Markets & price are very efficient - makes it easier to profit? | Forex Factory

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Markets & price are very efficient - makes it easier to profit?

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 29, 2015 1:20pm Jul 29, 2015 1:20pm
Nothing new here: efficient, recurrent, ranging, noise, basing, bouncing, etc.

Markets / price often looks like complete noise / mess most of the time, especially on naked charts with no points of reference.....but can you see profit?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TZ.jpg Size: 119 KB
  • #2
  • Jul 29, 2015 1:28pm Jul 29, 2015 1:28pm
Hey Sun, glad to see you're sharing you're trading concepts. I must say the concept as it is is very difficult to trade but it serve as a good start to building a great strategy. Market is not 100% efficient. Thats why we can make easy profit. Efficiency is what makes profit difficult. Good luck with the thread. Subscribed
  • #3
  • Jul 29, 2015 1:52pm Jul 29, 2015 1:52pm
Quoting ephisi
Hey Sun, glad to see you're sharing you're trading concepts. I must say the concept as it is is very difficult to trade but it serve as a good start to building a great strategy. Market is not 100% efficient. Thats why we can make easy profit. Efficiency is what makes profit difficult. Good luck with the thread. Subscribed
I tend to think the highly efficient market / recurrent market is what helps us to see profit.
  • #4
  • Jul 29, 2015 1:56pm Jul 29, 2015 1:56pm
Quoting SunSaltwater
{quote} I tend to think the highly efficient market / recurrent market is what helps us to see profit.
what do you mean by efficient markets ?
  • #5
  • Jul 29, 2015 1:58pm Jul 29, 2015 1:58pm
Quoting SunSaltwater
{quote} I tend to think the highly efficient market / recurrent market is what helps us to see profit.
I don't think efficient=recurrent. Actually, if you would know that the market is often recurrent, and would believe that the market is efficient, you would be better off not telling about recurrence to anybody. The reason is that the efficient market will soon adapt to this new piece of information in such a way that it will become useless.

k
  • #6
  • Edited 2:39pm Jul 29, 2015 2:12pm | Edited 2:39pm
E/U, interesting area of profit on 1 hour right now.

Update: In-efficient / TZ area is closing.
  • #7
  • Jul 29, 2015 2:42pm Jul 29, 2015 2:42pm
Quoting metta87
{quote} what do you mean by efficient markets ?
Again, zero of these ideas are my own.

I see a strong correlation between efficient and recurrent. Meaning, markets and price do not like areas that have not been cleared, visited again, traded thinly, unbalanced, etc.

So when I see in-efficient / transient areas on a chart I look at this as a potential area to profit from as the market becomes efficient / recurrent in these areas.

