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Jay's High Probability Setups

  • #61
  • Jul 15, 2015 1:43pm Jul 15, 2015 1:43pm
I guess Fxjay is gone.
  • #62
  • Jul 15, 2015 2:31pm Jul 15, 2015 2:31pm
Quoting metta87
I guess Fxjay is gone.
maybe, maybe not. Will surely miss his insights.
No Risk No Reward
  • #63
  • Aug 4, 2015 4:22am Aug 4, 2015 4:22am
Hey guys, it's been quite a long time.

I've been real busy with a new project that's taking a whole lot of my time and then I recently took a long deserved relaxing vacation away from all kind of work & trading.
Needless to say, I was away from both my ForexFactory & Facebook profile. I promise to reply to all the pending messages in due time.

I'm not going to be very active in the time being, but I'll be around from time to time, and hopefully towards November I'll be back to spend more time around here.
  • #64
  • Aug 4, 2015 4:27am Aug 4, 2015 4:27am
Quoting FX-Jay
You may have realized that using the time factor has a very important role in my analysis I believe that in order to be successful you need to combine both the price & time into your decision. PA by itself isn't enough. I will take the time factor to the extreme & share a high probability trade that is purely based on time rather than price. I haven't seen anyone attempt this before... If you have, please do share the link. The high probability trade is AUDUSD short (sorry for the AU bulls out there) 1st short entry: Wednesday, US Opening (15/04)...
A quick update concerning the above trade:

The AUDUSD short trade did eventually reach its target, but it have triggered all the stops I had for it before. I have to admit that I didn't expect it to go that high (and for that long) before falling to target.

An important thing that every trader should keep in mind is ti not get married to a trade. When your stops are hit, just move on, there are 100 other opportunities waiting for you out there on different pairs, and different TFs.

So basically I declare this setup as a fail
  • #65
  • Aug 4, 2015 4:36am Aug 4, 2015 4:36am
It's been a while, so I hope my skills didn't get rusty

On all cases, I will be bold enough to give the following high probability setups:

1- EURUSD: 1.0810 before 1.1300 by Monday (in other words TP = 1.0810 ; SL = 1.1130)

2- EURCAD: 1.4490 before 1.4175 by Monday


For those asking about Gold, I wouldn't recommend buying just yet! Probabilities favor a new push down.
Personally I wouldn't want to short Gold so I'm staying on the sideline until a high 'long' probability setup shows up, but at the moment there isn't any.

Cheers,
Jay
  • #66
  • Aug 4, 2015 5:45am Aug 4, 2015 5:45am
Welcome back Jay! I wish you good luck with your projects.

regards
fm
No Risk No Reward
  • #67
  • Aug 4, 2015 6:17am Aug 4, 2015 6:17am
Quoting fmfx1
Welcome back Jay! I wish you good luck with your projects. regards fm
Thanks mate, hope I'll be more active here sooner rather than later

Best,
Jay
  • #68
  • Aug 4, 2015 6:20am Aug 4, 2015 6:20am
Here's an additional high probability setup worth watching:

EURGBP to break 0.6940 without touching 0.7160 before the end of this week
  • #69
  • Aug 4, 2015 6:25am Aug 4, 2015 6:25am
Quoting FX-Jay
Here's an additional high probability setup worth watching: EURGBP to break 0.6940 without touching 0.7160 before the end of this week

Welcome back Jay... Hope you are doing good...
  • #70
  • Aug 10, 2015 3:13am Aug 10, 2015 3:13am
Quoting FX-Jay
1- EURUSD: 1.0810 before 1.1300 by Monday (in other words TP = 1.0810 ; SL = 1.1130)
2- EURCAD: 1.4490 before 1.4175 by Monday
Quoting FX-Jay
Here's an additional high probability setup worth watching: EURGBP to break 0.6940 without touching 0.7160 before the end of this week
So far we haven't reached the Targets (nor the SL) of any of the above 3 trades.
By the end of today's trading day, I will update with the new/updated points and expected duration.
The best part is that the targets will remain the same, but the SLs will get tighter.

