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  • #9,841
  • Aug 5, 2015 7:05am Aug 5, 2015 7:05am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Closed teh put for 3.00.



Obviously there is no point of shorting this market
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,842
  • Aug 5, 2015 7:19am Aug 5, 2015 7:19am
thank you, SDog.....trying to fill another Sept5 SPY bear call vert, $216/$219 for 72c....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,843
  • Aug 5, 2015 7:45am Aug 5, 2015 7:45am
Quoting The Fool
thank you, SDog.....trying to fill another Sept5 SPY bear call vert, $216/$219 for 72c....
filled, also did a Friday VXX $16/$16.5 bull calls for 7c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,844
  • Aug 5, 2015 7:53am Aug 5, 2015 7:53am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} filled, also did a Friday VXX $16/$16.5 bull calls for 7c
also trying Oct VXX bfly calls, $21/$25/$29...for 14c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,845
  • Aug 5, 2015 8:05am Aug 5, 2015 8:05am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Obviously there is no point of shorting this market
Thanks ... you're aware it was a short put, right? :0)
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #9,846
  • Aug 5, 2015 8:19am Aug 5, 2015 8:19am
Quoting The Fool
also trying Oct VXX bfly calls, $21/$25/$29...for 14c
I have throwed the kitchen sink at Oct VXX bull call spreads - no fills - I have not tried chasing the price, tho.....it'll be there tomorrow
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,847
  • Aug 5, 2015 8:32am Aug 5, 2015 8:32am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Thanks ... you're aware it was a short put, right? :0)
I am, that's why I said that. You hedged your short call, made some $ on short put.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,848
  • Aug 5, 2015 8:49am Aug 5, 2015 8:49am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} filled, also did a Friday VXX $16/$16.5 bull calls for 7c
I have noticed that ADP NFP often doesn't match with actual NFP. But, if the numbers on Friday are going to be weak like today... then all short plays and long vol plays are going to be crushed... Since market in this phase obviously care JUST about rate hike.

I had b/e yesterday on my spreads, which were going from decent minus to b/e, hardly ever positive. Didn't pull the trigger, which is something that I usually do, if there is no fast results. Today that unrealized loss is very unpleasant.
There is plenty of time until Sep 18th... I didn't hedge it today buy going long futures as soon as data was released, I have just looked at it like frozen.

Looking at today daily candle -> so far, it has taken prior 3 red candles. So, why not continue up tomorrow?
And, AAPL went from -2% to +2%...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,849
  • Aug 5, 2015 9:57am Aug 5, 2015 9:57am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} I am, that's why I said that. You hedged your short call, made some $ on short put.
Cool Stray, thanks :0)
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #9,850
  • Aug 5, 2015 10:06am Aug 5, 2015 10:06am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} I have noticed that ADP NFP often doesn't match with actual NFP. But, if the numbers on Friday are going to be weak like today... then all short plays and long vol plays are going to be crushed... Since market in this phase obviously care JUST about rate hike. I had b/e yesterday on my spreads, which were going from decent minus to b/e, hardly ever positive. Didn't pull the trigger, which is something that I usually do, if there is no fast results. Today that unrealized loss is very unpleasant. There is plenty of time until Sep 18th... I...
Saw a comment this week from somebody somewhere that said based on PMIs he expects NFP around 118K. Take it with a pinch of salt...just some anonymous geezer at the end of the day...but makes you think...what if .. what if..

I don't think you can say how the market feels about teh rate hike because supposedly on the weak ADP futures went up but then the strong PMI (or whatever) came out and they went up even more.
Frankly the market appears to still be guessing on the first hike.
I have a theory that the dollar will stay strong until a) unequivocal weakness in top tier indicators is present or b) the first rate hike looks to be in the bag (sell the news etc.)

