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Silent Service Method

  • #15,361
  • Jul 19, 2015 4:44pm Jul 19, 2015 4:44pm
I am not too worried about fundamental analysis, no. I mean I do pay attention to the general attitude of the markets on a particular currency or instrument. The people that worry too much ab out the news in my opinion often find themselves chasing their tails. There is simply far too much out there to try to get your thoughts around in my opinion. However, sometimes - such as the Greece situation over the last several months - a particular event is running the show. Those times, I pay a bit more attention, but still follow the charts in the end.

A lot of times when I place a trade, I have an area I recognize as potential resistance coming up. (Assuming I am going long.) A lot of times, I will move the stop loss to break even once we get to that level, so that I can perhaps get a larger move. However, I only do this in the overall trend of the market. Here is an example - but not based on charts, simply on levels. (I don't have charts open at the moment:

Buy EUR/USD at 1.10...

Lets say I have a stop loss at 1.09

I also recognize that there is resistance at 1.12

I think that we are in an uptrend. (Humor me here, I know we aren't.)

Once we get close to the 1.12 level, I move stop losses to b/e.

Once we clear the 1.12 level decisively, I would move stop loss to just below 1.12, thereby letter the former resistance hopefully act as future support in my favor. Hope that helps.
  • #15,362
  • Jul 19, 2015 4:45pm Jul 19, 2015 4:45pm
Quoting egkid
{quote} I been all the day checking many posts and all says up up up and no one mention or looked to this level as ur chart good to see someone on same boat like me i remember this level very good last of 2008 and 2009 I may add I'm interested to 1.2430 but let's c first how it goes will b following ur input about this pair
Yes, I think the chart coincides nicely with $50 oil. (WTI) I think we are going to see a major move soon. Will let the market tell me which way, and simply follow......
  • #15,363
  • Jul 20, 2015 7:13am Jul 20, 2015 7:13am
Just wrote something for the blog you should take a look at:

http://thetraderguy.com/gold-forecast/
  • #15,364
  • Jul 20, 2015 10:00am Jul 20, 2015 10:00am
Quoting clockwork71
Just wrote something for the blog you should take a look at: http://thetraderguy.com/gold-forecast/
Right on mate,, right on.
Combat crazy markets with crazy trading
  • #15,365
  • Jul 20, 2015 3:11pm Jul 20, 2015 3:11pm
Quoting CrazyOz
{quote} Right on mate,, right on.

Thanks for the support. However, the one thing that I would stress is this:

It's a long-term situation. Take your time.
  • #15,366
  • Jul 21, 2015 9:49pm Jul 21, 2015 9:49pm
This is an example of when I will use short-term charts. Granted, 4 hours isn't exactly a quick chart, but it isn't daily - which I prefer. This is the NZD/USD pair, and as you can see we are starting to see shooting stars. It is with the overall downward trend, and near the 0.6650 resistance level. I am seriously thinking about going short for a move back to the 0.65 handle......

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  • #15,367
  • Jul 21, 2015 10:04pm Jul 21, 2015 10:04pm
GOOD observe ation.......
  • #15,368
  • Edited 1:10am Jul 22, 2015 12:48am | Edited 1:10am
Quoting clockwork71
This is an example of when I will use short-term charts. Granted, 4 hours isn't exactly a quick chart, but it isn't daily - which I prefer. This is the NZD/USD pair, and as you can see we are starting to see shooting stars. It is with the overall downward trend, and near the 0.6650 resistance level. I am seriously thinking about going short for a move back to the 0.65 handle...... {image}
Might be worth waiting for tonights news Chris.
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #15,369
  • Jul 22, 2015 4:53pm Jul 22, 2015 4:53pm
Quoting Banzaisky
{quote} Might be worth waiting for tonights news Chris.
Yeah got a bounce, but to be honest....I think the downside will present itself.
  • #15,370
  • Jul 22, 2015 6:43pm Jul 22, 2015 6:43pm
I know its counter trend.. but i think we are talking of a good resistance.


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  • #15,371
  • Jul 23, 2015 1:15pm Jul 23, 2015 1:15pm
Quoting guiyee
I know its counter trend.. but i think we are talking of a good resistance. {image}
At this point in time, it looks like the USD/CAD is going to form a hammer at the end of the day. If so, we could go higher. I think oil isn't helping the CAD either....

However, it is only 2:15 pm in NY at the moment....

