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  • #9,641
  • Jul 28, 2015 11:45am Jul 28, 2015 11:45am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Did get a UVXY short put vert filled (Aug 14 22.5/25.5) for 1.10 on this dip along with an SVXY short call vert (Aug 21 96.5/99.5) for .94; what the hell, play both sides of the coin ... ..
good job on the ER trades

I am waiting til after FOMC for any super bear sets or maybe quick entries for bull vol, the latter not likely though because I will be traveling during the FOMC release....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,642
  • Jul 28, 2015 11:48am Jul 28, 2015 11:48am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Yep, trying to fill another block, Sept5 $215/$218 for 76c
all the SPY bear call verts I wanted, filled....$214 and $215 short legs. Need the hawk to fly tomorrow....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,643
  • Jul 28, 2015 12:01pm Jul 28, 2015 12:01pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} all the SPY bear call verts I wanted, filled....$214 and $215 short legs. Need the hawk to fly tomorrow....
Got my last fill ... . And my work here is done ... . Added another SVXY short call vert to hedge any more BTFD nonsense ... . My total portfolio delta is whack, but what can ya do ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,644
  • Jul 28, 2015 12:05pm Jul 28, 2015 12:05pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
My total portfolio delta is whack, but what can ya do ... .
I am putting super bear on watch - if there is a steep slide in the indices post FOMC, I want to put the bear call premium to work. Good luck to us.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,645
  • Jul 28, 2015 12:22pm Jul 28, 2015 12:22pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
TWTR has same potential for a good move after market closes, towards the end of trading session might take a strangle 4 strikes away if the math is correct
looking for the TWTR strangle 2 strikes only now, 38/34 if I can get for 1.60-1.80 just working out the potential it has when the earning are released after market closes
  • #9,646
  • Jul 28, 2015 12:24pm Jul 28, 2015 12:24pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I am putting super bear on watch - if there is a steep slide in the indices post FOMC, I want to put the bear call premium to work. Good luck to us.
look to long term strangle over 12 months, possibly leaps that's what I'm in the process of doing while selling monthlies to reduce overall costs
  • #9,647
  • Jul 28, 2015 12:29pm Jul 28, 2015 12:29pm
MA- mastercard for tomorrows earning I'm passing cus Facebook earnings is looking at the minutes as a outlier move so will concentrate on that instead
  • #9,648
  • Jul 28, 2015 12:34pm Jul 28, 2015 12:34pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I am putting super bear on watch - if there is a steep slide in the indices post FOMC, I want to put the bear call premium to work. Good luck to us.
The preemptive FED move is already completed in the ES (sell the rumour buy the news). Markets are aligned for a timid/neutral FED for the momentum leg down later before September (prolly x the next NFP/inflation combo).FED will need to be extremely hawkish to let the bastsrds roll down in a clean sweep ... Without details until tomorrow board is set for a measured dollar move first (is the only one still holding the rates move) and a relatively quite moves on the rest....GLsisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #9,649
  • Jul 28, 2015 12:38pm Jul 28, 2015 12:38pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} looking for the TWTR strangle 2 strikes only now, 38/34 if I can get for 1.60-1.80 just working out the potential it has when the earning are released after market closes
ok, managed to buy the strangle on TWTR for $38 call at 1.64 plus the $35 put for 1.66 had some waiting to do


Twitter, Inc. (TWTR)
-NYSE
36.47 1.77(5.10%) 3:38PM BST - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #9,650
  • Jul 28, 2015 12:42pm Jul 28, 2015 12:42pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} ok, managed to buy the strangle on TWTR for $38 call at 1.64 plus the $35 put for 1.66 had some waiting to do Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) -NYSE 36.47 1.77(5.10%) 3:38PM BST - Nasdaq Real Time Price
Thought about doing a few more earnings plays this week, but wanted to load up on indices with this high volatility (which is now evaporating a bit).

Good luck with TWTR ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,651
  • Jul 28, 2015 12:48pm Jul 28, 2015 12:48pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Thought about doing a few more earnings plays this week, but wanted to load up on indices with this high volatility (which is now evaporating a bit). Good luck with TWTR ... .
those indices I'm building out for a long term play out, buy a longer term OTM whilst selling shorter terms for reduction costs as there is no clear policy directive from the FED
  • #9,652
  • Jul 28, 2015 12:49pm Jul 28, 2015 12:49pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} The preemptive FED move is already completed in the ES (sell the rumour buy the news). Markets are aligned for a timid/neutral FED for the momentum leg down later before September (prolly x the next NFP/inflation combo).FED will need to be extremely hawkish to let the bastsrds roll down in a clean sweep ... Without details until tomorrow board is set for a measured dollar move first (is the only one still holding the rates move) and a relatively quite moves on the rest....GLsisse
Yeah thanks, sisse - I put those bear SPY spreads out at Sept5, the quarterly expiry....10 days past the Sept FOMC...at some point, though, all the rate hike noise will be baked in
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,653
  • Jul 28, 2015 12:52pm Jul 28, 2015 12:52pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} ok, managed to buy the strangle on TWTR for $38 call at 1.64 plus the $35 put for 1.66 had some waiting to do
Good Luck, Cecil. It looks like TWTR really shot its wad on the last ER, but we'll see....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,654
  • Jul 28, 2015 12:52pm Jul 28, 2015 12:52pm
A good article on effect of interest rate hikes on markets from a historical perspective: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...arkets-economy

