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  • #9,701
  • Jul 30, 2015 4:28am Jul 30, 2015 4:28am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} good to see you back, BW, misery loves company. Nah, I jest.....things are going ok......I'm just tired of the CB's, trying to remember a time when they didn't run the markets.
LOL :0)

I know what you mean and god knows how much money I've let the market take out of me for fighting the trends (or should I say the CBs), so much so that after many years now in this game I am resigned to the fact that we must play the deck as it is dealt not as we would like it to be dealt.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #9,702
  • Jul 30, 2015 4:41am Jul 30, 2015 4:41am
Deterioration in NYSE Composite - NYA200R is the percentage of stocks above the 200DMA.
Note the 20/200 crossover, and looming 50/200 crossover.
And that the 200dma is flat and 20 and 50 pointing downwards.
And the lower highs and lower lows and the lower low on the NYA200R.
Not saying it's gonna crack today, tomorrow, next month, and it's in a range, not a bear, so it could breakout to the topside, certainly, but we need to see some higher highs and higher lows first.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 75 KB
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #9,703
  • Jul 30, 2015 5:17am Jul 30, 2015 5:17am
interesting chart BW........GDP up in a lil while, many the wonk saying 3.3% now.....a big beat like that then a monster Aug NFP.....should set the stage for an Aug slide for US equities, just a slow grind down into the teeth of a Sept ffr hike. If I am tempted to pair bear put spreads out Sept5 to make IC's on the bear call vert sets, idk....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,704
  • Jul 30, 2015 6:15am Jul 30, 2015 6:15am
Quoting The Fool
interesting chart BW........GDP up in a lil while, many the wonk saying 3.3% now.....a big beat like that then a monster Aug NFP.....should set the stage for an Aug slide for US equities, just a slow grind down into the teeth of a Sept ffr hike. If I am tempted to pair bear put spreads out Sept5 to make IC's on the bear call vert sets, idk....
3.3% eh? Well, it was nice knowing you....look after yourself...
Btw the Atlanta Fed looks like it has 2.4% https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx
Regarding NFP, I read something on a wallstreetexaminer email recently where he said he reckons the August NFP is going to come in weak:

"The July 12 week was the reference week for the July payrolls survey. The numbers for that week were weaker than the June numbers, suggesting that Wall Street economists are likely to find their estimates for July are too high. Whether the cockamamie seasonally adjusted headline number reflects that reality or not is a crapshoot. It takes the BLS 7 revisions of the SA data over 5 years to fit it to the actual trend. The first release is hit or miss. But even if the number comes in below expectations, it probably will not influence the Fed, which remains hellbent on trying to get rates up sooner rather than later."

Regarding that chart, the NYSE Composite failed last week (or the week before) right at the 50dma; if it closes above that it could be a serious sign that the bull has new legs, perhaps a bit like the acceleration we saw in the SPX in 2007 as that bull matured before rolling over for good.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #9,705
  • Edited 10:07am Jul 30, 2015 8:35am | Edited 10:07am
With /ES @ 2096 -> sold another call spread... /ES Sep 2140/2170 for $9.00 CR

Add-ons:
1) Closed that for $8.00 db for fun. No PDT rules here folks. Beautiful.

2) Forgot to say, that right at the open, when we had that lil' spike, I had some orders for short... SPX CFDs on 2105... price went to 214.90 2104.90 and fell 10 points.

3) But, I got a fill on /NQ weekly bear spread 4520/4510 for $1.60 debit. Hoping to see /NQ sell-of tomorrow, and visiting 4500 area.

Made some $ on DAX short also... I am all over the place today.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,706
  • Jul 30, 2015 9:20am Jul 30, 2015 9:20am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} LOL :0) I know what you mean and god knows how much money I've let the market take out of me for fighting the trends (or should I say the CBs), so much so that after many years now in this game I am resigned to the fact that we must play the deck as it is dealt not as we would like it to be dealt.
So we were all in the same boat.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,707
  • Jul 30, 2015 10:13am Jul 30, 2015 10:13am
Shorting LNKD right at the open was nice play also... But I had a bunch of index orders... Was thinking to hit the mofo around $232 in premarket, then changed my mind, wanted to use the stock CFDs instead (no PDT rules on them), but they work RTH only... Then when show started, I was preoccupied with other things. So many opps today.

The logic behind this short idea was -> TWTR down big time, FB down.. so no matter what LNKD publish in its earnings, it will probably go down into the earnings, or at least initially go down.

I just wish I have more time to discuss some ideas BEFORE open.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,708
  • Jul 30, 2015 10:19am Jul 30, 2015 10:19am
"Interesting" PA on /NQ... with AAPL, TSLA, FB, GOOGL, YHOO, BABA down... it is almost at zero, just -0.07%

(DDD down almost 9%, well that and YELP are shining examples of total FUBAR)
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,709
  • Jul 30, 2015 11:09am Jul 30, 2015 11:09am
Quoting StrayDog
"Interesting" PA on /NQ... with AAPL, TSLA, FB, GOOGL, YHOO, BABA down... it is almost at zero, just -0.07% (DDD down almost 9%, well that and YELP are shining examples of total FUBAR)
NFLX is up 2.5%; it's broken above a bull flag / bull trend line. But yeah, AAPL down, IBB down also. I think if today closes kinda flat we'll see what the market really thinks with what it prints tomorrow. A move above Wednesday's high tomorrow or early next week suggests to me perhaps a push to 2135 SPX is coming.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #9,710
  • Jul 30, 2015 1:08pm Jul 30, 2015 1:08pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} ok, managed to buy the strangle on TWTR for $38 call at 1.64 plus the $35 put for 1.66 had some waiting to do Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) -NYSE 36.47 1.77(5.10%) 3:38PM BST - Nasdaq Real Time Price
closed the trade, may follow through but not taking the risk, break even after 2 days be in it after earnings

