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  • #9,921
  • Aug 7, 2015 8:40am Aug 7, 2015 8:40am
Quoting The Fool
I can live with a binary deal: NFP beats & equities tank, or vice versa....
kind of a flatline NFP, but equities still under pressure, USD stronger - pushing down on oil, I'm glad I sold out of the Friday VXX bull call vert yesterday - now just sitting on SPY bear call verts....watching
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,922
  • Aug 7, 2015 8:44am Aug 7, 2015 8:44am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} kind of a flatline NFP, but equities still under pressure, USD stronger - pushing down on oil, I'm glad I sold out of the Friday VXX bull call vert yesterday - now just sitting on SPY bear call verts....watching
Breakdown on SPX 2076 level needed... that is 2070 on /ES

SPX 240m chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPX-240m.PNG Size: 193 KB


That is yesterday low + trend-line + level... I imagine lot of stops under...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,923
  • Aug 7, 2015 8:55am Aug 7, 2015 8:55am
coin flip for a break up or down, maybe just a flatline - if I had to bet I'd say the consensus for a Sept ffr hike has hardened a little more and equities will remain under pressure, will close flat to red for the day...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,924
  • Aug 7, 2015 9:02am Aug 7, 2015 9:02am
took a shot on a FSLR fade, paid too much - Aug $49/$48.5 bull puts for 11c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,925
  • Aug 7, 2015 9:43am Aug 7, 2015 9:43am
Quoting The Fool
coin flip for a break up or down, maybe just a flatline - if I had to bet I'd say the consensus for a Sept ffr hike has hardened a little more and equities will remain under pressure, will close flat to red for the day...
Yep, ZQ (FF futures) for Sept etc. continuing to roll over to the downside, gently.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #9,926
  • Aug 7, 2015 9:59am Aug 7, 2015 9:59am
This could be the push down -> critical levels for /ES around 2070 and for /NQ is 4500...
If breached, this could be a very, very red Friday...

So far, I scalped ~16 points on NQ CFDs, monitoring situation, if it goes down, maybe short pullback to 4500...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,927
  • Aug 7, 2015 11:01am Aug 7, 2015 11:01am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Sold it (2085 for expiry tomorrow) again for 7.50. Still holding teh same strike short call also for expiry tomorrow.
Urrgggg! Shoulda just kept holding the short call.
OK the short 2085 call expires worthless but I've had to roll the 2085P to 2075P. On reflection maybe I should stop rolling for evens and roll for the net loss instead. But it just seems there are so many bears around right now...hmm, this game isn't easy, fo' sure, fo' sure....
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #9,928
  • Aug 7, 2015 11:24am Aug 7, 2015 11:24am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} dow next 17280. hoho, shit month for equities
are we there yet?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #9,929
  • Aug 7, 2015 11:52am Aug 7, 2015 11:52am
Quoting ffleo
are we there yet?
Just a bump in the road....I'd guess August will be a red slide, prolly no giant red daily candles, but lotsa red.....my hope anyway....I'd like to see that ^VIX base put in for the late Sept/Oct skyhigh peak
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,930
  • Aug 7, 2015 11:56am Aug 7, 2015 11:56am
Quoting The Fool
I'm glad I sold out of the Friday VXX bull call vert yesterday -
netted about 15c Thurs, might've got a nickel more today......getting out b4 NFP was the right trade. I won't be in anything else new today. Would like to see SPY $205 next week, but I won't be surprised to see it bounce, either....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,931
  • Aug 7, 2015 12:03pm Aug 7, 2015 12:03pm
Today PA...

Attached Image
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,932
  • Aug 7, 2015 12:07pm Aug 7, 2015 12:07pm
Quoting The Fool
... Would like to see SPY $205 next week, but I won't be surprised to see it bounce, either....
There will be bounces, that is for sure... /ES is just a few points bellow 200sma. I would like to see some PA like on DJIA, fall down some more, and then retesting the 200sma from bellow, and smashing through that pesky 2040 level, and breaking down this mofo range.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,933
  • Aug 7, 2015 12:16pm Aug 7, 2015 12:16pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Love the nobbers on TradingView and the various views on where SPY will go tomorrow ... . Crazy talk, most of it ... . 5 min. charts with crazy ass harmonics crap painted all over it ... . Whatever happened to simple support and resistance/price action?


I often wonder the same. I have all sort of advanced shit, BUT -> never ever forgetting what is hierarchy in TA... S/R levels comes first, then trend lines, and ONLY then it comes to whatever else you have, like Market Profile, advanced indicators and so on. If the price is on the line, all that other stuff can only confirm your decision.