I still think the indexes are weak. They say when teh generals start to fall the rest of the index is not long thereafter. But I'm also aware there are (probably) massive forces at work that can push them higher, for months if need be.
At the end of the day, I think QE pushed them up to artificial heights and we have yet to see the Newtonian "opposite reaction" from all that stimulus. It will come; but we just don't know when.
Btw regarding the NYSE Comp: last time round (2006-...) the NYSE led to teh upside and it was the SPX that was the laggard. This time the other way round.
Possibly the CBs are buying SPYs LOL. Well we know the BoJ is buying ETFs, though I'm not sure if they are buying internationally.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #9,851
  • Aug 5, 2015 10:14am Aug 5, 2015 10:14am
Quoting StrayDog
I have noticed that ADP NFP often doesn't match with actual NFP. But, if the numbers on Friday are going to be weak like today... then all short plays and long vol plays are going to be crushed... Since market in this phase obviously care JUST about rate hike....
I think we'd need a BIG miss on the NFP to derail the Sept ffr hike expectations that are working up a head of steam.

Anyway, I think I remember seeing somebody's study that showed ADP diverged strongly from NFP about 25% of the time....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,852
  • Aug 5, 2015 10:19am Aug 5, 2015 10:19am
Bought a couple of AAPL Dec 105Ps for 3.66.
So if anybody here wants to make money, a sure bet is to sell them.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #9,853
  • Aug 5, 2015 10:25am Aug 5, 2015 10:25am
Quoting Boy Wonder
Bought a couple of AAPL Dec 105Ps for 3.66. So if anybody here wants to make money, a sure bet is to sell them.
I'd hate to bet against AAPl, honestly - it has been m/l bulletproof these last years....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,854
  • Aug 5, 2015 10:33am Aug 5, 2015 10:33am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I'd hate to bet against AAPl, honestly - it has been m/l bulletproof these last years....
Agree with that.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #9,855
  • Aug 5, 2015 10:44am Aug 5, 2015 10:44am
50dma has rolled over on $SPX - it's now sloping down. At the current rate it looks like it's going to crossover teh 200 in a couple of months or so. Note the big tail as of writing on today's candle.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #9,856
  • Aug 5, 2015 10:57am Aug 5, 2015 10:57am
Whereas on the NYSE Comp the 50dma is homing in on the 200dma like a heat-seeking missile. INCOMING!!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 31 KB
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #9,857
  • Aug 5, 2015 1:21pm Aug 5, 2015 1:21pm
was trading halted on SPY or /ES today? Look at a chart for the day with the near flatline after NY lunch....?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,858
  • Aug 5, 2015 2:13pm Aug 5, 2015 2:13pm
Quoting The Fool
also trying Oct VXX bfly calls, $21/$25/$29...for 14c
got a fill on this, gonna be epic....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,859
  • Aug 5, 2015 3:07pm Aug 5, 2015 3:07pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} No, say it ain't so ... . Here's what I decided to go with in UNG: Sep 11 UNG 13.5/13.5 short straddle POP 56% Max Prof/Loss 1.26 cr/Unlimited BE's at 12.24/14.76 Only time I've short straddled is within an IC for a quick and dirty earnings play where there wasn't enough juice otherwise ... . Here, just needs to hold that range ... .
Didn't get filled on that UNG short strad for 1.26; will try again tomorrow for 1.23.

Tired of waiting on FXE; volatility is a little up today, so I'm going to pull the trigger on two "rungs" of my laddered short call verts, Sept 111/114 (.28 cr) and Dec 112/115 (.51 cr). With the Sept expiry, I put the short call strike right at the 1 SD; with the Dec, I fashioned it so that BE was 112.5 or so, a level I don't imagine we'll see soon (unless I'm totally crazy). I'll fill in the October and November rungs when those expiries become available ... .

* * *

With my index trades, it seems like I virtually always regret not setting all of those up as delta neutral IC's from the git-go; many of the put sides of the IC's I did set up as delta neutral at the outset (with short put vert wings skewed bearish to get to neutral) are in fine shape, offsetting some of the short term bullishness ... . Additionally, having entered trades in SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM at various times was of benefit too ... . IWM and DIA look a little more ready to cave than SPY and QQQ ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,860
  • Aug 5, 2015 3:11pm Aug 5, 2015 3:11pm
Quoting The Fool
was trading halted on SPY or /ES today? Look at a chart for the day with the near flatline after NY lunch....?
Funny you mention that ... . When I was at work, I checked the indices on a phone app I've got and thought the app was f'd up ... . Price didn't move for quite a bit of time ... . I just assumed it was the app ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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