Unfortunately, the period of the QE + ZIRP we have had is unprecedented. Given the pace of the Fed to even move to a 25 bps increase, I imagine it's going to be a small hike, then a period of wait and see, another small hike, another period of wait and see ... . Getting to so-called "normalized" interest rates could and is likely to take years, and there may be various bumps along the way ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,655
  • Jul 28, 2015 12:55pm Jul 28, 2015 12:55pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Good Luck, Cecil. It looks like TWTR really shot its wad on the last ER, but we'll see....
thanks man, I'm looking for a surprised 4 strike out, don't think it will be like last time as because the options are relatively cheap just before the release so no one is expecting a huge move
  • #9,656
  • Jul 28, 2015 12:56pm Jul 28, 2015 12:56pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
A good article on effect of interest rate hikes on markets from a historical perspective: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...arkets-economy Unfortunately, the period of the QE + ZIRP we have had is unprecedented. Given the pace of the Fed to even move to a 25 bps increase, I imagine it's going to be a small hike, then a period of wait and see, another small hike, another period of wait and see ... . Getting to so-called "normalized" interest rates could and is likely to take years, and there may...
Moreover, as long as Janet continues injecting extrinsic factors into the rate hike equation (equities markets, global market conditions, the color of the sunrise ... ; used to be that the inflation rate was virtually the only concern), she will be on pins and needles as to any way the wind blows ... . Very few Fed chairfolk have ever gotten interest rates right ... . She wouldn't be the first ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,657
  • Jul 28, 2015 1:07pm Jul 28, 2015 1:07pm
And this kind of thing is just plain ass crap: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/28/fed-r...g-analyst.html

We're not talking about a 100 bps rate hike or a 200 bps rate hike ... . We're talking about a 25 bps rate hike ... . Per quarter ... . At most ... . There will be an effect, yes, but there will be no "crushing".
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,658
  • Jul 28, 2015 1:16pm Jul 28, 2015 1:16pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
And this kind of thing is just plain ass crap: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/28/fed-r...g-analyst.html We're not talking about a 100 bps rate hike or a 200 bps rate hike ... . We're talking about a 25 bps rate hike ... . Per quarter ... . At most ... . There will be an effect, yes, but there will be no "crushing".
Hi Zebra, I agree with you that "crush" is a wrong selection of words (I actually havent read the article), but suppose housing market is one of the core trouble issues of banking sector = bankers are gonna be whinning because of it. But let them whine, they got MBS purchases from FED. Is since 2008 subprime, where they started with twisting of accounting (those underwater loans are no longer marked to market price, but to price of purchase = pre 2008 crash) and followed by massive injections into banking sector. Injections had to start after disease from banking/subprime crisis moved to debt crisis, so they are acting like they support banks because of bonds, but actually still fixing holes in banks balance sheets from subprime. So, should market drop, they wont sell these underwater assets anyway, and will be using them as a colateral, which they are doing now, but they will be under heavier pressure of "clearing" these assets, as they sure want to get rid of them. FED purchases of MBS is prolly the best way for em .
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,659
  • Jul 28, 2015 1:30pm Jul 28, 2015 1:30pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Hi Zebra, I agree with you that "crush" is a wrong selection of words (I actually havent read the article), but suppose housing market is one of the core trouble issues of banking sector = bankers are gonna be whinning because of it. But let them whine, they got MBS purchases from FED. Is since 2008 subprime, where they started with twisting of accounting (those underwater loans are no longer marked to market price, but to price of purchase = pre 2008 crash) and followed by massive injections into banking sector. Injections had to start...
Poor little fellas, those mortgage companies ... . I'm sure they'll figure out a clever way to continue to bottom feed, regardless of market conditions ... . I gotta think that there's more than a few of them rubbing their hands together over an interest rate hike. If they were smart, they sold a bunch of ARM paper during the ZIRP and are looking to cash in going forward ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,660
  • Jul 28, 2015 1:35pm Jul 28, 2015 1:35pm
Aside from the obvious attraction I have to Katie's profile pic, I happen to like this particular trade:

Attached Image


Not sure I'd go as, ahem, "tight" as she does, but ... .

Another reminder to myself to get off my arse and get privileged for futures ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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