Which type of trader are you?

CP's each and every post will cost a lot of time, money, energy, pollution, eagerness, excitement, anger, happiness, ah ha moments, oh ho moments, frustation, etc etc....

no. I do not need to know the past. I do not need to know if that's a 123 or abc pattern. I can not know what will the price but I can have a trading plan if the price decides to go bullish and a trading plan if you decide to go bearish.

but how do I know if the answers I have given are the right ones?

"The probability is 50% (minus the spread)."

With all due respect, CrucialPoint, that statement is something to overcome, in my humble opinion. Many traders confuse probability with possibility. As you stated, there are 2 possible outcomes: 1) price continues through the line or 2) price reverses. Of course, if you want to be exact the third possibility is price stays at the line. Two possible outcomes does not imply 50% probability of occurrence. A statistical analysis of price can be conducted and statistical "probabilities" can be assigned to the possible occurrences - "53 out of last 100 times price reversed from upward trend line."

Probability and statistics are confused often. Probability does not apply to trading. Statistics does apply. Probabilities never change - roll of the dice, toss of the coin, etc.. Statistics change over time.

Anagnorisis!

There is a game with two participants, house and player, and the probability of house to win is 100%.
How do you win a game that by math is lost from start? You don't play the game.
CP is saying that for every bounce there is a break, and for every break there is a bounce. He is saying that no matter which one you decide to trade you will always have 50% chance (considering spread you lose in long run).
He is talking about mastering the basic of trendlines, he is not talking about mastering the basic of trading.
For our mind is better to think yeah this is a trendline and price will bounce here at this time and this price (this X point) in the future, it is less stressfull. But this is not the truth, it's absurd to think that something will happen in the future at a given time and space as life is a continuous flow and everything can change even in the last seconds.
What is the flow of market? I read a quote from Bruce Lee:
“You must be shapeless, formless, like water. When you pour water in a cup, it becomes the cup. When you pour water in a bottle, it becomes the bottle. When you pour water in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Water can drip and it can crash. Become like water my friend.”
Think of that quote and try to apply it to trading.
You must be shapeless, formless, like water. Isn't it illogical to use trendlines?
How do you win a game of trendlines? You don't play trendlines.
How do you trade without "history"?
What is the difference from past data, present data and future data? Isn't always a series of up and down?
You don't need to walk all over the earth to measure its circumference, there is still a simple way to calculate it.
You can break the average, you can break the data from past to present.
Is past data also part of present data?
More you trade with present data and more you are ready to an unexpected change.

Alex

intra day trader .. trading TF 15 mint trend analysis TF are H1 H4 ...i like to close all trades before the end of my day .. becoz i want to sleep with serenity

Great posts CP!

"Can somebody show me the TL and 123 patterns?"

They are there, hidden in the public charts:


source


source


source

Great book. Thanks.

I am king of thief. thanks god today I get a money, big or small its relative. and run away finish that day.

I am a short term trader, not make high targets. My low experience not supports long term trading. I like to do my trading in short time after some analysis. I am successful in my tray in making some good pips. I do not wait for a long time to favorable market, I have to make earning during daily market moves.

In Search For some Objectivity







Peace,
CrucialPoint

I have been trading for short periods of time. Not enough experience to move into a more complex long-term trade.

I'm a scalper and I often use Advisor. I choose a broker that allows you to do it.

Good watch
regards

Every trader has his own methods of doing with emotions during trading. Basically, it is the same as with managing emotions outside trading. If you are calm and know hot to keep calm in difficult situations you will carry these skills and knowledge to your FX trading environment too.

In Search For some Objectivity (part 2)


Illusions of Certainty; Risk, Probability and Chance



Your Life by the Numbers: 'Go Figure'




Peace,
CrucialPoint

I've been wanting to refresh on this topic, cheers

Cognitive Bias: The Great Wall of Forex Trading

Here is the Great Wall of Forex.
Many have tried to concur it but failed and many will continue to fail.
Only a handful have overcome cracking this wall.



Your Objective or Goal is to get to the other side of this Wall.

Here are some tools provided to you to aid with this problem.
You get a Rope, some Carrots and a Donkey.



Before you continue reading, try and solve this puzzle.