Best,
Jay
  • #71
  • Aug 10, 2015 6:05am Aug 10, 2015 6:05am
The probability of EURCAD not making a new high above 1.4457 during this week is less than 1%
Price is now at 1.4371

The current setup that I see on EURCAD failed only once in the last 10 years.
Probability of it failing again is <1%
  • #72
  • Aug 11, 2015 4:58am Aug 11, 2015 4:58am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} {quote} So far we haven't reached the Targets (nor the SL) of any of the above 3 trades. By the end of today's trading day, I will update with the new/updated points and expected duration. The best part is that the targets will remain the same, but the SLs will get tighter. Best, Jay
Here are the updates:

1- EUR/GBP: Probabilities still favor 0.6940 before 0.7160. It is worth mentioning that it managed to reach 0.6950 (10 pips away from target) before bouncing back up. I believe that this bounce up is a new opportunity to short. I expect the target to be reached before the 19th of August

2- EUR/USD: I still see the direction as being down. The SL moved from 1.1130 to 1.1115. Main Target remains a low below 1.0810, and secondary target is 1.0850. I also expect targets to be reached by the 19th of August.

3- EUR/CAD: Still betting big on this pair making a high above 1.4457 before the end of this week.
  • #73
  • Aug 11, 2015 5:23am Aug 11, 2015 5:23am
The GBP/JPY rally up isn't over, 195.85 isn't the near-term top, expect it to be taken out before the end of August
  • #74
  • Aug 11, 2015 9:51am Aug 11, 2015 9:51am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} - EUR/CAD: Still betting big on this pair making a high above 1.4457 before the end of this week.
Hey Jay! it was spot on, target acquired

Regards
fm
No Risk No Reward
  • #75
  • Aug 11, 2015 6:08pm Aug 11, 2015 6:08pm
Quoting FX-Jay
The probability of EURCAD not making a new high above 1.4457 during this week is less than 1% Price is now at 1.4371 The current setup that I see on EURCAD failed only once in the last 10 years. Probability of it failing again is <1%
Never bet against extremely high probability trades
As I said before, there was only a 1% chance of not making a new high this week.
Target reached .. din't even have to wait till the enc of the week
  • #76
  • Aug 11, 2015 6:19pm Aug 11, 2015 6:19pm
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} 1- EUR/GBP: Probabilities still favor 0.6940 before 0.7160. It is worth mentioning that it managed to reach 0.6950 (10 pips away from target) before bouncing back up. I believe that this bounce up is a new opportunity to short. I expect the target to be reached before the 19th of August
SL moved from 0.7160 to 0.7145

A small advice: Always trust your system, and keep emotions away from trading.
Never change your decisions without having a strong non-emotional support for that change.

Despite the market moving higher, I am making my stops tighter! Why? Because that's what my system is showing me, and the probabilities I calculate will remain the same after tightening the SL, so why not do it?

A big amateur mistake would be removing the SL or moving it away from market when price goes against you.

Educate yourself > trust your decisions > keep emotions away > use probabilities to your favor > relax > make money
  • #77
  • Aug 11, 2015 6:38pm Aug 11, 2015 6:38pm
2 high probability trades with big pip potentials are shaping up
One on EURAUD and the second on AUDNZD

Once the set-ups are ready in a way that probabilities will exceed 90%, I will post them here
  • #78
  • Aug 11, 2015 7:10pm Aug 11, 2015 7:10pm
Quoting FX-Jay
2 high probability trades with big pip potentials are shaping up One on EURAUD and the second on AUDNZD Once the set-ups are ready in a way that probabilities will exceed 90%, I will post them here
For the CAD traders, there are also two trades that are almost ready for entry on USDCAD & GBPCAD, picture will be clear by the end of Wednesday's trading day
  • #79
  • Aug 13, 2015 2:24pm Aug 13, 2015 2:24pm
hi jay, thanx for all of your shares. how you see Gbp/Aud with 2.1500 as target and 2.0900 as sl?? high barrier between prices but it seems a good trend. and very important what you say: follow your strategy ALWAYS if we dont do this we are lost in a sea of chaos.

Peace and pips.
  • #80
  • Aug 13, 2015 4:35pm Aug 13, 2015 4:35pm
EURUSD and EURGBP hit stops after missing target last week, enough to secure profit, I was taken out at breakeven. Good call Jay!

Regards
Fm
No Risk No Reward
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