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Let's Trade Options

  • #9,581
  • Jul 26, 2015 10:17pm Jul 26, 2015 10:17pm
I don't know if I want to put on more in VIX products at this point ... . I've got a couple of short duration UVXY short put verts on; I was paying attention and caught the bottom fairly well ... . I've found those are best put on when I've got a day off, can watch the chart, and can goof around with the fill price throughout the day.

Not that we're going to see another bottom like we did last week, but I might be tempted to put on more long VIX with a VXX debit spread if we get another dip here, maybe to sub-16 in VXX. Scares me a bit less than UVXY ... .

As far as shorting VIX, I may have a gander at XIV or one of the other inverse VIX ETF's... . Easier to work off a inverse VIX product bottom than a UVXY/VXX top, I figure ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,582
  • Jul 26, 2015 10:18pm Jul 26, 2015 10:18pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I don't know if I want to put on more in VIX products at this point ... . I've got a couple of short duration UVXY short put verts on; I was paying attention and caught the bottom fairly well ... . I've found those are best put on when I've got a day off, can watch the chart, and can goof around with the fill price throughout the day. Not that we're going to see another bottom like we did last week, but I might be tempted to put on more long VIX with a VXX debit spread if we get another dip here, maybe to sub-16 in VXX. Scares me a bit less than...
Crap ... . XIV doesn't have options; the next alternative would be SVXY ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,583
  • Jul 26, 2015 10:24pm Jul 26, 2015 10:24pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} if you like the Q's also a Sep $114/$116 bear call vert gets ya about $0.62....$113/$115 gets $0.78
I would actually prefer either QQQ or IWM bear call verts right now ... . Slightly higher IVR gives a little more juice ... . Of course this is off market hours, but QQQ has like a 49 IVR, followed by IWM's 48, DIA's 41, SPY's 31 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,584
  • Jul 26, 2015 10:32pm Jul 26, 2015 10:32pm
I like playing weeklies on UVXY - I know, I'm stoopid......but you can catch some good mispricing in UVXY sometimes. These will usually correspond to wide disparities in the volumes between strikes. I am looking at Friday $25.5/$23 bull puts for 32c....that will change come tomorrow, we'll see...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,585
  • Jul 26, 2015 10:39pm Jul 26, 2015 10:39pm
Quoting The Fool
I like playing weeklies on UVXY - I know, I'm stoopid......but you can catch some good mispricing in UVXY sometimes. These will usually correspond to wide disparities in the volumes between strikes. I am looking at Friday $25.5/$23 bull puts for 32c....that will change come tomorrow, we'll see...
I looked at similar set ups with similar strike prices 25, 25.5, 26 -- 1 1/2 - 2 wide spreads, one to three weeks out ... . I think that's a good set-up, but it's all about getting filled ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,586
  • Jul 26, 2015 10:49pm Jul 26, 2015 10:49pm
where do you see fiber going next month or two? If the macro USD strength factors mentioned above line up, I'd bet we could be 500 pips lower in September. Bfly below targets actual fiber $1.05 & risks ~20c to make maxP $1.25. If you wait and get some iv pickup, as fiber starts to trend down, the bflys get priced better and you can fund with bear call verts.....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,587
  • Jul 26, 2015 10:55pm Jul 26, 2015 10:55pm
/ZB is green overnight, long bond futures getting bought....I was totally wrong on recent bearish TLT trades, luckily they were all cheap calendars...but those little cuts....

I'll catch ya laters ZS, gotta do some homework...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,588
  • Edited 3:47am Jul 27, 2015 3:32am | Edited 3:47am
wow, SHCOMP down 8.5% - what's a way to trade it most directly during its actual hours? (check FXI, EWH at the open)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,589
  • Jul 27, 2015 3:51am Jul 27, 2015 3:51am
Quoting The Fool
wow, SHCOMP down 8.5% - what's a way to trade it most directly during its actual hours? (check FXI, EWH at the open) {image}
Chinese equities are going to drag the globe equities down
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #9,590
  • Jul 27, 2015 3:52am Jul 27, 2015 3:52am
Quoting The Fool
wow, SHCOMP down 8.5% - what's a way to trade it most directly during its actual hours? (check FXI, EWH at the open) {image}
you mentioned you are going to short spy. dow may drop faster
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #9,591
  • Jul 27, 2015 3:56am Jul 27, 2015 3:56am
Quoting The Fool
wow, SHCOMP down 8.5% - what's a way to trade it most directly during its actual hours? (check FXI, EWH at the open) {image}
China is getting scary very scary .... The last few weeks we are witnessing a move of major proportions.... All eyes has been in China since the opening this week ...

