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Discovering An Edge

  • #901
  • Aug 3, 2015 2:09am Aug 3, 2015 2:09am
Quoting panamamike
L GA 2.1435
1/2 off +20
  • #902
  • Aug 3, 2015 3:19am Aug 3, 2015 3:19am
TS hit +5
  • #903
  • Aug 3, 2015 3:58am Aug 3, 2015 3:58am
L G CAD 2.0552
  • #904
  • Aug 3, 2015 4:58am Aug 3, 2015 4:58am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} A superoptimistic attempt of cycle projection for wheat futures. Sharp growth till ~5.7$, then choppy action reaching 6$ on ~7th of August, maximum at ~6.25$, cca 11th of August, finally a sharp drop to ~5.125$, cca 21st of August. I am really curious to see how well this works. Cheers, k {image}
Update: wheat has broken down through the support trendline last week, opened the monthly candle with a gap down, and looks like it could be heading lower. My buy grid is predominantly inactive (just two trades stopped out), but I am now considering a sell grid, and would decide about it after the Chicago open today. The problem is the lack of a model for the downside - I will work on one tonight.

k
  • #905
  • Aug 4, 2015 1:53am Aug 4, 2015 1:53am
After the wording change by the RBA, we have seen a big pop in AUD, and NZD has come along for the ride. Given the recent trend in dairy prices etc, I will watch for a reversal of NZD strength later today (late USA if US numbers don't make it happen earlier).
  • #906
  • Aug 4, 2015 5:20am Aug 4, 2015 5:20am
Quoting panamamike
After the wording change by the RBA, we have seen a big pop in AUD, and NZD has come along for the ride. Given the recent trend in dairy prices etc, I will watch for a reversal of NZD strength later today (late USA if US numbers don't make it happen earlier).
Thanks for that Mike. Indeed that AUD spike I think may be a short (1 month-ish) counter trend as I don't believe AUD has bottomed out yet.

I actually think that August is going to be less volatile than previous months as Summer holidays kick in. I too will probably be a little less active. I've got a few bits of research that I'm going to be working on.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #907
  • Aug 4, 2015 5:57am Aug 4, 2015 5:57am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Thanks for that Mike. Indeed that AUD spike I think may be a short (1 month-ish) counter trend as I don't believe AUD has bottomed out yet. I actually think that August is going to be less volatile than previous months as Summer holidays kick in. I too will probably be a little less active. I've got a few bits of research that I'm going to be working on.
I am planning on renting a beach house for a few weeks here in August. However, I think this week will have lots of action, so will be leaving this weekend and back after Labor Day. Will still do a bit of trading, inky less volume and in a relaxing place
  • #908
  • Aug 4, 2015 6:02am Aug 4, 2015 6:02am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Thanks for that Mike. Indeed that AUD spike I think may be a short (1 month-ish) counter trend as I don't believe AUD has bottomed out yet. I actually think that August is going to be less volatile than previous months as Summer holidays kick in. I too will probably be a little less active. I've got a few bits of research that I'm going to be working on.
I Like AUD vs CAD and NZD.
  • #909
  • Aug 4, 2015 6:38am Aug 4, 2015 6:38am
Quoting panamamike
{quote} I Like AUD vs CAD and NZD.
Looking at AUDNZD, it seems that it could be headed for target 11413.5
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #910
  • Aug 4, 2015 9:16am Aug 4, 2015 9:16am
Dare I say it.... 11024 for EURUSD?
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #911
  • Aug 4, 2015 11:43am Aug 4, 2015 11:43am
I went long Gn at 2.3714
  • #912
  • Aug 4, 2015 11:50am Aug 4, 2015 11:50am
half off +25.....looking for 2.3780 area rest.
  • #913
  • Aug 4, 2015 12:17pm Aug 4, 2015 12:17pm
I have opened longs on
GBPCAD @ 20479
GBPAUD @ 21053
EURUSD @ 10956/10975
and a short on AUDUSD @ 7417
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #914
  • Aug 4, 2015 12:49pm Aug 4, 2015 12:49pm
Target hit GN 2.3780 +66
  • #915
  • Aug 4, 2015 12:51pm Aug 4, 2015 12:51pm
Quoting panamamike
Target hit GN 2.3780 +66
Nice one Mike, that was an awesome trade. Missed out on entry but it kept going!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #916
  • Aug 4, 2015 12:53pm Aug 4, 2015 12:53pm
Quoting vlady1974
I have opened longs on GBPCAD @ 20479 GBPAUD @ 21053 EURUSD @ 10956/10975 and a short on AUDUSD @ 7417
EU dead, but added GCAD.
All stops to BE
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #917
  • Aug 4, 2015 1:01pm Aug 4, 2015 1:01pm
Quoting vlady1974
I have opened longs on GBPCAD @ 20479 GBPAUD @ 21053 EURUSD @ 10956/10975 and a short on AUDUSD @ 7417
i have the same trades except eu. you may also want to check out gbpjpy. i am speculating it will go up.
As Above, So Below
  • #918
  • Aug 4, 2015 1:17pm Aug 4, 2015 1:17pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Nice one Mike, that was an awesome trade. Missed out on entry but it kept going!
Thanks man....just caught a couple USd long scalps on Lockhart hawkish rate comments.
  • #919
  • Aug 4, 2015 1:42pm Aug 4, 2015 1:42pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} i have the same trades except eu. you may also want to check out gbpjpy. i am speculating it will go up.
Hey Tash, that's awesome - I know you were eyeing AUD and have to applaud your ability to sense the prevailing trend!
Thanks for the heads up on GBPJPY. Using my method, I can't see a signal so would love to know if you can shed some clues?!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #920
  • Aug 4, 2015 1:56pm Aug 4, 2015 1:56pm
GBPJPY
At first glance, all I could see was a clusterf*k of bars... but from a wider view then obviously GBP strength and JPY low risk has been a good Long Game.
As far as the given present or near timeframe, I can see that the cluster has a high probability of going higher based on on expanding moving averages and the potential for clearing 19400. Also, 19000 has not been tested for 1 month now.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY-1W.JPG Size: 179 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY-1H.JPG Size: 188 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
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