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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #3,101
  • Aug 5, 2015 11:43am Aug 5, 2015 11:43am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Yep, looks spot on to me. Daily trend is up (supply up top potentially consumed). Looking for pull-backs or bullish engulfs to get onboard. In terms of NZD or AUD, it's all about which one happens to be the biggest turd at the moment.

Something is printing in 4hr.....
  • #3,102
  • Aug 5, 2015 11:54am Aug 5, 2015 11:54am
Still little more to go for TP
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  • #3,103
  • Aug 5, 2015 12:06pm Aug 5, 2015 12:06pm
Quoting marc2014
{quote} Something is printing in 4hr.....
Sure is, although my only concern is the short space to the upper area after such a strong move up.

Would have liked to see a bull engulf print slightly lower for R/R purposes. Let's see.
  • #3,104
  • Aug 5, 2015 12:09pm Aug 5, 2015 12:09pm
AUDCAD- 4 hr Chart, 1 HR seems more interesting.
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  • #3,105
  • Aug 5, 2015 12:14pm Aug 5, 2015 12:14pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Sure is, although my only concern is the short space to the upper area after such a strong move up. Would have liked to see a bull engulf print slightly lower for R/R purposes. Let's see.
If we go through old school thought we have around 100+ pips left in board (Weekly) to test the resistance or supply level, but in daily we see some supply around nothing much left. I Would surely say its a tight call but I would prefer to buy the dips (1.120504).... but would not long from current price.
  • #3,106
  • Aug 5, 2015 12:15pm Aug 5, 2015 12:15pm
Decided to take a piece off the table on this grinder...
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  • #3,107
  • Aug 5, 2015 12:17pm Aug 5, 2015 12:17pm
Quoting marc2014
AUDCAD- 4 hr Chart, 1 HR seems more interesting. {image}
This is a textbook S/R flip level but it's a sidelines for me at the moment on this pair until I get a clear trigger.
  • #3,108
  • Aug 5, 2015 12:29pm Aug 5, 2015 12:29pm
HI C-12,

Can I have some input from you on AUDCHF, daily zone is quite high from current price. we can see some nice PA on 4hr on supply level.
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  • #3,109
  • Aug 5, 2015 12:31pm Aug 5, 2015 12:31pm
Quoting C-12
Decided to take a piece off the table on this grinder... {image}
  • #3,110
  • Edited 12:49pm Aug 5, 2015 12:36pm | Edited 12:49pm
Quoting marc2014
HI C-12, Can I have some input from you on AUDCHF, daily zone is quite high from current price. we can see some nice PA on 4hr on supply level. {image}
I like the PA on this H4 chart. Not really certain longer term outlook on the Daily / Weekly but this is defo the kind of action we're looking for.

The question is, to put stop above zone or above PA....
  • #3,111
  • Aug 6, 2015 10:27am Aug 6, 2015 10:27am
USDCHF
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  • #3,112
  • Aug 6, 2015 11:29am Aug 6, 2015 11:29am
Nice to get home from work to some pips... All thanks to my very own currency.
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  • #3,113
  • Aug 6, 2015 11:31am Aug 6, 2015 11:31am
GBPJPY.
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  • #3,114
  • Aug 6, 2015 11:34am Aug 6, 2015 11:34am
GN was the mover of the day in terms of pippage.
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  • #3,115
  • Aug 6, 2015 11:57am Aug 6, 2015 11:57am
Some losers .... for those who like to see that kind of stuff.
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  • #3,116
  • Aug 6, 2015 12:45pm Aug 6, 2015 12:45pm
C-10 Some great trading there. Yes the losers but thats trading.

I notice you scale in your entries as price goes against you .....but.....you wisely will take your loss at your predefined stop loss. Some people on forums rail against this averging down but as long as you define your percentage risk beforehand (say1.5% for example) and you workout your correct position size for the 3 positions at 0.5% its doesn't matter if the loss comes in one all in trade risking 1.5% or the 3 x 0.5% trades.

The trade off is that times you will get a really good RR on the last scale in close to the stop loss but times price will lift one of your pending orders and leave the level without the other two orders. So you are at full size when you lose but maybe 1/3 size on some of your winners. Unless you add to your winning trades as they proceed in your favour. Is this something like the gist of what you are doing from a MM point of view?

Thanks again for your wisdom
  • #3,117
  • Aug 6, 2015 1:01pm Aug 6, 2015 1:01pm
Quoting silverpuma
C-10 Some great trading there. Yes the losers but thats trading. I notice you scale in your entries as price goes against you .....but.....you wisely will take your loss at your predefined stop loss.
Yeah definitely. The trades where it appears I'm averaging is is usually a H4 / Daily zone as those GBPNZD entries above.

Sometimes you just can't be sure when price will turn so I'll add more if there's a tighter entry (as long as overall risk is in check). These tighter entries can offer crazy R/R and less chance of being hit for break even on a retrace.

But yes, it's very important to have the stop in place (a bit behind the zone) and stick to it. I've been guilty many times before of adding to losers / moving stops in the hope price turns. That's an account blowing strategy in the end.
  • #3,118
  • Aug 6, 2015 1:14pm Aug 6, 2015 1:14pm
Another example is how you can manage risk on a swing account.

If you've got a nice collection of open trades in profit (and at BE) You can afford to take a little extra bit of risk on a trade. If it takes you out then you can pull the plug on a profit entry.

If your account is flat / negative then you wouldn't want to take any additional risk.
  • #3,119
  • Aug 6, 2015 1:22pm Aug 6, 2015 1:22pm
Here's one I been holding this for a while. Just for fun this one.
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  • #3,120
  • Aug 6, 2015 4:19pm Aug 6, 2015 4:19pm
yipppeeee thats a bucket load of pips on the weekly I see also on some charts you add to trades that are going your way (I like that a lot and "try" to do it as well). Do you have a rule for that? For example do you have to be so many "R" in profit before you add any additional risk and then move you stop so this added risk cannot comeback and hurt you.

I like you idea of playing with additional risk when you have some R stored up as a buffer so you still end up positive. Nice!
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