Maybe I am just nuts
  • #8
  • Jul 29, 2015 3:14pm Jul 29, 2015 3:14pm
Quoting SunSaltwater
{quote} Again, zero of these ideas are my own. I see a strong correlation between efficient and recurrent. Meaning, markets and price do not like areas that have not been cleared, visited again, traded thinly, unbalanced, etc. So when I see in-efficient / transient areas on a chart I look at this as a potential area to profit from as the market becomes efficient / recurrent in these areas. Maybe I am just nuts ...
No youre nut nuts but be ready to hold a 200 to 300 pip drawdown before you hit you targets. As I said this is very difficult to trade and I advise you take kprsas advice. The market will soon adjust and make this effect insignificant. Better you study it. Test it and build your personal your edge queitly
  • #9
  • Jul 29, 2015 3:17pm Jul 29, 2015 3:17pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} No youre nut nuts but be ready to hold a 200 to 300 pip drawdown before you hit you targets. As I said this is very difficult to trade and I advise you take kprsas advice. The market will soon adjust and make this effect insignificant. Better you study it. Test it and build your personal your edge queitly
No way I will ever hold through a 200 - 300 pip drawdown. Stops are important as in any trading system.
  • #10
  • Jul 29, 2015 3:21pm Jul 29, 2015 3:21pm
Quoting SunSaltwater
{quote} No way I will ever hold through a 200 - 300 pip drawdown. Stops are important as in any trading system.
ok. Just do alot of testing
  • #11
  • Jul 29, 2015 3:28pm Jul 29, 2015 3:28pm
Quoting SunSaltwater
E/U, interesting area of profit on 1 hour right now. Update: In-efficient / TZ area is closing.
Price just hates that space above.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TZ EU.jpg Size: 130 KB
  • #12
  • Edited 8:43pm Jul 29, 2015 3:34pm | Edited 8:43pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} ok. Just do alot of testing
Many have tried to trade the transient/reccurrent concept. Most have failed. Its like the more you look the less you see. Just when you think you have cracked it, it shows you a different behavior. But I'm one of the few who have cracked it.Thats why I can boldly tell you the concepts you sharing is difficult to trade and is just scratching the surface of TZ/RZ concept. My advice is to keep studying and testing until you get the whole picture and can spot when market becomes inefficient and profitable with good risk reward ratio. Thats your profit window. Once that window closes the market becomes efficient. And random again
  • #13
  • Jul 29, 2015 4:24pm Jul 29, 2015 4:24pm
Quoting SunSaltwater
{quote} Price just hates that space above. {image}
1.1032 is still open. And if you had gone long on the open of the next candle. 1.1008 that trade would currently be nursing a drawdown. So lets see how much drawdown we would get before 1.1032 is revisited
  • #14
  • Jul 29, 2015 6:11pm Jul 29, 2015 6:11pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} 1.1032 is still open. And if you had gone long on the open of the next candle. 1.1008 that trade would currently be nursing a drawdown. So lets see how much drawdown we would get before 1.1032 is revisited
I could be wrong here, but I think he means price will revisit the 1.0999 level before it does anything else. Correct me if I'm wrong Sun.
  • #15
  • Jul 29, 2015 7:51pm Jul 29, 2015 7:51pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} 1.1032 is still open. And if you had gone long on the open of the next candle. 1.1008 that trade would currently be nursing a drawdown. So lets see how much drawdown we would get before 1.1032 is revisited
Let's
  • #16
  • Jul 29, 2015 7:52pm Jul 29, 2015 7:52pm
Quoting TheDirtySerb
{quote} I could be wrong here, but I think he means price will revisit the 1.0999 level before it does anything else. Correct me if I'm wrong Sun.
Before it does anything else? Price can do anything, heck news could come out and doesn't see 1.0999 for 20 years
  • #17
  • Jul 29, 2015 8:02pm Jul 29, 2015 8:02pm
Quoting SunSaltwater
{quote} Before it does anything else? Price can do anything, heck news could come out and doesn't see 1.0999 for 20 years
Yes I know this. I was under the impression that you were thinking price would bounce to 1.0999. My bad. Trade well.
  • #18
  • Jul 29, 2015 8:04pm Jul 29, 2015 8:04pm
Quoting TheDirtySerb
{quote} Yes I know this. I was under the impression that you were thinking price would bounce to 1.0999. My bad. Trade well.
Yes, 1.0999 is where price moves from transient to recurrent, in my eyes from inefficient to efficient.
  • #19
  • Jul 29, 2015 8:41pm Jul 29, 2015 8:41pm
Quoting TheDirtySerb
{quote} I could be wrong here, but I think he means price will revisit the 1.0999 level before it does anything else. Correct me if I'm wrong Sun.
Yes youre right. I was just adding that 1.1033 also needs to be revisited. I just checked 5hrs later 1.0999 has not been filled. Still more drawdown. They may not be filled in the next 24 to 48hrs. So the question is how do you trade this without risking 100pjps just to make 33pips. Dosnt make sense. What if eurusd starts to trend. 1.0999 may not be revisited in 2months.
  • #20
  • Jul 29, 2015 9:12pm Jul 29, 2015 9:12pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} Yes youre right. I was just adding that 1.1033 also needs to be revisited. I just checked 5hrs later 1.0999 has not been filled. Still more drawdown. They may not be filled in the next 24 to 48hrs. So the question is how do you trade this without risking 100pjps just to make 33pips. Dosnt make sense. What if eurusd starts to trend. 1.0999 may not be revisited in 2months.
100% agreed, do not risk 100 pips to make 33 pips. Also, it could start trending and not be visited for years never mind 24 - 48 hours

Lets watch these play out as I post them and see if YOU can make profit.
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