When Price is UP, buy; when Price is Down, sell short...

Hi timilehin
I sent you a PM you may find helpful

Hi sunshine,
can you analyse EURUSD for the new week.
thanks

i'd like a helpful pm too lol

Hi amikaking

Thank you for your question...and sincere apologies to u for only responding now.

the answer to question is me is...
...[1] me... and...
...[2] the fact that i am very aware that other smart successful traders maybe watching. that alone affects my trading negatively but i'm getting a grip on that.
i'm not blaming anyone but myself because i know for a fact that my Trend Following Method is very successful consistently.
...the 3rd reason that stems mainly from no:2 above is that...i'm trading defensively, which for me manifests or translates to .... Trading not to Lose...and...

...Trading not to Lose is the direct polar opposite of Trading to Win...for me at least...other traders may find success by trading defensively but not me.

hi timilehin

i repeat my apology as in my reply to amikaking above...
Thank you for your question...sincere apologies to u for only responding now.

i will do an analysis of EURUSD now since it's both a Month End & the end of the trading week. Since the time of your request price has formed a new trading channel in the weekly which i intend to show by way of several postings.

We all know from memory the Monthly Trend Indicator timeframe is down, and the Friday July month-end confirmed that, therefore, it is unnecessary to make a detailed monthly analysis.

Here is the Weekly analysis plus i included a Line format of the Trading Timeframe also known as the Signal Generating Timeframe.

Looking at the Weekly tf:

 

1. Price is still in a down trend because no new Last Swing Highs were nullified by price closing above it. that SH is currently at 1.1155,
2. however, long probes off the 4hr tf is in order...WHY ? Let me explain please... the last red very bearish candle indicated a downward continuation of price {this candle almost formed an engulfing price pattern candlestick and it has such a long bearish body}. However, the next week did not follow thru but produced a bullish candle that closed halfway up the body of the red candle...When this pattern formed it alerted me that the strengthening of the USD may come to a end. This resulted in my trading mindset switching to Long.
3. to that effect i took an exploratory long sometime during last week and opened up several Long Buy Stops because i anticipated strong and rapid-quick follow-thru, but when price failed to carry thru on it's promised upside momentum (coming from new bulls and also short squeezing) i closed out that scout for a tiny loss but booked some gains on another pair, i think it was the GBPJPY pair that i was long.
4. this week closed neither here nor there, i.e. a doji formed.
5. Conclusion:: Look for buy signals in 4hr tf and/or trade intraday until the long term tf clearly shows its intention...the yellow x on the 4hr tf is a reminder to me that i'm looking for a +BRB.
6. i will do the Daily next as a gift to dagoods.

​

hi gopips

i assumed u filled-in for me with that analysis, if so, kindly show me what your analysis was. u may pm or post it here please. thank you.
PS: i'm just curious and hope u don't mind.

hello dagoods,

again i apologise for this late reply and i hope my analysis may be of benefit to u, either u can trade against my recommendation or u may follow it, makes no difference as long as u gain.

let's do the Daily chart interpretation.

i have include 2 Daily charts, one in Line format zoomed out to show the Trading Channel that price outlined. it is essentially the same price channel that is present in the weekly chart above of the last posting. the range is about 800 pips.

 

1. The green x's points out the trading signals as per the Monthly Down Trend.
2. the white x's points out the the counter trend trading signals generated by the Daily tf for itself and by itself...some signals is price closing above LSH's and some signals are in relation the prior daily candle pattern formed.
3. Conclusion: [a] trade the daily long and/or trade intraday long. [b] Should price form a bearish Daily reversal bar then it means shorts are back in fashion and that short signal is valid and can be traded as such.

Let's do the Geppy.
just want to say the direction to trade the USDCAD (Loonie) is up...according to my method and analysis.

ok, i will present the Weekly analysis that indicate which way to trade using the lower tf's, in this case the 4hrs.
Please study the charts below...the trade direction for the coming week should speak for itself. i have include price channels but these are only there to lend structure as they are not essential at all. The yellow x in the 4hrs is there to remind me what i am anticipating...a Bullish Reversal Bar (+brb)

if u are new to this thread and my trend-following method then these 4 charts below sum up my method.
NB: they show the heart of my method. you can either upscale or downscale but the essence shall remain the same.

Following on from my Weekend posts [post 228] above where i mentioned that this is the Heart of my Trading Method and one can either up-scale or down-scale the timeframes but the essence of the method shall [not will] remain the same. So here is a live example of a down-scale or intraday version;

...i have taken a buy in 30mins off Entry Signals there in that tf,....this tf now becomes the Signal Generating Timeframe.
...the 4hrs served as my Trend Indicator Tf...meaning, the 4hrs informed me which way to trade.
...i entered a long probe which by its nature is a trade size much less than my normal 0.1 lot trade size. one may also call this initial probe a sacrificial probe bcz i'm willing to lose.
...this is a sacrificial probe bcz my eye is on a 4hr long.

the x on the 30min tf indicates the buy entry signal.

right now it doesn't look like the current 4hrs will close green bcz we have a violent downside price reversal, but i'm still holding the probe for reasons already explained.

i hope the chosen example below.

