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Let's Trade Options

  • #9,681
  • Jul 29, 2015 1:31pm Jul 29, 2015 1:31pm
Hm... 225 of the exact same spreads that I hold traded today.
/ES Sep 2130/2160... 225 x $9.75
Buyers or sellers?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,682
  • Jul 29, 2015 1:44pm Jul 29, 2015 1:44pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Welcome back BW. I have read all posts in this thread before my first here. You used to be active here.
Hi there Stray, and thanks.
Yes, I used to be active around here; it's been a while and it's been a tough slog for me but I would hope that I'm a far better trader now than I was back then.

You doing futures options I see. That's pretty cool; that's what I trade myself. How's it going for you?
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #9,683
  • Jul 29, 2015 2:13pm Jul 29, 2015 2:13pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Hi there Stray, and thanks. Yes, I used to be active around here; it's been a while and it's been a tough slog for me but I would hope that I'm a far better trader now than I was back then. You doing futures options I see. That's pretty cool; that's what I trade myself. How's it going for you?
Had some winners trading /ES futures options, spreads there.
Also traded some naked sells on /CL options, since the margin req is low. Can be scary though, I lack experience.
I prefer them over equity options, explained that in some post a few days ago. But it is only a handful of trades with futures options so far.

I am trying to make a combination of scalping indices trough CFDs or futures, with some option credit plays. Would like to do gamma scalps with buying weeklies also, and there the working hours of futures options comes in handy.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,684
  • Jul 29, 2015 2:37pm Jul 29, 2015 2:37pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Had some winners trading /ES futures options, spreads there. Also traded some naked sells on /CL options, since the margin req is low. Can be scary though, I lack experience. I prefer them over equity options, explained that in some post a few days ago. But it is only a handful of trades with futures options so far. I am trying to make a combination of scalping indices trough CFDs or futures, with some option credit plays. Would like to do gamma scalps with buying...
Yes, the trouble with futures options is that you can make so much money off them but of course that cuts both ways.
I got into some really bad scrapes selling naked futures options; when it goes wrong and you have no plan, and no money or position management, it's very, very unpleasant.
There was a guy who used to trade on here who did the same as me, but in much bigger size. One day he just disappeared; it was after natgas had gone ballistic - from around $2 to $7 or something. He was selling the calls naked I think. To this day I think he blew up. I myself nearly blew up on the same trade but he was selling serious size. I hope he was okay but I never saw him again.

For the weeklies I prefer to sell em and cover myself with longer duration, maybe two months out.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #9,685
  • Jul 29, 2015 2:59pm Jul 29, 2015 2:59pm
ES up 0.7% at 2102 but AAPL down 0.5% at 122.82, IBB down 1.2%, and the NYSE Composite trading to just underneath its 200DMA. Something about that suggests to me we might see weakness into teh end of the week but I'm probably wrong.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #9,686
  • Jul 29, 2015 3:02pm Jul 29, 2015 3:02pm
FB getting caned on ER, anybody got any positions in it?
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #9,687
  • Jul 29, 2015 5:29pm Jul 29, 2015 5:29pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I will be quite vexed if JY lets another dovish FOMC run up yet another V-bottom index attack on new all-time highs. Those wankers should have started hiking years ago. Housing?....give me a break....first house I ever bought I paid >10% on the mortgage plus I had to put down 25% and in that year (1986) there were prolly twice as many housing starts as what we see nowadays.
Ah, those were the days ... . I can recall getting actually reasonable rates by today's standards on CD's ... . Can't remember the exact rate, but I think it was something on the order of 7% ... . And there was none of this 110% LTV nonsense for mortgages ... . If you didn't have 20% to put down, there was no point in even thinking about applying for a mortgage ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,688
  • Jul 29, 2015 5:53pm Jul 29, 2015 5:53pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
FB getting caned on ER, anybody got any positions in it?
Thought about it, but thought I'd devote my BP to index trades in light of FOMC ... . 20-20 hindsight says it would have been better to wait until after FOMC, but, hey, you never know ... .

Now I'm just hand-sitting on what I've got on, waiting for markets to fully digest the FOMC's bloated carcass and for volatility to return ... . Think I got enough to keep me entertained for a bit ... .

The only remaining earnings play I would consider for this week would be XOM; looked at a 79/87 short strangle, Aug 14 expiration, for a .60 cr. Not enough juice for me to bother with ... . Next week is PCLN and TSLA ... .

Given PCLN's price, it's probably for the exceptionally brave, but I would consider going an extremely wide iron condor, like an Aug 14 1030/1060/1390/1420, 82% POP, for a 4.15 cr/contract and pull it off at 50% max profit. Unfortunately, that setup would occupy $2,500+ of BP ... .

