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PVSRA (Price, Volume, S&R Analysis)

  • #2,081
  • Jul 23, 2015 8:19am Jul 23, 2015 8:19am
Hello, my trade today. I try to do 1 trade a day because of my limited time but i will try to do more in the future. My pleasure Petr.K. Thanks guys for your posts, i am learning a lot from them. Today before usd news i saw price consolidating about 3/4 line. Price also consolidated above key levels before news on audusd and gbpusd in favour of dollar strengthening. so i took the trade short on nzdusd.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDM15.png Size: 54 KB
  • #2,082
  • Jul 23, 2015 5:36pm Jul 23, 2015 5:36pm
Quoting leentjai
{quote} Closed part of trades +51 p average {image}
[quote author=leentjai link=msg=343765 date=1437489735]
Opened short GBP/JPY and LOng AUD/USD
[/quote]
Clpsed GBP/JPY average +69.8p
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy-m15-2407c.png Size: 55 KB
  • #2,083
  • Jul 24, 2015 5:08am Jul 24, 2015 5:08am
Hello everyone

I would like to ask you guys something about my analysis for the NZDUSD yesterday.
I saw price consolidate in the yellow box below the half number. Now one might assume that the MM's are building long positions so
we would study the overall trend and move down the time frame (like 5 and 1 minute) to determine what the volume is doing.
Once our PVA analysis confirmed bearish or bullish activity we would prepare to enter a trade.

I decided to stay out of this trade because we were coming to the close of London.
Now i noticed that the market continued to fall in support of strong USD news yesterday.

I have one question to ask please -
If the MM's knew that they wanted to move price down from below the half number why did they not consolidate above half number(red rectangle in pic below) and then move it down. My reasoning would be that maybe they already had the liquidity to move price down and so did not need to visit above half number. Why would the MM's consolidate below half number and then drop price. I look forward to some enlightening feedback. Thank you

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDM15.png Size: 51 KB
  • #2,084
  • Jul 24, 2015 11:39am Jul 24, 2015 11:39am
Hello i was too busy this week so there is rest of my trades from this week .
Have a nice weekend..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPYH1.png Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDH1.png Size: 42 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPYH4.png Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCADH4.png Size: 43 KB
  • #2,085
  • Jul 25, 2015 8:30pm Jul 25, 2015 8:30pm
Quoting Petr.K
Hello i was too busy this week so there is rest of my trades from this week . Have a nice weekend.. {image} {image} {image} {image}
  • #2,086
  • Jul 26, 2015 6:42am Jul 26, 2015 6:42am
Time to ​pay attention this pair AUD/CAD
Possible change in trend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audcad-h1-260715y.png Size: 61 KB
  • #2,087
  • Jul 26, 2015 9:55am Jul 26, 2015 9:55am
Hi..

Thanks for the thread! I'm reading from the begin to understand the basis, but some concepts are hard to understand without can follow the market in real time.

So in the chart posted by leentjai, my understanding is:
The long candle (4:00) are a price drop by a normal work of market probably induced by previous short positions of MM (or other reason that i can't understand so far...), but there no significant orders entered from MM during this hour, since there are no volume that justify it.
Than, the following short range bares with big volume are MM leaving short positions. Finally at (17:00) MM are entering long positions (or some combination of both during these big volume candles).

I'm right? Can you please detail your analyses ?

Thanks
  • #2,088
  • Jul 26, 2015 6:17pm Jul 26, 2015 6:17pm
Quoting matinhas
Hi.. Thanks for the thread! I'm reading from the begin to understand the basis, but some concepts are hard to understand without can follow the market in real time. So in the chart posted by leentjai, my understanding is: The long candle (4:00) are a price drop by a normal work of market probably induced by previous short positions of MM (or other reason that i can't understand so far...), but there no significant orders entered from MM during this hour, since there are no volume that justify it. Than, the following short range bares with big volume...
Long red candlestick and short volume bar -SL HANTERING and suck traders in SHORT trades
Your analyses is right !
  • #2,089
  • Jul 26, 2015 7:23pm Jul 26, 2015 7:23pm


