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vsa with Malcolm

  • #26,941
  • Jul 28, 2015 7:21am Jul 28, 2015 7:21am
Quoting pres78
EURAUD... Watch 5220-5230ish area... Key overhead level to watch 5331 (starting at 5300). We have entered a major previous supply zone today (price fell 1650 pips from here starting Dec 2014 ending at the April 2015 low). We took out a minor supply zone on Friday (as noted in a previous post the bulls pulled off a thing of beauty on Friday... check out a NY close 4 hour chart). I expect this zone may put up more of a fight and have noted the key 5330 level to watch for reactions. I am currently looking to long from somewhere in the 5220-5330 area...
Well there was certainly some supply in that supply zone we entered yesterday. No longs and no re-visit of the 2014 high (at least for now). When I wrote the above post I figured they would at least tag the 5300 level but price only made it to 5275. We now have a decent recent level put in at 5245ish (yesterday close / today open level) which will need to be watched if we get back up there. When you have prints like these with a decent up bar followed by a decent down bar (or the opposite) the shared close / open level up to (or down to) the highest (or lowest) wick gives a good resistance or support zone to watch and trade from.

Looking closer now at the daily chart for EURAUD yesterdays up bar was a complete and utter unsupported mark-up with the lowest volume seen this month.

Today's bar print and volume should give clues to future PA and direction for this pair.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDiDaily.png Size: 99 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,942
  • Edited 8:01am Jul 28, 2015 7:44am | Edited 8:01am
Here is a LO trade I took on EURAUD.

After the clear supply zone rejection we had overnight I wanted to see if London was going to continue the sell off.

London comes to the market and trades price back up to a previous supply zone. What is key about this supply zone is that took out a previous demand zone and gave us a clear LL.

When London boys marked price up on lowering volume back into the supply area it was clear they weren't interested in higher prices. I sold the low of that supply zone with SL above the high. As you can see we have lowering volume and divergences on both the MFI and the CMF. MFI stayed sub 50 in sell zone, CMF just peaked it's head above the 0 level. The 2 MA's stayed in the right order with yellow under white.

Not shown on the chart is yesterday's 1hr zone (I shrunk it down to the 15 min portion) but both of the LL's marked on the chart took out the 1hr zone low which just happens to be at the low of that marked demand zone. Yes we returned into the low of the zone but as it was on unsupported volume and into a key supply area shorting above the zone low was justified for me. As a note the safer entry I marked closed not only below the MA's but also below the 1 hr zone low.

Safer entry was the down bar which closed back below the MA's but I like to try and sell as high as I can and buy as low as I can.

Entry was 5260, SL 5275. Not sure on final TP but I am looking at that now and will lock in at BE or better. Back to work tomorrow so being able to trade and manage my trades this in detail will be gone. More higher TF stuff again.

Edit - This trade is counter trend to the higher TF bigger picture as one down bar does not make a downtrend nor tell us we have a trend change. Plan your trades accordingly and know what your trading and how it fits in the bigger picture so you can better plan TP's etc...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDiM15.png Size: 101 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,943
  • Jul 28, 2015 8:06am Jul 28, 2015 8:06am
Remember fed rate and speech tomorrow. Watch for increased volatility and expect the tone of their speech to give the market some direction based on their future plans for rates.

I am technical trader first and foremost but also recognize that the fundies gives the market it's fuel and govern it's overall direction and bias. While I agree than much of the news is "priced in" we need to recognize that what is priced in is what the market is expecting. What we as retailers need to be wary of is the non expected items like surprise rate hikes or cuts, banks intervening and the tones of any speeches dealing with future plans as they relate to rates or easing.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,944
  • Jul 28, 2015 8:26am Jul 28, 2015 8:26am
Looks like we are seeing a little support back at the July 24th 1hr zone and just above the July 10 supply zone which was taken out Friday / Monday. Thus far the daily volume is extremely low which makes this seem like a mark down but won't know for sure until the day closes.

Red lines are the July 10th Daily supply zone. Yellow lines are the daily flag zone made between Friday and Monday bars (the lowest yellow line would also be the high of a July 24th Daily bar hidden gap that might be traded by Hidden Gap). Blue rectangle is the Hidden Gap.

We saw a decrease in hourly volume as we entered the zone but then the last closed hourly bar (down bar) had a decent increase in volume. This current hourly bar will be interesting to see if there are any interested buyers here or not.

Hourly money flow is showing bears but 4hr and Daily still show bulls in control for now (however both are OB).

Should be interesting as always.

