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Support and Resistance Method - Pharley

  • #21
  • Aug 1, 2015 5:13pm Aug 1, 2015 5:13pm
Quoting pharley
Hi Tooslow, If you look at the chart at 2, you can see the last price move from support to resistance to the left of the arrow. That height is what I'm measuring, then taking 90% of it for my target. Chart 3 shows a closer view of it with a modified fib on the chart to measure it. You don't have to use a fib like that - just take top from bottom to get the range in pips and calc 90% of it. If you want to go for 80%, use that figure. Cheers
( 185.06 - 175.42 ) * 0.90 = 8.676

175.42 + 8.67 = 184.09 ?? What am I missing, pharley?

Also, do you agree with the S/R levels in this chart?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYWeekly.png Size: 48 KB
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #22
  • Aug 1, 2015 5:23pm Aug 1, 2015 5:23pm
Hi Tooslow,

Not missing anything there mate - I had a TP at 184.04 - just a few pips different.

Yes those SR levels look fine to me.
Cheers
  • #23
  • Aug 1, 2015 7:07pm Aug 1, 2015 7:07pm
Subscribed
FXerha
  • #24
  • Aug 1, 2015 10:27pm Aug 1, 2015 10:27pm
subscribed..
  • #25
  • Aug 2, 2015 12:34am Aug 2, 2015 12:34am
pharley, thanks for sharing. Your method is simple and rational, both of which is very important.
It would be nice to have an explorer, or at least some live calls so that the interested people can learn the method in real time.

Cheers,
k
  • #26
  • Aug 2, 2015 1:03am Aug 2, 2015 1:03am
Hi kprsa,

Yes some live calls might be the way to go. Next time I'm trading I'll post screen shots as I'm doing it.

I don't have an explorer or anything. I know someone asked me before about trade explorer - I took a look at it, but I can't really see the value in it other than for everyone to see how well or not I'm doing. No one will learn anything from that and it's just an ego booster for me which is a no-no. Ego has no place in trading - we're all here to do our best and try to make some money out of this.

Like everyone else, sometimes I win, sometimes lose. But I'm confident with my method and risk mgt so I enter without thinking when I see a set up.

Just a further little bit on a 50% retrace entry on the 4hr charts. What I'm looking for is price moving away from (eg) support and moving higher than the recent price action - if this is a pin bar on the daily or engulfing, I'm very interested in trading it. I use the fib by place the bottom (0%) and the low, and as each 4hr candle gets higher, adjust the 100% value of the fib to the top of the candle. Then I place a pending order at the 50% level. Of course the lot size gets adjusted with each move to maintain the same level of risk. If there are a few 4hr candles starting to appear with lower highs, I leave fib at the highest point of the move. If price comes back to fill the trade, great. I trust in the PA and my risk mgt to keep me safe.

If price moves well away from that area, I forget that retrace entry and look for others.

On the other entry I mainly use - I simple wait until the first 4hr candle of a new day closes above the high (in effect minor resistance) of the previous days high, then enter at market.

Continuation candles in the middle of the run are taken normally as pin bar plays, inside bars plays. That's all there is to it.

This pic shows 2 x 50% retrace entries on 4hr. The red lines are the SL of T1 and T2 as they are originally placed. I would be moving T1 SL up to T2 SL as price moves up, then keep moving all SL for all trades up to the latest SL area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: example 50% retrace.PNG Size: 43 KB
  • #27
  • Aug 2, 2015 3:37am Aug 2, 2015 3:37am
Hello Pharley

Great method of long term trading and thanks for posting it.
How many pairs are on your watch list?
Regards
  • #28
  • Aug 2, 2015 4:38am Aug 2, 2015 4:38am
One of the best threads I've seen here.

This method is so solidly-based, on parameters that actually mean something, that even "scaled-down" versions of it, on faster time-frames, can also be steadily profitable, with appropriate position-sizing - albeit with a lower overall win-rate. (I trade this without using the Fibonacci lines, myself, deriving targets from the ATR.) But the time-frame version described here is more reliable.

Thanks indeed for a "solid, sensible" thread.
  • #29
  • Aug 2, 2015 8:13am Aug 2, 2015 8:13am
Hello,
i really like this method. I have a question about the picture that you uploaded (added it as an attachment) - i don't really know why do you have 2 fibos on that chart. What is the reason for it?

Thank you very much.
Attached Image
  • #30
  • Aug 2, 2015 9:33am Aug 2, 2015 9:33am
this is one of the best thread here. subscribe...
  • #31
  • Aug 2, 2015 11:04am Aug 2, 2015 11:04am
Quoting pharley
Here is another I took more recently on the GBPJPY. I wasn't able to get in front of the charts as much during this run, and only entered 3 times but still managed to get just under 1750 pips (only 2 trades are shown): {image}
Hi Pharley, really like what I'm reading and keen to learn more and start to trade this
Subscribed
  • #32
  • Aug 2, 2015 2:07pm Aug 2, 2015 2:07pm
Quoting howard
Hello Pharley Great method of long term trading and thanks for posting it. How many pairs are on your watch list?
Hi Howard and thanks for the comment. Normally I have charts set up for the following:

gbpjpy
eurjpy
usdjpy
gbpusd
eurusd
audusd
usdchf
gbpchf
euraud
gbpaud
eurnzd
gbpnzd
nzdusd
  • #33
  • Aug 2, 2015 2:07pm Aug 2, 2015 2:07pm
pharley , thanks for starting it and may u carry on all the way , will read all pages tomorrow , im going to bed now as it is 23h00
  • #34
  • Aug 2, 2015 2:10pm Aug 2, 2015 2:10pm
Quoting Xela
One of the best threads I've seen here. This method is so solidly-based, on parameters that actually mean something, that even "scaled-down" versions of it, on faster time-frames, can also be steadily profitable, with appropriate position-sizing - albeit with a lower overall win-rate. (I trade this without using the Fibonacci lines, myself, deriving targets from the ATR.) But the time-frame version described here is more reliable. Thanks indeed for a "solid, sensible" thread.
Thanks Xela,