Chris
  • #15,372
  • Jul 25, 2015 11:27am Jul 25, 2015 11:27am
Here is yet another look at the Nikkei. I think that this is one of the "easier" markets to trade at the moment, as the Bank of Japan continue to liquify the markets. Unlike most central banks, the Bank of Japan openly steps into the Nikkei 225 and buys ETFs. They of course also buy a ton of bonds, so this drives down the value of the Yen. This helps exports, and Japan is nothing but an export driven economy. Too many reasons to think that we go higher.

Looking at the chart, there is a nice spread between the 50,100, and 200 day EMAs. This is a common site among strong trends. I think that the 20,000 level being just below is a good thing as well. I am buying yet again on a dip that shows support. I suggest using CFDs if you can, simply because you can trade the correct size for your account.

Chris

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  • #15,373
  • Jul 25, 2015 12:11pm Jul 25, 2015 12:11pm
Here is an interesting chart.......been linking the Pound recently, and a break above the highs from Friday has me going long for a bounce.

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Having said this......I think the Pound looks very interesting against the CAD and AUD as well....

Chris
  • #15,374
  • Jul 25, 2015 12:45pm Jul 25, 2015 12:45pm
Nikkei has had a very good run and this rally we're seeing could be identified as likely already last summer when COT data turned very bullish. And since then we've gone from around 15,500 to above 20,000. It's about time for a breather... I'm keeping an eye on COT data to see when the smart money say it's time.
  • #15,375
  • Jul 25, 2015 4:51pm Jul 25, 2015 4:51pm
Quoting o990l6mh
Nikkei has had a very good run and this rally we're seeing could be identified as likely already last summer when COT data turned very bullish. And since then we've gone from around 15,500 to above 20,000. It's about time for a breather... I'm keeping an eye on COT data to see when the smart money say it's time.
Fair enough, however I think that the Bank of Japan will still work towards higher levels. Although.....I would anticipate that it could be next month before we see a significant impulsive move, with it being this time of year and all. Nonetheless, I think we still have an upward bias....
  • #15,376
  • Jul 25, 2015 5:43pm Jul 25, 2015 5:43pm
Quoting clockwork71
{quote} Fair enough, however I think that the Bank of Japan will still work towards higher levels. Although.....I would anticipate that it could be next month before we see a significant impulsive move, with it being this time of year and all. Nonetheless, I think we still have an upward bias....
Oh there's no doubt that the bias is up! Either we're long or we're flat
  • #15,377
  • Jul 26, 2015 9:57am Jul 26, 2015 9:57am
Ran across a great example of a stock you want to own over the weekend. (Full disclosure, I don't.) Amazon. Nice gap, and a continuation of real strength. Also, there was a significant amount of volume on that day as well. Because of this, the stock should continue to climb. However, there are a couple of ways to approach this stock:

A) Buy calls and take pieces of profit.
B) Go ahead and buy the stock now, and accept the fact that there will more than likely be a pullback sooner or later.
C) Buy CFDs, as Amazon is a fairly common one, gradually adding to the position as we rise.
D) Wait until we get a supportive candle below, probably somewhere in that yellow box.

There is no wrong way to go about it, but make sure that you are comfortable in your choice, this is what makes the difference in the long-run. If you are not, then you will get shaken out of the position.

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  • #15,378
  • Jul 27, 2015 7:19am Jul 27, 2015 7:19am
This market has made a lot of people wealthy this past year if they were sellers. The opening action this week was a gap lower. We have filled it, and I am getting ready to sell if we fall slightly. Natural Gas is everywhere, and the supply continues to overwhelm the markets.

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  • #15,379
  • Jul 27, 2015 8:37am Jul 27, 2015 8:37am
Quoting clockwork71
This market has made a lot of people wealthy this past year if they were sellers. The opening action this week was a gap lower. We have filled it, and I am getting ready to sell if we fall slightly. Natural Gas is everywhere, and the supply continues to overwhelm the markets. {image}
I'm already a seller here and also thinking about adding to my shorts if it falls back down below last weeks close.
  • #15,380
  • Jul 27, 2015 10:28am Jul 27, 2015 10:28am
Quoting o990l6mh
{quote} I'm already a seller here and also thinking about adding to my shorts if it falls back down below last weeks close.

This market looks a lot like Gold did in the 80s......you just sold every time it bounced. Where I live, we literally have more natural gas in the ground than we know what to do with - and Pennsylvania is even worse......
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