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  • #9,941
  • Aug 7, 2015 5:39pm Aug 7, 2015 5:39pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Virtually every person at work I've talked to is going to "ride it out" in their 401(k) without touching a thing and will continue to buy at these highs and then effectively chase price lower every payday when a portion of their check is taken out for the 401(k)
I know people in the same boat who have been making (well, up until the end of 2014, anyway) more in their buy/hold 401k's than they do at the actual job - everybody a genius in a bull market. Then it's time to sell, which few do....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,942
  • Aug 7, 2015 5:52pm Aug 7, 2015 5:52pm
Quoting The Fool
what up, Cecil - are you still in TWTR puts?
got out and made some $s but still in my AAPL trade, looking for a $40 run either way. Got until DEC expiry on them. Monday will look to do a long strangle on SPY and also looking for a run on that too
  • #9,943
  • Aug 7, 2015 5:53pm Aug 7, 2015 5:53pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} May I ask which expiries and which strikes? Surely you're collecting pennies for going out so far when the VIX is so low?
The other thing I meant to mention is that, while I do watch VXX and other VIX products (because I'm in VIX product trades), I focus primarily on what the individual underlying's IV and IVR are. Ideally, you're looking for both high IVR and high IV to sell premium ... . Some products, like SPY, are just never that volatile, with an IV that has been stuck between like 12.5 and 20 for like at least three months. So an IV of 20 is high for that product, and the IVR will reflect that, with a 100 indicating that IV is at the top end of its historical range for that underlying ... . So, I think it's safe to say that I would be more than happy to enter a premium selling play in SPY if IV was around 20 and the IVR was 100 since the IV and IVR are both high for that particular instrument.

In comparison, FXI (iShares China large cap) has had an IV of between 27.5 and 45 for the past 90 days ... . When its IV is around 28 (which is more volatile than SPY has been), its IVR is, like 0, because its IV is at the low end of its historical range ... . For me, this would be an unattractive premium selling play; IV is low for that underlying and its IVR is low as well ... .

Fortunately, there's a tool on Dough to at least screen out low IVR plays from the git-go:

Attached Image


Naturally, not all underlyings with high IVR's will be productive ... . Sometimes the options are illiquid (bid/ask spread too wide), they won't have weekly expiries (no weeklies indicates that there is not enough interest in the U/L's options to bother with weeklies, so it likely to be less liquid), or there just isn't enough juice in a trade to dick with ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,944
  • Aug 7, 2015 6:04pm Aug 7, 2015 6:04pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I know people in the same boat who have been making (well, up until the end of 2014, anyway) more in their buy/hold 401k's than they do at the actual job - everybody a genius in a bull market. Then it's time to sell, which few do....
I know a couple of guys like that; the ones who have been around for 30 years ... . But it would seem to me that those guys would be even more wary of another .com bubble, another 2008 ... . They just refuse to reallocate to something other than equities since they don't pay attention to the markets; the broad market index funds they're in have been ripping for the past 6 years ... . They're convinced it's going to go on forever even though it's been going nowhere since at least mid-March ... . 2.43% YTD is nothing to hoot about ... . http://quicktake.morningstar.com/ind...spx?Symbol=SPX

That 2001-02 ... Ouch ... . http://www.1stock1.com/1stock1_141.htm
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,945
  • Aug 7, 2015 6:09pm Aug 7, 2015 6:09pm
---> lol --- http://finance.yahoo.com/news/carl-i...191326031.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,946
  • Aug 7, 2015 6:10pm Aug 7, 2015 6:10pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} waiting on Euro, FXE to do a 8 month strangle that should be enough time to take it out of ranges that's been laid down over the last couple of months, FXY the YEN will be the next big move, don't ask me direction cus I don't know or bothered, tha is the beauty of trading options
Yen is not far away, will start to take a small strangle position on leaps maybe 18 months out, IV is cheap at the moment
  • #9,947
  • Aug 7, 2015 6:10pm Aug 7, 2015 6:10pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I know a couple of guys like that; the ones who have been around for 30 years ... .
being able to stick around and learn some lessons is key.....I got started late.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,948
  • Aug 7, 2015 6:12pm Aug 7, 2015 6:12pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I know a couple of guys like that; the ones who have been around for 30 years ... . But it would seem to me that those guys would be even more wary of another .com bubble, another 2008 ... . They just refuse to reallocate to something other than equities since they don't pay attention to the markets; the broad market index funds they're in have been ripping for the past 6 years ... . They're convinced it's going to go on forever even though it's been going nowhere since at least mid-March ... . 2.43% YTD is nothing to hoot about ... . http://quicktake.morningstar.com/ind...spx?Symbol=SPX...
That being said, they've bought into the market every other week at various levels over their work history ... . Some of those buy-in's were at ATL's, some were probably near ATH's ... . To a certain extent, I can see the reluctance to lock in gains here ... . It's going to be awfully hard to get back in at 2009 levels here ... . Lol. Me, I just couldn't take another massive dip after that 38.5% one in 2008, even if it rapidly came back thereafter (and by "rapidly," I mean, like 3 years ... ).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,949
  • Aug 7, 2015 6:19pm Aug 7, 2015 6:19pm
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/07/why-l...ommentary.html

