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Let's Trade Options

  • #9,601
  • Jul 27, 2015 9:43am Jul 27, 2015 9:43am
Quoting The Fool
I will be selling SPY Sep $213/$215 for $.60 if I can get it, will be looking at the other indices also premarket.
trying to get $0.62, looking at Q's bear calls too
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,602
  • Jul 27, 2015 10:14am Jul 27, 2015 10:14am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} trying to get $0.62, looking at Q's bear calls too
Sold /ES Sep 2130/2160 call spread for $7.25... midpoint was $8.00 in premarket, but I didn't get a fill... I think we are going down at least to the lower end of the range, i.e. ~2040...

"China's benchmark stock market slid 8.5 percent on Monday, suffering its biggest daily loss since 2007..."
and Oil... /Cl @ $47.40 and that range is active for too long...


Addon - both /ES and /NQ tested Fridays lows. They couldn't go over that. So -> south we go, IMO.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,603
  • Jul 27, 2015 10:19am Jul 27, 2015 10:19am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Sold /ES Sep 2130/2160 call spread for $7.25... So -> south we go, IMO.
yeah I shoulda took $0.60 when I had it in me sights, not in the mood to chase, we'll see what the day brings, or the next....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,604
  • Edited 10:50am Jul 27, 2015 10:38am | Edited 10:50am
Quoting straydog
... Both /es and /nq tested fridays lows. They couldn't go over that. So -> south we go, imo.
timbeeeeeeer!

Attached Image



add-on
/ES volume already over 1M contracts... with more than 4 hours to the close.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,605
  • Jul 27, 2015 11:50am Jul 27, 2015 11:50am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yeah I shoulda took $0.60 when I had it in me sights, not in the mood to chase, we'll see what the day brings, or the next....
re: Sep $213/$215 - no fillee, need SPY back to $207.40 or so....we should get a green bounce one of these days. I am naturally wary of V-bottom action, but my gut tells me we are running out of those....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,606
  • Jul 27, 2015 2:37pm Jul 27, 2015 2:37pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} re: Sep $213/$215 - no fillee, need SPY back to $207.40 or so....we should get a green bounce one of these days. I am naturally wary of V-bottom action, but my gut tells me we are running out of those....
I think so as well.. that rejection off 2130 is really looking like a decent top for ... who knows how long
  • #9,607
  • Jul 27, 2015 2:54pm Jul 27, 2015 2:54pm
BIDU may have a outlier move in it after maerket closes, i'm not in it as I just can't get in a cheap enough option but will be watching it to see how far the move may end up
  • #9,608
  • Jul 27, 2015 2:58pm Jul 27, 2015 2:58pm
BIDU my guess is +$25 after hours....so it will go down $30
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,609
  • Jul 27, 2015 3:10pm Jul 27, 2015 3:10pm
as I expected SPY is bouncing after hours - this is getting to be a clockwork pattern - if the SnP gives up 0.75% during rth it will get at least 0.25% back ah. Anyway, I filled nothing today and gotta believe a bit of green bounce is due - but with FOMC/GDP looming that just might not be in the cards.