Yes I may work on a lower time frame as price is somewhat fractal in nature. Perhaps using 4hr SR with 15m candle entries going off those area? I don't know as I haven't checked it out but might be worth a look. Perhaps I'm getting lazier in my old age but I prefer the longer timeframes!

No, really it's because I find anything under 4hr too noisy for me. Everytime I look at a 1 hour chart, I always end up zooming as far out as I can as I feel I can't see the big picture.

Anyway good luck with that and your trading - don't worry about the fib lines - I use it purely as a measuring tool and not as a fib at all.

Cheers
  • #35
  • Aug 2, 2015 2:16pm Aug 2, 2015 2:16pm
Quoting OSsloth
Hello, i really like this method. I have a question about the picture that you uploaded (added it as an attachment) - i don't really know why do you have 2 fibos on that chart. What is the reason for it? Thank you very much. {image}
Hi OSsloth,

Thanks for the question.

I only use a fib as a measuring tool and not as a true fib.

I was fed up with taking the top of a range and the bottom, taking one from the other, multiplying by 90% etc. So I just altered the fib tool - took off the normal setting and added my own. On Mt4 I can actually name the lines as SL, 50% entry, 1R, 2R etc. Not sure how to do that on cTrader, but it's the same thing.

So on that pic, there are 2 because I'm jut showing 2 retraces. Blue fib for the first retrace and grey for the second. Sorry if it looks a bit confusing - 2 pics might have been better!

By modifying the fib (I don't use normal fib levels at all) I can use it for measuring runs and the 90% of them for my targets, also use it for retraces, and also I can see at a glance what risk:reward I can expect to get out of a trade - so it just speeds up the process for me.

Hope that helps!
Cheers
  • #36
  • Aug 2, 2015 2:21pm Aug 2, 2015 2:21pm
Quoting Prax
{quote} Hi Pharley, really like what I'm reading and keen to learn more and start to trade this Subscribed
Hi Prax and thanks - glad you can get something out of this. I think the key to it is simplicity and just not overcomplicating things.

Support and resistance - there are quite a few good threads on here covering these points and they're right - it's a must learn for any trader and I suspect the real key to success.

This method is just using a few well known PA methods and principles and applying them in such a way so as to get multiple entries on a run. As a newbie some years ago I never ever thought about entering multiple times. Now with some good set ups, trade mgt and risk mgt, I try and do this all the time.

Cheers
  • #37
  • Aug 2, 2015 2:22pm Aug 2, 2015 2:22pm
Quoting terminator12
pharley , thanks for starting it and may u carry on all the way , will read all pages tomorrow , im going to bed now as it is 23h00
Thanks mate - sleep well and don't dream of charts and pips!
  • #38
  • Aug 2, 2015 3:19pm Aug 2, 2015 3:19pm
Just so everyone can be on the same page:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDecnH1.png Size: 39 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 ###Daily-Weekly-Monthly Hi-Low.ex4   42 KB | 1,113 downloads
File Type: mq4 ###Daily-Weekly-Monthly Hi-Low.mq4   20 KB | 1,204 downloads
File Type: ex4 FiboPiv_v2.ex4   21 KB | 1,178 downloads
  • #39
  • Aug 2, 2015 3:36pm Aug 2, 2015 3:36pm
Hi 4xplosion,

Thanks for the post. I find the chart a bit busy and confusing though. It's probably because 1) I got rid of indies some time ago and 2) also I don't really consider the 1hr charts. I find them too noisy. 3) Plus it's probably my old eyes can't take it anymore! (yes, old fart here).

I prefer to just have the SR on and de-clutter the charts like the one below of the eurusd. But look, if you're getting some good wins with it - great! Go for it! I'm really not in to telling anyone how to trade - we're all different and have different preferences.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.PNG Size: 41 KB
  • #40
  • Edited 5:02pm Aug 2, 2015 4:48pm | Edited 5:02pm
Quoting pharley
Hi 4xplosion, Thanks for the post. I find the chart a bit busy and confusing though. It's probably because 1) I got rid of indies some time ago and 2) also I don't really consider the 1hr charts. I find them too noisy. 3) Plus it's probably my old eyes can't take it anymore! (yes, old fart here). I prefer to just have the SR on and de-clutter the charts like the one below of the eurusd. But look, if you're getting some good wins with it - great! Go for it! I'm really not in to telling anyone how to trade - we're all different and have different...

thanks for your input, it's your thread and don't want to hijack it.....but I have found that fibs and s/r can get quite subjective....just trying to wrap my head around the whole idea/concept......part of the learning curve.....that being said....could you possibly post some charts B4 you enter a trade so we can all learn together....with 4hr charts...we can all anticipate and monitor together....any input on the nzdusd 4hr from you would be appreciated...I tend to lean towards bullishness atm...the Monthly high is at 6604....seems like if it can penetrate...would be a good place for a run long...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDecnH4.png Size: 55 KB
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