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  • #9,821
  • Aug 4, 2015 12:44pm Aug 4, 2015 12:44pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Looking at UNG bull call verts, Jan expiry that would accommodate a spike to 14+ ... . A 14/15 Jan expiry would go for .33 db; BE at 14.33 ... .
That spread could get cheaper if we could get a dip back below 13 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,822
  • Aug 4, 2015 12:47pm Aug 4, 2015 12:47pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Looking at UNG bull call verts, Jan expiry that would accommodate a spike to 14+ ... . A 14/15 Jan expiry would go for .33 db; BE at 14.33 ... .
You can do Jan $17/$18 for 10c, more my speed
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,823
  • Aug 4, 2015 12:49pm Aug 4, 2015 12:49pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
That spread could get cheaper if we could get a dip back below 13 ... .
sheesh, long vol, now long nat gas - I really must be losing it....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,824
  • Aug 4, 2015 4:04pm Aug 4, 2015 4:04pm
nice to see SPY bleed after hours for a change, red August needs the NFP to shake the Street, things should start to flatline until Friday now, I'd guess
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,825
  • Aug 4, 2015 5:23pm Aug 4, 2015 5:23pm
Quoting The Fool
nice to see SPY bleed after hours for a change, red August needs the NFP to shake the Street, things should start to flatline until Friday now, I'd guess
Could see the back side of a couple of short call index verts for 50% max profit in the next day or so if we get a little more bear action (only need a touch in DIA ... ).

Remarkably, the SVXY short call verts I set up toward the top of its arc are working out a little better than the UVXY short put verts; UVXY just keeps on trying to find a new bottom at the 25 strike ... . Frankly, I would like to see the back side of both of those ... . A little too wild for my tastes if I use short verts; I think TF has the better approach to VIX products, opting for cheap debit setups ... . If they work out, fantastico; if they don't, you haven't lost much ... .

Still not seeing what I want in FXE, which is volatility (IVR is currently sub 10) ... . Moreover, the U/L sucks with expiries; right now you've got Sep monthly and then it jumps out by quarters (i.e., Sep, Dec. Jan, March, etc.). I'm looking for a bit of volatility plus the ability to set up laddered short call verts in some sensible fashion with the notion that we won't be seeing 110 again for quite some time, let alone 112 ... . I researched FXE alternatives, one of which is EUO (which looks like an inverse EUR/USD ETF); unfortunately, it suffers from the same problem as FXE -- after September, irregular monthlies (no weeklies) ... .

The volatility will appear in FXE eventually; just hope I don't miss the slide in the mean time ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,826
  • Aug 4, 2015 5:57pm Aug 4, 2015 5:57pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Could see the back side of a couple of short call index verts for 50% max profit in the next day or so if we get a little more bear action (only need a touch in DIA ... ). Remarkably, the SVXY short call verts I set up toward the top of its arc are working out a little better than the UVXY short put verts; UVXY just keeps on trying to find a new bottom at the 25 strike ... . Frankly, I would like to see the back side of both of those ... . A little too wild for my tastes if I use short verts; I think TF has the better approach...
Probs shoulda thought about this back in June when we were at 112, but I probably had some ridiculous IC on in FXE at the time ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,827
  • Aug 4, 2015 6:07pm Aug 4, 2015 6:07pm
Anyone work any Greek stuff? Got distracted myself cleaning up a few messes ... .

Looked at some crazy lottery trade stuff in NBG and GREK, big time frames out ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,828
  • Aug 4, 2015 6:30pm Aug 4, 2015 6:30pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} taken APPLE trade - long strangle DEC EXP $130 CALL at $3.85 and long DEC EXP $115 PUT at $2.80, may sell shorter term options to reduce costs. Been waiting on APPLE to make some kind of directional move plus within in the trade I get another earnings report OCTOBER AAPL Dec 2015 130.000 call (AAPL151218C00130000) -OPR 3.85 0.20(4.94%) 14:32 AAPL Dec 2015 110.000 put (AAPL151218P00110000) -OPR 2.80 0.12(4.11%) 14:11
the put side on the APPLE trade closed $8.45 and the call side at $2.36 will maintain this position going forward