==================================================


A lot of people won't be able to solve this puzzle and only a few will.
Maybe several few will solve if given a long amount of time.
But a good number will fail to solve this problem.

The main reason is the cognitive bias in placed, unresolved.


The 1st Cognitive bias is focusing on the problem rather than the solution:

1. The wall is too high
2. There is nothing to tie the rope with
3. There is no anchor when I throw the rope on the other side.
4. The donkey can't break or ram the wall
5. The donkey can't dig under the wall
6. I still can't reach the top of the wall even standing on the donkey
7. What am I supposed to do with this carrots
8. I don't get the carrots and donkey may be any of use
9. Etc... etc... etc... and the list goes on

The 2nd Cognitive Bias is boxed mentality.

1. This is dependent on your life experience and how creative you are
2. This is dependent on how much you have developed in life in solving life problems
3. You're not much of a thinker and have not stretched the mental muscles due to environmental and external factors
4. Nobody taught you how to get out of this mental trap or you haven't learned the how by yourself

The 3rd Cognitive Bias is Unconscious Priming

1. This is due to external factors and environment factors (but can also be manually induced)
2. This Bias forces you to stay within the boxed mentality
3. This type of Bias is like a knee jerk reaction that you have no control of (your external environment will dictate most of your behavior)

So in summary:
Here you are faced with a problem (solving and trying to crack Forex) and is unable to solve it. This is because you are inclined more to focus on the problem rather than the solution. The moment you realize this, you shift your thinking. You then try to come up with the solutions. So you start to use your brain and come up with solutions. But with every solutions you come up with, fails miserably. You then realize that you need to become more creative and step out of the box and so you try more. Coming up with more elaborate and creative ideas... but then you fail again. This is because you are unaware the you have been unconsciously primed by your environment. You are delusional to think that you are thinking out of the box, but you're subjective reality says otherwise. Again, no matter how creative you become and as much as you try to stretch your brain, you fail. You are no different to a mouse running on a mouse-wheel getting nowhere.

The only true way to step outside of the box is to throw away the tools... WHAT!!!???.... Yes, it is so scary and so radical, borderline ludicrous, it doesn't make sense. That is the only true way of stepping out of the box. But then again the whole process of cognitive bias restarts and you're back at square one looking at the same wall focusing on the problem, rather than the solution. And this process to go on and on... and it doesn't help because now you are surrounded by people who's cognitive bias are out of control giving you advice and not helping you at all. Its like people are trying to help you and instead they are throwing you in the lion's den or stepping on your head to dunk you under water.

Simply put: You're in a Fucked up situation and you're not consciously aware that you are in a Fucked up situation.... Like a cow heading to a slaughter house.

The answer is stupidly simple.
Look at the wall picture again.
All you need to do is to walk around it.
But you have been psychologically primed to fail. It was no-ones fault. It's not your fault.
That's just the way life is.

If you look back at history, you will noticed that the greatest discoveries required radical shift in thinking. Destroy old beliefs and old science, yet at the same time, the answer appeared to be simple once it has been discovered. But uncovering it was a pain in the ass.

I'll write a post in the future regarding the science of direct route (the law/science of a straight line) to combat these biases.

I'll leave you with a special quote to think about:

"A man will be imprisoned in a room,

with a door that is unlocked and opens inwards,

as long as it does not occur to him to pull,

rather than push."

~ Ludwig Wittgenstein

Peace,
CrucialPoint



To be continued...

Looks more like a shooting wall!

There is only one prison's room and that is inside prisoner's mind.
They key is inside prisoner's mind but as long as he doesn't free himself from his beliefs/habits/conquests he will not realize where the key is (the key is not a real/physical key, it's a KEY ) thus he will continue to think "I'm imprisoned, oh no, they have the key and I will never go out".
The owner of the key and the owner of the prison are the same person.

Alex

I swear the answer I thought of initially was literally to just walk around the wall.

But then when the given tools were described, I thought this meant I had to actually figure a way to crest the very top of the wall and engineer some type of pulley system. I said to myself, "Damn, I guess walking around isnt' allowed."

But even then, my plan was to tie off the donkey, make him walk around the wall, and just throw carrots further and further out until he pulled me to the top.