it has been hard to be right on UST rates, I am prolly just laying off TLT/TBT for a while
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,950
  • Aug 7, 2015 6:20pm Aug 7, 2015 6:20pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} being able to stick around and learn some lessons is key.....I got started late.....
Me also ... . Took way too long to get around to self-educating myself ... . Now staring at retirement in 10 ten years or less (if all goes well), scrambling around to max out my 401(k), yada yada ... . Woulda helped if I'd started around 20; I don't think there was an internet then (I can remember typing college papers on a manual typewriter, for goodness sake), but I would at least have built up a bigger pile of $$ to play with post-retirement ... . It'll be big enough, it's just that bigger is better ... . (That's what she said ... ).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,951
  • Aug 7, 2015 6:22pm Aug 7, 2015 6:22pm
Quoting The Fool
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/07/why-l...ommentary.html it has been hard to be right on UST rates, I am prolly just laying off TLT/TBT for a while
Got one TLT IC left that's the aftermath of a call-side breached IC ... . It was treating me so nicely for the longest time ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,952
  • Aug 7, 2015 6:33pm Aug 7, 2015 6:33pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Yen is not far away, will start to take a small strangle position on leaps maybe 18 months out, IV is cheap at the moment
I've been gandering at FXY off and on ... . USD/JPY drove me a bit nuts when I traded spot forex. The BOJ policy seemed to lack consistency and follow-through, and there were various, counterintuitive voodoo economics things that they attempted or were going to attempt to order to get inflation to target (like, raising taxes, the effect of which would have been to actually decrease consumer spending since products would become more expensive).

But the general, overall play's gotta be dollar strength ... . I dunno, UUP? ... to go up? Lol. And, naturally, bearish FXE.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,953
  • Aug 7, 2015 6:39pm Aug 7, 2015 6:39pm
I think we will see some good opps to make money this Fall. I see the Sept4's came up - I like to do cheap spreads against the quarterlies - Sept4/Sept5 is 3 days. I am gonna keep loading some cheap long vol shots, maybe look at individual names that have the most to lose....

I still think the effect of a 1st hike will blow over pretty fast and then we will see US equities on the rise into the new year. But that might not happen if oil keeps sliding. Gonna be interesting....volatile, hopefully.

Ya'll have a good weekend.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,954
  • Aug 7, 2015 6:40pm Aug 7, 2015 6:40pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
... . I dunno, UUP? ... to go up? Lol. And, naturally, bearish FXE.
UUP sux, I'll tell ya why later.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,955
  • Edited 11:51pm Aug 7, 2015 9:19pm | Edited 11:51pm
Quoting The Fool
UUP sux, I'll tell ya why later.....
cuz it doesn't move, been in a <$2 range for the last 6 months, so iv is tiny, which is why you can buy Sept $1,50 otm calls for 2c today.

People trade it, though - I see a big ratioed calendar spread was put on this morning....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,956
  • Edited 9:55pm Aug 7, 2015 9:35pm | Edited 9:55pm
the calendar costs about $3k to put on and UUP needs to stay below $26 until Sept expiry.....would make millions if it moved north in the remaining 3 months til Dec expiry
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-08-07_cal.png Size: 59 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,957
  • Aug 7, 2015 9:58pm Aug 7, 2015 9:58pm
I have been trading forex for sometime. I am very interested in learning about Options. Is there any video tutorial any of you would recommend?
  • #9,958
  • Edited 12:24am Aug 8, 2015 12:09am | Edited 12:24am
late September vol spike baby (....also look at VXX Sep/Sept4 $23 calendar for < 10c) (look at Sept4/Oct VXX $24/$25 diag calls)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-08-07_UVXY1.png Size: 57 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,959
  • Aug 8, 2015 7:52pm Aug 8, 2015 7:52pm
Quoting The Fool
solar's a tough business.....SUNE m/l cut in half in the last few weeks
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit...aWQDBHNlYwNzcg--

Credit Suisse sticks to the guns on SUNE - $45 target. It been whacked from $33.50 to <$15 in 15 td's. FSLR notwithstanding, the solar stox will be sold while oil is sliding. So any speculation on their recovery needs to have some time to work. If SUNE dips towards $10, I might buy 300 shares....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,960
  • Edited 8:51pm Aug 8, 2015 8:07pm | Edited 8:51pm
when there's blood.....there was quite a lot of call buying in SUNE Friday.

When I see these large volume disparities between adjacent strikes, I know I need to look there for cheap vertical spread opps.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-08-08_sune1.png Size: 58 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-08-08_sune2.png Size: 27 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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