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  • #9,661
  • Jul 28, 2015 3:38pm Jul 28, 2015 3:38pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
If they were smart, they sold a bunch of ARM paper during the ZIRP and are looking to cash in going forward ... .
Haha, sure they did. My family got them super cheap, but now already paid and flat on mortgages. I just gotta convince rest of my friends to fix rates as well . Generally saying housing market received quite heavy cash since crisis (crooked accounting = collateral also cash), so people were buying and they have a cushion. Ofc they do, as always.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,662
  • Jul 28, 2015 5:13pm Jul 28, 2015 5:13pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} ok, managed to buy the strangle on TWTR for $38 call at 1.64 plus the $35 put for 1.66 had some waiting to do Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) -NYSE 36.47 1.77(5.10%) 3:38PM BST - Nasdaq Real Time Price
a big swing in after hours trading

Twitter, Inc. (TWTR)
-NYSE
36.54 1.84(5.30%) 21:00
|After Hours: : 33.50 3.04 (8.32%) 23:11 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #9,663
  • Jul 28, 2015 5:25pm Jul 28, 2015 5:25pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} a big swing in after hours trading Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) -NYSE 36.54 1.84(5.30%) 21:00 |After Hours: : 33.50 3.04 (8.32%) 23:11 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
hope you come out well after the crush.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,664
  • Jul 28, 2015 5:28pm Jul 28, 2015 5:28pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} hope you come out well after the crush.....
well its at 32.74 now so at that level I'm $2.26 in the money plus whatever time value there will be left, we shall see tomorrow and the volume really spiked after hours
  • #9,665
  • Jul 28, 2015 5:40pm Jul 28, 2015 5:40pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} well its at 32.74 now so at that level I'm $2.26 in the money plus whatever time value there will be left, we shall see tomorrow and the volume really spiked after hours

After Hours: : 32.03 4.51 (12.34%) 6:39PM BST - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #9,666
  • Jul 28, 2015 7:00pm Jul 28, 2015 7:00pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} well its at 32.74 now so at that level I'm $2.26 in the money plus whatever time value there will be left, we shall see tomorrow and the volume really spiked after hours
yep, good luck, you have to suffer the iv crash on these ER plays, so the options values crash, too, but if you get deep enough itm you will do ok.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,667
  • Jul 28, 2015 10:17pm Jul 28, 2015 10:17pm
a month ago we saw a 2-day, $3 spike on VXX. Could the Fed make it happen tomorrow? The vlow risk VXX vertical shown below needs about a $1 move up to b/e...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-07-28_vxx3.png Size: 54 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,668
  • Jul 28, 2015 10:28pm Jul 28, 2015 10:28pm
pay a little more to increase your odds
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-07-28_vxx6.png Size: 54 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,669
  • Jul 28, 2015 11:00pm Jul 28, 2015 11:00pm
Quoting The Fool
a month ago we saw a 2-day, $3 spike on VXX. Could the Fed make it happen tomorrow? The vlow risk VXX vertical shown below needs about a $1 move up to b/e... {image}
Fingers crossed on a VIX spike ... . Jumped a bit early on one UVXY position it would be nice to see the back of, even if it's just for a .25 db ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,670
  • Jul 29, 2015 7:07am Jul 29, 2015 7:07am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
And this kind of thing is just plain ass crap: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/28/fed-r...g-analyst.html We're not talking about a 100 bps rate hike or a 200 bps rate hike ... . We're talking about a 25 bps rate hike ... . Per quarter ... . At most ... . There will be an effect, yes, but there will be no "crushing".
I agree and furthermore to the best of my knowledge mortgage rates in the US are priced off the 30-year bond. The near-term effect of a rise in the target FF rate on the long bond is unclear but is in any case likely to be minimal at least for the first few raises. Of course Greenspan alluded to this himself back in the day.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #9,671
  • Jul 29, 2015 9:51am Jul 29, 2015 9:51am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} ok, managed to buy the strangle on TWTR for $38 call at 1.64 plus the $35 put for 1.66 had some waiting to do Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) -NYSE 36.47 1.77(5.10%) 3:38PM BST - Nasdaq Real Time Price
I'm holding out, was over $3.70 at one stage

