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Let's Trade Options

  • #9,781
  • Aug 3, 2015 1:37am Aug 3, 2015 1:37am
ASE down 23%....let's see how NBG & GREK fare at the open
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,782
  • Aug 3, 2015 6:18am Aug 3, 2015 6:18am
Quoting The Fool
ASE down 23%....let's see how NBG & GREK fare at the open
ASE just catching up with GREK.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #9,783
  • Aug 3, 2015 6:31am Aug 3, 2015 6:31am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Unlike GLD, I could consider going naked backwardated short puts with SLV with the expectation of assignment at desirable prices ... . The problem is that a 1 SD short put (12.5 strike/Sep expiry) will only get you a .11 cr and the back month setups (Oct and Nov) get you a similar, paltry sum, so you'd have to go big to make it worthwhile and risk assignment of a large number of shares of potential crap ... . The alternative is to just buy 100 shares of the underlying and then sell short calls against to reduce cost basis ... . The call side is...
For my sins I am long SI at 14.75 and short a Sept ATM (14.75) call (expiry 26/8). I got 37.6 for the call.
I am the world's worst trader always picking bottoms and getting burnt so take it for what it is, probably another really bad bottom-fishing call from yours truly albeit if I am wrong I will just sell an ATM call against it month after month for as long as I need to. Not very clever perhaps because if SI drops violently it doesn't work very well but c'est la vie. I don't like the idea of selling more than one call against it because when SI and GC move upwards they can move pretty violently - bear market rallies I guess.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #9,784
  • Aug 3, 2015 6:44am Aug 3, 2015 6:44am
With The S&P 2% From All Time Highs, Wall Street Bearishness Is More Extreme Than March 2009

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...eme-march-2009
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #9,785
  • Aug 3, 2015 6:52am Aug 3, 2015 6:52am
if dow drops below 17400 that is really shit to start the month for equities
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #9,786
  • Aug 3, 2015 7:35am Aug 3, 2015 7:35am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Don't think you should be concerned about them. I'm sitting on a naked ES put call 2080, having closed an underlying long and short put, happy to hold and roll it, but not to add in the unlikely event we go higher. If we get a dip I'll probably sell put against it, maybe 2150/60/whatever.
Sold a 2085 weekly put for 9 against my short call (turns out it's a 2085 call, not 2080).
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #9,787
  • Aug 3, 2015 7:37am Aug 3, 2015 7:37am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I was watching the NYSE Composite on Friday to see how it behaved at the 200dma. Was anybody else watching? ...
Hi BW.
I trade /ES and /NQ, but it is always a good thing to watch other US indices as well. On last down move we had /NQ breaching to new ATH, but others didn't follow. Prior to that, Russel2000 was making new ATH, but others didn't follow. To me, that represent just rotation from one sector or group of stocks to another. This bull market is quite old, and IMO, this is exactly what happens in that last phase - that only a handful of stocks drag entire market up or sideways. It can last for months, years...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,788
  • Aug 3, 2015 7:59am Aug 3, 2015 7:59am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Hi BW. I trade /ES and /NQ, but it is always a good thing to watch other US indices as well. On last down move we had /NQ breaching to new ATH, but others didn't follow. Prior to that, Russel2000 was making new ATH, but others didn't follow. To me, that represent just rotation from one sector or group of stocks to another. This bull market is quite old, and IMO, this is exactly what happens in that last phase - that only a handful of stocks drag entire market up or sideways. It can last for months, years...
Hi Stray
Fair point.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #9,789
  • Aug 3, 2015 8:06am Aug 3, 2015 8:06am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} ASE just catching up with GREK.
yep, kinda funny....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,790
  • Aug 3, 2015 8:17am Aug 3, 2015 8:17am
Is anybody taking a bite out of AAPL? Feels like I should be getting long here somehow (maybe selling a bull put spread), sitting right at the 200dma. But I've been burnt so many times on stocks in the past (then again I was probably going against the trend so probably deserved it)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #9,791
  • Aug 3, 2015 8:19am Aug 3, 2015 8:19am
Quoting Boy Wonder
... I have seen the tastytrade videos where the geezer (forget his name) says "heh heh you can't possibly know where it's going so why bother, that's why we do non-directional trades and we make millions heh heh it's easy heh heh look at all those fools trying to predict the market heh heh" and when I saw that video I had this "eureka" moment - "that's where I've been going wrong!!!" etc. But it turned out to be for me a load of bollocks and cost me a lot of money.
Yep. I paid for that lesson also. I don't agree with that approach. Market awareness -> yes by all means, but you must look at charts also. Black-Scholes option pricing model is NOT enough for making a decision, especially on individual stocks. As I said before, Black-Scholes don't know if u/l is on support, resistance, trend-line, fib retracement... On individual stocks -> even more unknown things (sudden retirement, resignation, death... of CFO, CEO... all sort of SHTF stuff). So, relying solely on POP from platform is just not good enough. We must use everything we have at our disposal.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,792
  • Aug 3, 2015 8:29am Aug 3, 2015 8:29am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yep. I paid for that lesson also. I don't agree with that approach. Market awareness -> yes by all means, but you must look at charts also. Black-Scholes option pricing model is NOT enough for making a decision, especially on individual stocks. As I said before, Black-Scholes don't know if u/l is on support, resistance, trend-line, fib retracement... On individual stocks -> even more unknown things (sudden retirement, resignation, death... of CFO, CEO... all sort of SHTF stuff). So, relying solely on POP from platform is just not good enough....
Do you use Black-Scholes? You make the calculations yourself? I just take what the market is offering.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #9,793
  • Aug 3, 2015 8:31am Aug 3, 2015 8:31am
trying to fill a VXX call fly, Oct $20/23/26 for $0.12, also have a VXX Dec call vert, DEc $21/22 for $0.12 ordered, no fills....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,794
  • Aug 3, 2015 9:09am Aug 3, 2015 9:09am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Do you use Black-Scholes? You make the calculations yourself? I just take what the market is offering.
I think our platforms use it for POP calculation.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,795
  • Aug 3, 2015 9:49am Aug 3, 2015 9:49am
Quoting The Fool
trying to fill a VXX call fly, Oct $20/23/26 for $0.12, also have a VXX Dec call vert, DEc $21/22 for $0.12 ordered, no fills....
might've filled it.....red August plans are looking OK.....NFP will bring it
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,796
  • Edited 10:40am Aug 3, 2015 10:30am | Edited 10:40am
Me like red candles, oh me like....