I'm still looking to short fiber via FXE otm put calendars or bull put verts, as noted above - got more room to work today....tomorrow is another day...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,610
  • Jul 27, 2015 3:32pm Jul 27, 2015 3:32pm
Quoting The Fool
BIDU my guess is +$25 after hours....so it will go down $30
there ya go, just fade TF's trades and grow wealthy
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,611
  • Jul 27, 2015 4:24pm Jul 27, 2015 4:24pm
Quoting The Fool
BIDU my guess is +$25 after hours....so it will go down $30
I almost bought some $155 Friday puts for about 8c, let's see what they're worth tomorrow....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,612
  • Jul 27, 2015 6:21pm Jul 27, 2015 6:21pm
Quoting The Fool
where do you see fiber going next month or two? If the macro USD strength factors mentioned above line up, I'd bet we could be 500 pips lower in September. Bfly below targets actual fiber $1.05 & risks ~20c to make maxP $1.25. If you wait and get some iv pickup, as fiber starts to trend down, the bflys get priced better and you can fund with bear call verts..... {image}
Need to study up on FXE; it's been flying under the radar due to its low IVR, but that may change quickly when the Janet show takes the stage. I've got one "old" iron condor left on in it that I am not currently fond of; I should probably just close it out so it quicks looking at me ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,613
  • Jul 27, 2015 6:27pm Jul 27, 2015 6:27pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Exactly. From my experience, VIX ETFs and ETNs are best to buy / sell in premarket, if you trade them directly. This last bottom at /ES around 2035/2040 - VIX gone to $20... Buy the dip by shorting the VIX, i.e. go long XIV or SVXY... a few days later, VIX gone from $20 to $12... ES gone from ~2040 to ~2120, which is about +4%. But XIV and SVXY jumped 30%. Yep, 30% in just 4-5 days. When the thing looks really scary... buy those. VIX can't stay up for a long time, ONLY if serious correction is in front of us, but these 3-5% dips in US indices,...
I just need to pay attention to them a little more ... . I get goofing around with other crap, and, woop!, there goes VXX/UVXY, out for a massive rip, and I've missed a dip ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,614
  • Jul 27, 2015 6:35pm Jul 27, 2015 6:35pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Need to study up on FXE; it's been flying under the radar due to its low IVR, but that may change quickly when the Janet show takes the stage. I've got one "old" iron condor left on in it that I am not currently fond of; I should probably just close it out so it quicks looking at me ... .
low IVR is the time to get into cheap calendars....I will price them in puts again tonight for a fiber $105 target by Sept or Sept5
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,615
  • Jul 27, 2015 6:37pm Jul 27, 2015 6:37pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} re: Sep $213/$215 - no fillee, need SPY back to $207.40 or so....we should get a green bounce one of these days. I am naturally wary of V-bottom action, but my gut tells me we are running out of those....
You are not alone ... . With the day job, most days I've just got to set up possible trades in the a.m. pre-market and then hope they get filled some time during the day. I set up four different short call verts last night; I was 0/4 for fills. Nature of the beast ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,616
  • Jul 27, 2015 6:48pm Jul 27, 2015 6:48pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} low IVR is the time to get into cheap calendars....I will price them in puts again tonight for a fiber $105 target by Sept or Sept5
Yep. Need to goof around with them a bit ... . Can't just sell premium all the time ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,617
  • Jul 27, 2015 6:49pm Jul 27, 2015 6:49pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} You are not alone ... . With the day job, most days I've just got to set up possible trades in the a.m. pre-market and then hope they get filled
same here, but I can get up at 0600, 30 minutes before NY, and take up to 2 hrs b4 I have to jet around 0800, plenty o time, I just missed that call vert this AM by a few minutes....maybe something same or better be there Tues with a little green action
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,618
  • Jul 27, 2015 7:05pm Jul 27, 2015 7:05pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Yep. Need to goof around with them a bit ... . Can't just sell premium all the time ... .
I'm thinking something like Sep 4 short put/Sep 18 long call at 105 for an .18 db, BE's at 102.61 and 107.50; risking 18 to make 74 ... . Could possibly go even more aggressive; there's kind of a double bottom at 106.30, which may not hold up for long post-JY show ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,619
  • Jul 27, 2015 7:14pm Jul 27, 2015 7:14pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} same here, but I can get up at 0600, 30 minutes before NY, and take up to 2 hrs b4 I have to jet around 0800, plenty o time, I just missed that call vert this AM by a few minutes....maybe something same or better be there Tues with a little green action
Hoping to get some crap filled tomorrow (day off; rubs hands together) ... . I'm down to only having two QQQ iron condors on; everything else indexy was taken off at 50% max profit, leaving me with just a bunch of problem children ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,620
  • Jul 27, 2015 9:50pm Jul 27, 2015 9:50pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} low IVR is the time to get into cheap calendars....I will price them in puts again tonight for a fiber $105 target by Sept or Sept5
there is no Sept5 expiry for FXE, and the Sept4's have not come up yet...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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