Twitter, Inc. (TWTR)
-NYSE
31.83 4.71(12.88%) 15:50 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #9,672
  • Jul 29, 2015 10:22am Jul 29, 2015 10:22am
Quoting Cecil Gee
I'll be watching the US housing market numbers as the hombuilders index ETF looks another long term play that could yield good profits on a strangle strategy providing the uption price and spreads are not too far apart
housing numbers not too good, may hold of the FED decision again
  • #9,673
  • Jul 29, 2015 11:43am Jul 29, 2015 11:43am
Quoting Cecil Gee
I'm holding out, was over $3.70 at one stage Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) -NYSE 31.83 4.71(12.88%) 15:50 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
THE trick with ER long strangles is you got to get in your long legs before the iv ramps up on the options, and that could mean getting in even a couple weeks before the ER. So if you get in that early, and the u/l moves a lot, you might be able to close with decent profit before the ER. Or you hold on and look for a big ER move to put one leg well itm. If you get in just before the ER, you pay the highest price, and you need the biggest move to get to b/e or better.

The short strangle or IC is the trade to do just before the ER, to take advantage of the iv rush...if you are brave...most of us here have had our bum scorched by the latter trades....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,674
  • Jul 29, 2015 11:48am Jul 29, 2015 11:48am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} THE trick with ER long strangles is you got to get in your long legs before the iv ramps up on the options, and that could mean getting in even a couple weeks before the ER. So if you get in that early, and the u/l moves a lot, you might be able to close with decent profit before the ER. Or you hold on and look for a big ER move to put one leg well itm. If you get in just before the ER, you pay the highest price, and you need the biggest move to get to b/e or better. The short strangle or IC is the trade to do just before the ER, to take...
its the outliers I look for, I wouldn't touch earnings plays unless I have a better than average possibility of an outcome in my favour. Something I had seen a while ago
  • #9,675
  • Jul 29, 2015 11:51am Jul 29, 2015 11:51am
Quoting Cecil Gee
housing numbers not too good, may hold of the FED decision again
I will be quite vexed if JY lets another dovish FOMC run up yet another V-bottom index attack on new all-time highs. Those wankers should have started hiking years ago. Housing?....give me a break....first house I ever bought I paid >10% on the mortgage plus I had to put down 25% and in that year (1986) there were prolly twice as many housing starts as what we see nowadays.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,676
  • Jul 29, 2015 12:08pm Jul 29, 2015 12:08pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I will be quite vexed if JY lets another dovish FOMC run up yet another V-bottom index attack on new all-time highs. Those wankers should have started hiking years ago. Housing?....give me a break....first house I ever bought I paid >10% on the mortgage plus I had to put down 25% and in that year (1986) there were prolly twice as many housing starts as what we see nowadays.
she's becoming untrustworthy, all charts indicate lower but the more consolidation takes place the less likely my view holds
  • #9,677
  • Jul 29, 2015 12:39pm Jul 29, 2015 12:39pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I will be quite vexed if JY lets another dovish FOMC run up yet another V-bottom index attack on new all-time highs.
Woodchipper time. I'm sorry I posted a bunch of bearish nonsense. The Yellen Fed will never raise rates and the SnP is headed for 2,200 in August. I feel like a fool. Oh, wait.....

SDog, it's been nice knowing you. I just need somebody to shove the last piece of me into the hopper. Anyway, I am hitting the road and will not be able to whine here anymore today. Best of luck to all of us.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,678
  • Jul 29, 2015 12:45pm Jul 29, 2015 12:45pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Woodchipper time. I'm sorry I posted a bunch of bearish nonsense. The Yellen Fed will never raise rates and the SnP is headed for 2,200 in August. I feel like a fool. Oh, wait..... SDog, it's been nice knowing you. I just need somebody to shove the last piece of me into the hopper. Anyway, I am hitting the road and will not be able to whine here anymore today. Best of luck to all of us.
Wassup TF...are things that bad?
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #9,679
  • Jul 29, 2015 12:58pm Jul 29, 2015 12:58pm
Quoting The Fool
..... SDog, it's been nice knowing you. I just need somebody to shove the last piece of me into the hopper. Anyway, I am hitting the road and will not be able to whine here anymore today. Best of luck to all of us.


We will find out soon enough if the punchbowl is half full or full to the lid.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,680
  • Jul 29, 2015 1:30pm Jul 29, 2015 1:30pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Wassup TF...are things that bad?
Welcome back BW. I have read all posts in this thread before my first here. You used to be active here.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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