AAPL Dec 2015 115.000 put (AAPL151218P00115000)
-OPR
8.45 2.10(33.07%) 4 Aug 23:59
  • #9,829
  • Aug 4, 2015 6:31pm Aug 4, 2015 6:31pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Anyone work any Greek stuff? Got distracted myself cleaning up a few messes ... . Looked at some crazy lottery trade stuff in NBG and GREK, big time frames out ... .
I had thought I might just buy the NBG shares. It's liable to be the last bank standing in Greece. But then, Greece could still be headed out of the EMU, and the NBofG would be nationalized, and those adr's would go to squat. Idk, if I want to make a stoopid lotto trade I can just go long vol....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,830
  • Aug 4, 2015 6:33pm Aug 4, 2015 6:33pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} the put side on the APPLE trade closed $8.45 and the call side at $2.36 will maintain this position going forward AAPL Dec 2015 115.000 put (AAPL151218P00115000) -OPR 8.45 2.10(33.07%) 4 Aug 23:59
hey, nice one, I know you'd been eyeing AAPL for a long time....a 3-bagger as it stands m/l - could you take any off to b/e?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,831
  • Aug 4, 2015 6:36pm Aug 4, 2015 6:36pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} hey, nice one, I know you'd been eyeing AAPL for a long time....a 3-bagger as it stands m/l - could you take any off to b/e?
no mate, I'm looking for a home run on this hence the time value taken
  • #9,832
  • Aug 4, 2015 6:41pm Aug 4, 2015 6:41pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} that's the one I have too PCLN
earnings for PCLN tomorrow, I'm thinking a outlier move on it. wish I was in it
  • #9,833
  • Aug 4, 2015 6:45pm Aug 4, 2015 6:45pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
no mate, I'm looking for a home run on this hence the time value taken
good luck, brother
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,834
  • Aug 4, 2015 9:27pm Aug 4, 2015 9:27pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Still not seeing what I want in FXE, which is volatility (IVR is currently sub 10) ... . Moreover, the U/L sucks with expiries; right now you've got Sep monthly and then it jumps out by quarters (i.e., Sep, Dec. Jan, March, etc.). I'm looking for a bit of volatility plus the ability to set up laddered short call verts
EUO sux wit 20c spread. I also wait for later expiries on FXE. Meanwhile if you've got the margin (& patience) there are diagonals @ Dec/Jan. Shit a lot could happen in 5 months....rate hikes by the Fed & BOE, another Grexit, freakin Jackson Hole, who knows?

the 10-lot DD shown nets $400 at least, maxP @ $700, a 0.2-lot fiber short would neutralize the put side diagonal slide....a 1,200 pip safe range anyway.....lotta time to tie up that much margin, though
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-08-04_fxedd.png Size: 65 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,835
  • Aug 4, 2015 9:57pm Aug 4, 2015 9:57pm
Quoting The Fool
Idk, if I want to make a stoopid lotto trade I can just go long vol....
/ES overnight suggesting a bounce Wed --- would sink VXX to new all time low
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,836
  • Aug 4, 2015 10:33pm Aug 4, 2015 10:33pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} /ES overnight suggesting a bounce Wed --- would sink VXX to new all time low
No, say it ain't so ... .

Here's what I decided to go with in UNG:

Sep 11 UNG 13.5/13.5 short straddle
POP 56%
Max Prof/Loss 1.26 cr/Unlimited
BE's at 12.24/14.76

Only time I've short straddled is within an IC for a quick and dirty earnings play where there wasn't enough juice otherwise ... . Here, just needs to hold that range ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,837
  • Aug 4, 2015 10:45pm Aug 4, 2015 10:45pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} EUO sux wit 20c spread. I also wait for later expiries on FXE. Meanwhile if you've got the margin (& patience) there are diagonals @ Dec/Jan. Shit a lot could happen in 5 months....rate hikes by the Fed & BOE, another Grexit, freakin Jackson Hole, who knows? the 10-lot DD shown nets $400 at least, maxP @ $700, a 0.2-lot fiber short would neutralize the put side diagonal slide....a 1,200 pip safe range anyway.....lotta time to tie up that much margin, though {image}
I researched a bunch of currency ETF's this aft ... . They seem to uniformly suck ... . Poor liquidity, expiries, etc. FXE is the best of the lot, it seems, but that ain't sayin' much ... . Gonna wait a bit on it; enough on the plate right now ... . But I do want to get on that bus before it leaves the station; I'm thinking before the next FOMC ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,838
  • Edited 12:31am Aug 5, 2015 12:02am | Edited 12:31am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
But I do want to get on that bus before it leaves the station; I'm thinking before the next FOMC ... .
southbound bus done left the station, no Aug FOMC, next stop Sept 17, day of destiny....fiber will be testing $1.05 low in Aug, prolly by next week....have mercy...

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,839
  • Aug 5, 2015 1:01am Aug 5, 2015 1:01am
/ZB red overnight, could make 3 days running - red candles been hard to come by - but if you look at the daily chart you see how the mofo likes reversals - maybe it will grind down and test $115 - could take 20 days or double that....below a Sep/Oct $112/$110 puts diag for 11c...pays $0.80 at maxP, safe to $110....maybe catch a runner....but I am gunshy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-08-tlt.png Size: 34 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,840
  • Aug 5, 2015 7:26am Aug 5, 2015 7:26am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Sold a 2085 weekly put for 9 against my short call (turns out it's a 2085 call, not 2080).
Closed teh put for 3.00.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
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