Having a lot of trade exits by SL's (or order close at market), this don't increase the volume.. because the volume is tick counting and there are only big tick volume when were performed a "battle" side by side to push the price up/down. In this case the move during that candle (4:00) were almost unidirectional (down) without significant push's up.
So, what MM were doing on following big volume candles is feed long positions in the liquidity provided by short traders attracted by the apparent bearish trend.. Resuming, now the SM are long and DM are short, but my question is, what mechanism SM will use to induce the bullish move? Is a big and instantaneous injection of long orders?
  • #2,090
  • Jul 27, 2015 5:10am Jul 27, 2015 5:10am
Quoting leentjai
Time to ​pay attention this pair AUD/CAD Possible change in trend {image}
Lentai can i ask you, what for broker you use ? Because when i looking on your Chart pic i see there lot diference (between my and yours) in volume for example..

Thnx
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MetaTrader - AxiTrader.png Size: 149 KB
  • #2,091
  • Jul 27, 2015 5:32am Jul 27, 2015 5:32am
Quoting Petr.K
Hello i was too busy this week so there is rest of my trades from this week . Have a nice weekend.. {image} {image} {image} {image}
Big thank you for sharing you trades with Us I check every Chart to learn something from you. Hope you gonna continue sharing. God bless you
  • #2,092
  • Jul 27, 2015 5:44am Jul 27, 2015 5:44am
Quoting Sepoleanjel
{quote} Big thank you for sharing you trades with Us I check every Chart to learn something from you. Hope you gonna continue sharing. God bless you
Thank you
  • #2,093
  • Jul 27, 2015 6:03am Jul 27, 2015 6:03am
I just saw this thread and I am going to try it on my demo account till i get confident. Everyone looks like they are making nice pips out there.

As a price action dude i really approve of this. And yes, market makers are always out there to f**k retail traders up
  • #2,094
  • Jul 27, 2015 6:47am Jul 27, 2015 6:47am
Quoting Sepoleanjel
{quote} Lentai can i ask you, what for broker you use ? Because when i looking on your Chart pic i see there lot diference (between my and yours) in volume for example.. Thnx {image}
I use "GoMarkets"
  • #2,095
  • Jul 27, 2015 7:48am Jul 27, 2015 7:48am
Quoting leentjai
Time to ​pay attention this pair AUD/CAD Possible change in trend {image}
I opened Long AUD/CAD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audcad-m15-270715o.png Size: 72 KB
  • #2,096
  • Jul 27, 2015 7:55am Jul 27, 2015 7:55am
First trade of new week ....
Added something wich is not written in the charts is just one thing --- If u look at this move before i have opened my trade donīt you think that this is a fake brekout ?? Especially if u look at those shadows
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CHFJPYH1.png Size: 42 KB
  • #2,097
  • Jul 27, 2015 8:43am Jul 27, 2015 8:43am
Quoting leentjai
{quote} I opened Long AUD/CAD {image}
closed aud?cad average+26.5p
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audcad-m15-2707c.png Size: 69 KB
  • #2,098
  • Edited 2:28pm Jul 27, 2015 2:16pm | Edited 2:28pm
Is valid this trade? Comment please.

As i'm reading on many posts, mostly here don't trade against the trend, right? In lower TF it don't work or is too risky?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CHFJPYM15.png Size: 52 KB


Probably the volume differences aren't enough significant....
  • #2,099
  • Jul 27, 2015 3:37pm Jul 27, 2015 3:37pm
Hi, I'm now here and in this thread. What I understand, you can trade against trend (pullbacks) but not against the MMs. You should use lower tfs for consolidation when you're not sure. (I'm new, but) I would say, wait till Tokyo open, it looks on M5 and M15 like small pullback and then down in the trend again.
If the solution wasn't yet found, first we better draw a round.
  • #2,100
  • Jul 27, 2015 6:40pm Jul 27, 2015 6:40pm
Quoting leentjai
{quote} I use "GoMarkets"
Thnx
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