Apple (AAPL) Stock Retreats, No Longer China's Biggest Smartphone Vendor

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AAPL.PNG Size: 151 KB


/NQ took a nice hit...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,797
  • Aug 3, 2015 3:47pm Aug 3, 2015 3:47pm
Would a full-on alien invasion be market-positive? Maybe it would keep the Fed from hiking....?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/...usaolp00000592
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,798
  • Aug 3, 2015 4:49pm Aug 3, 2015 4:49pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yep. I paid for that lesson also. I don't agree with that approach. Market awareness -> yes by all means, but you must look at charts also. Black-Scholes option pricing model is NOT enough for making a decision, especially on individual stocks. As I said before, Black-Scholes don't know if u/l is on support, resistance, trend-line, fib retracement... On individual stocks -> even more unknown things (sudden retirement, resignation, death... of CFO, CEO... all sort of SHTF stuff). So, relying solely on POP from platform is just not good enough....
Agree with that whole-heartedly ... . Total crap to not look at the chart of the underlying. Here's a common example: SPY's current yearly high is around 213. If you set up an iron condor just relying on the 1 SD (standard deviation) and/or POP percentage, you'd be placing the short call vert portion of your setup in very thin territory. There is almost no juice/delta in the calls up there around the 1 SD. Since SPY's price hasn't broken 213 yet, I say use common sense and place your short call verts a bit above the 213 strike to allow some room for the trade to breathe and on the notion that 213 is resistance ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,799
  • Aug 3, 2015 4:59pm Aug 3, 2015 4:59pm
Quoting StrayDog
Me like red candles, oh me like.... Apple (AAPL) Stock Retreats, No Longer China's Biggest Smartphone Vendor {image} /NQ took a nice hit...
Me also like ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,800
  • Aug 3, 2015 5:11pm Aug 3, 2015 5:11pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I say use common sense and place your short call verts a bit above the 213 strike to allow some room for the trade to breathe and on the notion that 213 is resistance ... .
well, ok, $214 or $215 short legs kind of a no brainer, but where do you cast your net when the SnP keeps falling? I'm still stung from the last mofo V-bottom. I think we could get some accelerated flows out of equities into the teeth of the mighty Sept 25 bps hike and the end of life as we know it. We will get down to the bottom of the channel, SPY $203-204, bounce around for a week, and then keep on truckin....short puts the dicey play, better keep shorting calls while the iv is up. Get on the super bear train and let the calls' credit fund some long put plays........ been a lackluster year and I need to make some hay.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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