TWTR Jul 2015 35.000 put (TWTR150731P00035000)
-OPR
3.45 0.46(11.76%) 18:41
  • #9,711
  • Jul 30, 2015 1:26pm Jul 30, 2015 1:26pm
looking to do another ER play on FEYE, release after the market. May have to go 2 strikes away on either side to get it for a reasonable price, looking for a outlier move. Final decision will be taken 10 minutes before closing time
  • #9,712
  • Jul 30, 2015 2:49pm Jul 30, 2015 2:49pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
looking to do another ER play on FEYE, release after the market. May have to go 2 strikes away on either side to get it for a reasonable price, looking for a outlier move. Final decision will be taken 10 minutes before closing time
not risking on FEYE, not lined up enough for me
  • #9,713
  • Jul 30, 2015 4:58pm Jul 30, 2015 4:58pm
Quoting StrayDog
With /ES @ 2096 -> sold another call spread... /ES Sep 2140/2170 for $9.00 CR Add-ons: 1) Closed that for $8.00 db for fun. No PDT rules here folks. Beautiful. 2) Forgot to say, that right at the open, when we had that lil' spike, I had some orders for short... SPX CFDs on 2105... price went to 214.90 2104.90 and fell 10 points. 3) But, I got a fill on /NQ weekly bear spread 4520/4510 for $1.60 debit. Hoping to see /NQ sell-of tomorrow, and visiting 4500 area. Made some $ on DAX short also... I am all over the place today.
Good sweet spots on those verts ... . Basically got my index mechanical trades (short call verts and iron condors) queued up from here to 45 DTE on that last bit of volatility we had before it quickly ebbed away yesterday and today. Probably even put on a couple when IVR was <35, but I couldn't resist the bounce here ... .

Back in waiting mode for volatility to return ... . We could see a little bit of it tomorrow (locking in gains for end-of-month and such), especially since we've seen this little bounce here ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,714
  • Jul 31, 2015 12:06am Jul 31, 2015 12:06am
Monthly SPY - six years a slave to the punchbowl - check the volume, though, blood more popular than punch. I wonder what the wonks will say about this spell 30 years from now...?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,715
  • Jul 31, 2015 1:30am Jul 31, 2015 1:30am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} 3.3% eh? Well, it was nice knowing you....look after yourself
a GDP miss but the deflator was up, maybe the Fed will notice - big full moon (a blue moon?) and the last day of July: if Friday SPY closes green, August will close green....and vice versa.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,716
  • Jul 31, 2015 2:09am Jul 31, 2015 2:09am
NOW they tell me

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ain?cmpid=yhoo
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,717
  • Jul 31, 2015 7:50am Jul 31, 2015 7:50am
Off-topic:

I didn't notice market reaction to the Employment Cost Index q/q, before... but now a nice spike up.
Wish I shorted EUR for the quickie , but the mofo didn't quite get to the sweet spot...

240m chart... didn't got to the line, 200sma touched.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR-7-31.PNG Size: 156 KB


Me like quickies... I mean quick 20-30 pips.

------------------------------------------

So, USD down -> SPX and NQ got a boner, DAX standing still, not giving a shit that EUR is +1.14%
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,718
  • Edited 8:08am Jul 31, 2015 7:53am | Edited 8:08am
Hello everyone,
Great to see discussions on options here. I'd like to ask how to deal with a problem with an OTC Options broker I have an account with. About half a year ago I opened an account with Ikon Finance, which offers vanilla options on currency majors. In an email correspondence they agreed to let me have 6 pips spreads on the first 3 months to expiration on AUDUSD options and 8 pips on options between three to six months. Above six months options quotes are given via a Request For Quote through a dealer and I was told spreads would normally be 6 or close it it for them too. Meantime the liquidation on my account value has been increasing - first doubled itself and currently almost as much as three times the original deposit.

But Ikon suddenly disabled automatic trading on my account so that now each and every trade must be executed through manual pricing by a dealer. The dealers usually give me spreads as high as 20-37 pips doesn't matter which expiration or strike. (my friend has an account with Saxo Bank and in comparison he gets quotes with 6-7 pips on the same options I want to close).

So it seems it's just one way street there. You can either loose your money or otherwise will not able to close your positions on normal spreads to retain your profit. What would you suggest to do? Any idea would be appreciated.
  • #9,719
  • Jul 31, 2015 8:03am Jul 31, 2015 8:03am
Quoting StrayDog
Off-topic: I didn't notice market reaction to the Employment Cost Index q/q, before...
Well shit...

from Bloomberg:
Quarterly Increase in U.S. Worker Pay Smallest on Record

Fed officials are “still looking at a lot of slack remaining in the job market,” Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James Financial Inc. in St. Petersburg, Florida, said before the report. “If the numbers sort of fall back a bit, that might push the Fed toward a later rate increase than September.”
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,720
  • Jul 31, 2015 8:09am Jul 31, 2015 8:09am
Quoting Buber
... So it seems it's just one way street there. You can either loose your money or otherwise will not able to close your positions on normal spreads to retain your profit. What would you suggest to do? Any idea would be appreciated. {image}
Hi Buber. On this thread we trade equities and futures options, occasionally something else, FX, stocks...

But, whatever the instrument is, if you feel that way, that this is a one way street -> change the broker. I have never heard about this broker. Some of my friends have accounts with Saxo, I don't like them, high comms, but better than your current broker.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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