TSLA doesn't scare me as much, but I'd probably also go wider than usual on that one, too: an Aug 14 205/220/310/325 will garnish you a 1.61 cr/contract, 83% POP with a more modest BPE of $1,300 or so.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,689
  • Jul 29, 2015 5:56pm Jul 29, 2015 5:56pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Thought about it, but thought I'd devote my BP to index trades in light of FOMC ... . 20-20 hindsight says it would have been better to wait until after FOMC, but, hey, you never know ... . Now I'm just hand-sitting on what I've got on, waiting for markets to fully digest the FOMC's bloated carcass and for volatility to return ... . Think I got enough to keep me entertained for a bit ... . The only remaining earnings play I would consider for this week would be XOM; looked at a 79/87 short strangle, Aug 14 expiration, for a .60 cr. Not enough...
that's the one I have too PCLN
  • #9,690
  • Jul 29, 2015 5:58pm Jul 29, 2015 5:58pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
ES up 0.7% at 2102 but AAPL down 0.5% at 122.82, IBB down 1.2%, and the NYSE Composite trading to just underneath its 200DMA. Something about that suggests to me we might see weakness into teh end of the week but I'm probably wrong.
Never know ... . Markets got a bit of boner on for Janet, who now claims to be only looking for "some improvement" in the labor market before pulling the trigger ... . I've kind of ceased trying to call direction ... . There's a lot of "irrational exuberance" about ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,691
  • Jul 29, 2015 6:02pm Jul 29, 2015 6:02pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} that's the one I have too PCLN
You have bigger 'nads than I ... . I think TSLA's going to get most of the attention, though, not that that means anything ... . It's just so ... sexy.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,692
  • Jul 29, 2015 6:06pm Jul 29, 2015 6:06pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} You have bigger 'nads than I ... . I think TSLA's going to get most of the attention, though, not that that means anything ... . It's just so ... sexy.
pcln will be more of a longer term but that will depend on cost and how much of a risk I'm prepared to take with it, its a ball breaker
  • #9,693
  • Jul 29, 2015 6:09pm Jul 29, 2015 6:09pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I'm holding out, was over $3.70 at one stage Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) -NYSE 31.83 4.71(12.88%) 15:50 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
still with it, hoping the FB will take the twitter trade to close to $30 where I will cash out
  • #9,694
  • Jul 29, 2015 6:16pm Jul 29, 2015 6:16pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} pcln will be more of a longer term but that will depend on cost and how much of a risk I'm prepared to take with it, its a ball breaker
They should do a split ... . The price is ridiculous ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,695
  • Jul 29, 2015 8:49pm Jul 29, 2015 8:49pm
I survived the long drive to the OR coast. Got in my room & a look at the SPY chart told the tale re: the FOMC. I'm not bothering to read the press, JY offered nothing new really, nothing juicy for the bears, anyway. Are we still seeing some crummy earnings? FB getting beat, I see. Maybe the aftermath of a mediocre ER season will turn the tide. Meanwhile I'm standing like Gandalf (you...shall...not...pass!) in the path of a V-Bottom mofo rally.....for now....maybe the GDP will kickass and scare the bulls...I am just sitting on SPY $214, $215 short legs, that's a long time.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,696
  • Jul 29, 2015 8:55pm Jul 29, 2015 8:55pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
FB getting caned on ER, anybody got any positions in it?
good to see you back, BW, misery loves company. Nah, I jest.....things are going ok......I'm just tired of the CB's, trying to remember a time when they didn't run the markets.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,697
  • Edited 10:58pm Jul 29, 2015 8:58pm | Edited 10:58pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} still with it, hoping the FB will take the twitter trade to close to $30 where I will cash out
pulling 4u CG, looks like a dip below $31 will put you in decent profit tomorrow....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,698
  • Jul 30, 2015 12:23am Jul 30, 2015 12:23am
I filled a VXX bull call vert, Friday $17/$17.5 ...for 5c, small trade needs a credit of 10c or so just to beat the comms, not looking good. But I see the USD spiked a bit on the FOMC - a temporary divergence from US equities? - we'll see in the days to close July.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,699
  • Jul 30, 2015 4:21am Jul 30, 2015 4:21am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Never know ... . Markets got a bit of boner on for Janet, who now claims to be only looking for "some improvement" in the labor market before pulling the trigger ... . I've kind of ceased trying to call direction ... . There's a lot of "irrational exuberance" about ... .
Market looks heavy to me. Time was you for most of teh last however many years you couldn't sell naked calls and make money, and selling naked puts was a no-brainer (in hindsight (to me anyway), obviously...). Now you can make money selling naked calls as long as it's on one of these many pops of say 50+ SPX points. You might have to roll once or twice but that's it. I've got a possible upside target on SPX at around 2135 and I reckon that could be it, although the market got pretty much within a whisker of it anyway so may consider the objective fulfilled.
There is no juice to push this market higher IMO. To me it's in a state of equilibrium (and probably distribution), and if the Fed starts to hike it won't take much to push it gently down the slope, unless we see a commensurate fall in the dollar and/or in 10 and 30 yields.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #9,700
  • Jul 30, 2015 4:24am Jul 30, 2015 4:24am
Quoting The Fool
I survived the long drive to the OR coast. Got in my room & a look at the SPY chart told the tale re: the FOMC. I'm not bothering to read the press, JY offered nothing new really, nothing juicy for the bears, anyway. Are we still seeing some crummy earnings? FB getting beat, I see. Maybe the aftermath of a mediocre ER season will turn the tide. Meanwhile I'm standing like Gandalf (you...shall...not...pass!) in the path of a V-Bottom mofo rally.....for now....maybe the GDP will kickass and scare the bulls...I am just sitting on SPY $214, $215 short...
Don't think you should be concerned about them. I'm sitting on a naked ES put call 2080, having closed an underlying long and short put, happy to hold and roll it, but not to add in the unlikely event we go higher. If we get a dip I'll probably sell put against it, maybe 2150/60/whatever.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
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