EUR/USD 60m chart, 2 opps WAS there
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR-2examples.PNG Size: 178 KB


Lines, lines, lines,..... I lost time and money for some school, and there was that mantra like "Yo guys, if the shit is above daily pivot it is bullish, yeah, just wait for confirmation, yada yada yada..." By the time every shit is aligned, you got the RETAIL PRICES. Completely different is trading in the trend, and trading in a range.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,934
  • Aug 7, 2015 2:14pm Aug 7, 2015 2:14pm
what up, Cecil - are you still in TWTR puts?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,935
  • Aug 7, 2015 2:16pm Aug 7, 2015 2:16pm
Quoting The Fool
what up, Cecil - are you still in TWTR puts?
hard to pick a downside target if it's gonna drop thru the alltime floor....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,936
  • Aug 7, 2015 3:27pm Aug 7, 2015 3:27pm
Big Shawty...meet Supah Bear
http://www.thestreet.com/story/13248...o&cm_ven=YAHOO

"Thus far in 2015, I've envisioned a sawtooth pattern lower in the belief that a major market top is forming. Tactically, I've adopted a "short the rips and cover the dips" strategy that's paid off so far.

But at some point -- probably in the relatively near future -- it will be more appropriate to "short the rips and stay short." After all, the "Big Short" might be soon at hand."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,937
  • Aug 7, 2015 4:32pm Aug 7, 2015 4:32pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Breakdown on SPX 2076 level needed... that is 2070 on /ES SPX 240m chart {image} That is yesterday low + trend-line + level... I imagine lot of stops under...
See, that's a fairly simple chart there ... . Nothing too fancy, some horizontal lines for obvious support resistance and one or two MA's does the trick ... .

* * *

Squeezed .89 out of today -- two SPY short call verts went and one in QQQ. They were on the brink of going on Thursday; just needed an extra push. Unfortunately, these last two days' price action leaves me with about as much on as I had shortly before the last round of Greek drama. I'll have some work to do next week loading up ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,938
  • Aug 7, 2015 4:45pm Aug 7, 2015 4:45pm
Quoting The Fool
Big Shawty...meet Supah Bear http://www.thestreet.com/story/13248...o&cm_ven=YAHOO "Thus far in 2015, I've envisioned a sawtooth pattern lower in the belief that a major market top is forming. Tactically, I've adopted a "short the rips and cover the dips" strategy that's paid off so far. But at some point -- probably in the relatively near future -- it will be more appropriate to "short the rips and stay short." After all, the "Big Short" might be soon at hand."
One of the things I'll do over the weekend is look at downside targets in the indices ... . I haven't given much thought to these, frankly (at least since the last Greek drama episode, when it seemed like we were close to breaking 203). The other thing I'll look at is whether it'll be worthwhile to trade a couple of SPDR's like XLF, XRT, the biotech SPDR XBI on top of the index ETF's. All of these have rippage to the upside that mimics the trajectory of the broader market (heck, they're probably responsible for it) and are likely to cave in some fashion going forward if that is what the broader market does.

The juiciest of these is XBI with the yearly high around 273; unfortunately, I missed the massive dip it took over the last several days ... . It looks like the liquidity sucks on it, unfortunately, but I'll have to look at it when NY is open ... . XRT -- missed that dip, too ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,939
  • Aug 7, 2015 5:12pm Aug 7, 2015 5:12pm
Personally, I wouldn't be at all surprised by dip buying in this area ... . Jim Cramer and his fans are probably still out there stumping for "value" trades, diamonds in the rough, and similar stuff ... .

Well, I take it back ... . He's actually advising to raise the level of cash in your portfolio, that the market is a "falling knife," that this decline has the feel of 2007-2009 (wouldn't necessarily go that far) ... . http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cramer...21138049.html# So what's his show going to be about for the next two-three months ... maybe more? Inverse index ETF's?

Talked to a guy at work today about "shorting the market". He didn't know what that was ... . Virtually every person at work I've talked to is going to "ride it out" in their 401(k) without touching a thing and will continue to buy at these highs and then effectively chase price lower every payday when a portion of their check is taken out for the 401(k) contribution that is ordinarily placed in a broad-based, passively managed Blackrock index fund ... . Some of these nobbers are quite close to retirement in the scheme of things; if you've got $200,000 in your 401(k), you're fine with a 10%/$20,000 correction? What about a 20%/$40,000 correction? (Dumb-founded looks.) Run for the exits? Nahhhhh ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,940
  • Aug 7, 2015 5:26pm Aug 7, 2015 5:26pm
Quoting The Fool
Big Shawty...meet Supah Bear http://www.thestreet.com/story/13248...o&cm_ven=YAHOO "Thus far in 2015, I've envisioned a sawtooth pattern lower in the belief that a major market top is forming. Tactically, I've adopted a "short the rips and cover the dips" strategy that's paid off so far. But at some point -- probably in the relatively near future -- it will be more appropriate to "short the rips and stay short." After all, the "Big Short" might be soon at hand."
However, one never knows ... . Janet may find an excuse for can-kicking to December somewhere (I frankly do not want to see her literally pull something out of her butt). But the guy who's been doing the drum roll for a Fed rate hike liftoff, well, his arms are getting pretty darn tired .... . I mean, really? We're talking about going from zero to like a quarter inch from zero ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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