Don't mind me just thinking out loud. Too much time to look at charts the past 2 days . Plus the wife took the kids to the library so I am home alone. Talking to myself on here feels less weird than talking to myself out loud.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDiH1.png Size: 98 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,945
  • Jul 28, 2015 8:34am Jul 28, 2015 8:34am
Quoting pres78
Not sure on final TP but I am looking at that now and will lock in at BE or better.{image}
Closed out at 5100 for 4:1.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,946
  • Edited 10:55am Jul 28, 2015 9:09am | Edited 10:55am
EURAUD watch for a possible move back into 5150 region.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,947
  • Jul 28, 2015 11:21am Jul 28, 2015 11:21am
Quoting pres78
EURAUD watch for a possible move back into 5150 region.
Supply found on push up. Trend for the day continues.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,948
  • Jul 28, 2015 11:29am Jul 28, 2015 11:29am
Daily range already exceeded but with London boys gone and only NY left around I couldn't resist shorting this beauty 30 min ND (yes right at the days low I know but if they aren't buying then the trend won't end). Plus the sellers made a move up into 5115 over the few bars before the ND so I am hoping that is sufficient fuel for my trade.

See how this plays out. Hoping to snag 2 or 3 to 1 R:R.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDiM30.png Size: 90 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,949
  • Jul 28, 2015 3:04pm Jul 28, 2015 3:04pm
Quoting pres78
Daily range already exceeded but with London boys gone and only NY left around I couldn't resist shorting this beauty 30 min ND (yes right at the days low I know but if they aren't buying then the trend won't end). Plus the sellers made a move up into 5115 over the few bars before the ND so I am hoping that is sufficient fuel for my trade. See how this plays out. Hoping to snag 2 or 3 to 1 R:R. {image}
Hit 2:1 moved to BE, out at BE.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,950
  • Jul 28, 2015 3:29pm Jul 28, 2015 3:29pm
Very nice, did you enter your last trade M15 or M5 looking M30?. Regards
Quoting pres78
{quote} Hit 2:1 moved to BE, out at BE.
  • #26,951
  • Jul 28, 2015 3:32pm Jul 28, 2015 3:32pm
Quoting Miche09
Very nice, did you enter your last trade M15 or M5 looking M30?. Regards {quote}
Chart was posted. 30 min ND.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,952
  • Jul 28, 2015 4:40pm Jul 28, 2015 4:40pm
Tough to trade when NZD pairs have all moved the ADR during the first 40 mins of the new trading day . Aussie pairs not quite as crazy but still some decent moves all caused by RBNZ Gov Wheeler speech. Gotta love it!

Wild... GBPNZD has moved 264 pips already while GBPUSD has moved 14...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,953
  • Jul 29, 2015 11:06am Jul 29, 2015 11:06am
I, like many others I'm sure, am taking all of this information in,and soaking it up like a sponge. Please don't think the lack of replies in anyway means a lack of interest. Keep 'em coming.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #26,954
  • Jul 29, 2015 5:23pm Jul 29, 2015 5:23pm
Watch the Daily GbpUsd, weakness is here. Im waiting for confirmation but looks like an upthrust on high volume fomc day may stop market temporarily.
  • #26,955
  • Jul 29, 2015 8:50pm Jul 29, 2015 8:50pm
Quoting pres78
Daily range already exceeded but with London boys gone and only NY left around I couldn't resist shorting this beauty 30 min ND (yes right at the days low I know but if they aren't buying then the trend won't end). Plus the sellers made a move up into 5115 over the few bars before the ND so I am hoping that is sufficient fuel for my trade. See how this plays out. Hoping to snag 2 or 3 to 1 R:R. {image}
Hi Pres,
Noticed that you've been trading M30 and higher. Do you still trade M5 and M10/M15 ?
  • #26,956
  • Jul 30, 2015 4:42am Jul 30, 2015 4:42am
Quoting pooh123
{quote} Hi Pres, Noticed that you've been trading M30 and higher. Do you still trade M5 and M10/M15 ?
When I have time yes. Back working full time so most trades will be 4hr and daily charts.

If I have any extra time I may drop down and take a peak at 1, 5 and 15 minute for some quicker trades.

Honestly though I really like the 30 minute (and even 15 minute) charts as it shows many of the NS / ND's that get lost in the 1 hour.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,957
  • Jul 30, 2015 11:26am Jul 30, 2015 11:26am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Watch the Daily GbpUsd, weakness is here. Im waiting for confirmation but looks like an upthrust on high volume fomc day may stop market temporarily.
Breaking Down, I'll post a chart after US session.
  • #26,958
  • Jul 31, 2015 9:45am Jul 31, 2015 9:45am
lines do talk

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lines.jpg Size: 139 KB
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #26,959
  • Jul 31, 2015 9:55am Jul 31, 2015 9:55am
Quoting Vcv13
lines do talk {image}
Maybe........but volume SHOUTS.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #26,960
  • Aug 3, 2015 9:36am Aug 3, 2015 9:36am
yes, I do understand what you mean HG
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
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