Very good post, and very neatly explained. A question I have for you would be, if a rally is looked at on a daily basics, isn't it clear to see that the rallying STOPS at what we know as "pivots"? I actually took a look at the pair which you mentioned, and like all other pairs the high and low after every single trading day happened to be at one of the daily 7 pivots, and if the s3 or r3 pivot was breached then the currency would make a B line to the MONTHLY pivot.
Essentially, even when we look at a higher tf chart and compare it to a lower tf chart, we always see a stopping in price action right after NY trades, and prior to when london opens where as most of the wicks created on the h4 or the daily is created right at that time. Would it be possible for us to focus on getting on the rally train during London open or Asia open since that is when the price action typically kicks off.

Hello PaulAdrian

yes u are correct on all counts. should u wish to include Pivots, whether they are Monthly, Weekly, Daily or intraday please do so if it serves to bring clarity to your understanding and interpretation of the price charts.
as for myself, i do not bother with any Pivots but the Last Swing High [LSH] and the Last Swing Low [LSL] as found in a Line Chart that utilises the closing price.

Your last question and observation about price coming to life when London Opens [LO] are spot-on...we can and do focus on the LO and we also use that as a stand-alone trading strategy. that ofcourse depends if are present at that time.
you may have noticed that the Frankfurt Open can move price one way and the LO reverse that direction, so yes we do trade that open.
If you look at my posted charts then u will notice in white .."LO 10amCAT".. that is there to remind me to keep an eye on the LO.
The New York Open [NYO] i tend forget about bcz by that time i should have finished my trading and placing of trades. NYO around 2:30 CAT {my time}

u welcome to come back to me, because of that i will appreciate it if your questions can be posted in my thread rather than here because this thread is dedicate to an fx pair.

one more suggestion..should u go through that thread then go thru it from start to finish until u feel that u understood the concepts then open a demo account with a broker and put into practice your understanding...the results of your demo will reflect that the method is faulty or that your understanding and/or implementation is faulty.

important: only study one method at a time before moving to study another method (does not matter if u start with mine or another person's). there are 100's of strategies and methods here. it does not matter if u study my method first then implement or some else's method first...what matters is that u fully follow thru with one method at a time rather than jumping from indicator-less method to one which uses one or many indicators.

u will know when u arrived home...the method and strategy will become part of u...effortlessly.

EDIT: i will copy and paste this same answer in my thread under Trading Discussion so that u won't have to look for it.

re-posting from GBPAUD thread of 25 August 2015


Quoting duderoo1
{quote} Please do I am keen to learn!

ok, here it is...very straight forward and simple to implement.


Firstly we have to set up some boundaries, rules and limitations:

 

1. this is an intra-day strategy,
2. therefore, multiple entries will be executed,
3. because of multiple entries we enter with a risk or lot size 10% to 20% of our usual trade size.(especially on this extreme high volatility pair) so if your usual trade size is 0.1 then u will change that to 0.01. (i use 0.02)
4. the most recent 4hr bar that closed must be an Up bar.
5. overlay a 100 bar EMA in the 30mins chart.

​The Strategy: 30-4 ...for longs.

1. last 4hr bar closed green,
2. check if price closed above the 30min ema, that is the 100b ema.
3. if yes, enter a buy.
4. Stop Loss is 10 pips below last 4hr bar. if done this way then the most losses incurred should 4hrs suddenly spike down or reverse, will be limited to 2 (edit: to entries taken during last 4hr bar) and the other long entries will be stopped-out at gains.
5. enter long after next 30min bar closed...the colour of this bar does not matter.
6. keep doing that after each 30mins close, irrespective if last 30mins was red or green, (edit: or enter only on green bars)
7. provided the last 4hrs closed UP.
8. no 4hr green bar... no trade,
9. price in 30mins below 100b EMA... no trade.
10. Profit Target: leave open or enter 100 pips for each of your buys...or exit after a red 4hr bar formed, wait for it to close red and not before.

be​low is an example of what i mean.

EDIT: although the current 4hrs is showing a blue or green bar on the chart below...we do not enter yet because the current 4hr bar did not close yet, it may very well reverse and close down.

What is your take on GBP/CAD, small spread and seemingly as wild as GA?

yes, i have been watching that pair for longs. the GBPAUD is still the top dog as far as daily price range is concerned, the spread is about the same.



the Weekly and Monthly trends are Up.

therefore, according to my method i have taken longs already in another account, of which i'm posting the 4hr entries. Stoploss is tight as u will notice.

[attach]1742406[/attach]

Just to remind me for this coming trading week, which way to trade...what to lookout for and which strategy to use...that's the function of the following 4hr charts

...feel free to contradict, agree and/or ask for explanations while i'm online.


the first 3 charts are for the GBPAUD, EURAUD and the Loonie.
note: nothing is random, each chart colour and x's and lines are all there for a specific reason, thus when i look at any one of these 4hr charts, it comes alive...it tells me a story.

the last arrows on the chart shows anticipated trade direction...and the start of the next new day may determine whether the trade direction is still intact or the trade direction in 4hrs have reversed.

the next 3 x 4hr charts are;

 

1. GBPCAD
2. Geppy
3. Cable

and here we have the commodities...

1. Gold
2. Copper and
3. Oil

​

and here are a few Open trades that i fully expect to be stopped-out. i hope to be able to move the USDJPY trade above breakeven.

that Weekly green bar telegraphs a reversal to me. maybe a retracement to between 25% and 50% of the Weekly bar...the red dotted lines shows where i anticipate reversal may occur.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)