my full risk level - with this proviso - For a second and subsequent trades, it doesn't matter to me if the first one or 2 are in profit I will take a trade if the entry is there. What I will do though...
Hi pharley.
Thanks for this wonderful thread. There's sth here i don't really understand. when you say 50% percent retracement i don't understand how do you draw them. Is there any special indicator. I remember you said you use a modified fibo. could you explain more about it?
  • #156
  • Aug 8, 2015 10:45pm Aug 8, 2015 10:45pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD.png Size: 69 KB

Hi, Look at the set up , Very likely will go down long way , or i could be wrong as China .......
Will see ,
  • #157
  • Aug 9, 2015 6:03am Aug 9, 2015 6:03am
Hello i am Donald and new at forex. I have been reading this forum and installed the expert.
What i like about it that there is not a big fall down in pips.
I have backtested the expert on the eur/usd but in the long run i donīt make a profit.
Maybey it is the setting that is wrong.
Is there an profitible setting for the eur/usd with this expert.
Happy trading
  • #158
  • Aug 9, 2015 7:48am Aug 9, 2015 7:48am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Dutchpips; It's all about scale, perception and interpretation. {image} {image}
Hi Stevepatt, thanks for your reply! Looking at your perspective, a short would not be a good idea here! Although this could have been a profitable one .
  • #159
  • Aug 9, 2015 10:18am Aug 9, 2015 10:18am
Quoting pharley
{quote} Hi Subaal, For me, a valid entry would have been that 50% retrace, or wait until the 4hr closes above yesterday's high. Looking at the chart now, I'd wait until price moves back up to the 50% retrace point and probably enter there. The first trade I enter at half my normal risk as I don't know what price will do. Other trades are entered at my full risk level - with this proviso - For a second and subsequent trades, it doesn't matter to me if the first one or 2 are in profit I will take a trade if the entry is there. What I will do though...
Hi Pharley, Thanks for all the examples, they are really helpfull! Due to time issues I can not look for setups for all of them at the moment but lets start with the EURAUD at the moment.

What do you think about long the GBPUSD? It is testing the weekly resistance and pin on the 4Hr.

I thought I read somewhere that you do not use a % for your risk. How do you calculate your risk?

Thanks!
  • #160
  • Aug 9, 2015 11:08am Aug 9, 2015 11:08am
Quoting Dutchpips
{quote} Hi Stevepatt, thanks for your reply! Looking at your perspective, a short would not be a good idea here! Although this could have been a profitable one .
Hi Dutchpips;

I thought the idea of this method was to have Weekly and or Monthly Levels of Support/Resistance marked on the Charts and then look for PA on the Daily TF at these Levels of Support/Resistance.

Once you have seen PA on the Daily TF, Pin Bars-Engulfing Bars etc, drop down to the H4 Chart to look for entries.

This Weeks Candle tells me there is strong Resistance above next Week start looking for Bearish Setups to Trade Short.

This Weeks Candle didn't form at an obvious level of Resistance often you only know S/R is present after the Weekly Candle has formed, see the image below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9th Aug 15 GBP:AUD W1 Chart.png Size: 123 KB
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