Directly I don't think you can't. Maybe via the trackers ASHR, etc... Commodities are the one I am tracking very closely ... they are getting hit from every front and if China's problems get beyond a Stock market adjustment .....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #9,592
  • Jul 27, 2015 4:36am Jul 27, 2015 4:36am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
... As far as shorting VIX, I may have a gander at XIV or one of the other inverse VIX ETF's... . Easier to work off a inverse VIX product bottom than a UVXY/VXX top, I figure ... .
Exactly.
From my experience, VIX ETFs and ETNs are best to buy / sell in premarket, if you trade them directly.

This last bottom at /ES around 2035/2040 - VIX gone to $20... Buy the dip by shorting the VIX, i.e. go long XIV or SVXY... a few days later, VIX gone from $20 to $12... ES gone from ~2040 to ~2120, which is about +4%. But XIV and SVXY jumped 30%. Yep, 30% in just 4-5 days. When the thing looks really scary... buy those. VIX can't stay up for a long time, ONLY if serious correction is in front of us, but these 3-5% dips in US indices, shorting vol spikes IS one of the absolute best plays.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,593
  • Jul 27, 2015 4:48am Jul 27, 2015 4:48am
I have Hong Kong Hang Seng CFDs on IB, IBHK50 is the ticker, futures available also... Nothing for China indices.

So trading China directly is not an option on this platform, but there are ETFs, like FXI and some other.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,594
  • Jul 27, 2015 4:55am Jul 27, 2015 4:55am
Quoting StrayDog
I have Hong Kong Hang Seng CFDs on IB, IBHK50 is the ticker, futures available also....
I'll have to check those out, FXI and EWH do not seem to catch the vol of the actual index moves, and ASHR is well not quite up to snuff
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,595
  • Edited 5:44am Jul 27, 2015 5:01am | Edited 5:44am
One of the good plays for down market would be buying OTM weekly puts, especially on expiration day, like last Friday.

I am looking now at /NQ futures options, and I can say that I do not like them. Bid ask spread are very wide, you can't compare that with /ES futures options.
On the other hand, QQQ have very nice options. I use to trade those, and IWM options regularly.

Thinking about some variations of the super bear setups. Like selling ONE Sep OTM call spread, and use 1/2 of the credit to buy 2-3 cheap put debit spreads, with less DTE, like 1/2 of the call spread. So, if nothing happens, OR the down move is not that strong, I will have something from the call spread.

I would really like some rip on the FOMC or on the whatever, and then would go lower with call spreads, like Sep 2130/2160... (currently about $8.00 CR)... In that case, I would use $4.00 CR to buy 2-3 put spreads, maybe with 2 or 3 weeks DTE...

Addon: bear call spreads would be 30 ponts wide, and put spreads 10 points wide. Sell wide spreads, buy narrow spreads.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,596
  • Jul 27, 2015 7:09am Jul 27, 2015 7:09am
Quoting StrayDog
One of the good plays for down market would be buying OTM weekly puts, especially on expiration day, like last Friday. I am looking now at /NQ futures options, and I can say that I do not like them. Bid ask spread are very wide, you can't compare that with /ES futures options. On the other hand, QQQ have very nice options. I use to trade those, and IWM options regularly. Thinking about some variations of the super bear setups. Like selling ONE Sep OTM call spread, and use 1/2 of the credit to buy 2-3 cheap put debit spreads, with...
I kinda like that, I'm buying SPY, 8 strikes OTM with 1 year time value and selling monthlies 8 strikes out again and will continue to do that until I have reduced my cost basis by 50%, same with APPLE
  • #9,597
  • Jul 27, 2015 7:13am Jul 27, 2015 7:13am
so many stocks especially indexes are poised for large sustained moves and furter out options prices are relatively cheap in comparison, BABA is gearing up to be a good earnings play 12 August keep a eye on that, some good ones THAT WERE HIGHLIGHTED THIS WEEK too
  • #9,598
  • Jul 27, 2015 7:18am Jul 27, 2015 7:18am
Also looking to do a long term play on the YEN over the coming weeks, probably on FXY is poised for a good run again up or down I do not know so another OTM strangle looks good 12 months out DTE
  • #9,599
  • Jul 27, 2015 7:31am Jul 27, 2015 7:31am
I'll be watching the US housing market numbers as the hombuilders index ETF looks another long term play that could yield good profits on a strangle strategy providing the uption price and spreads are not too far apart
  • #9,600
  • Edited 9:16am Jul 27, 2015 9:00am | Edited 9:16am
Sold /NQ Sep 4650/4700 call spread for $17.00 CR.
About 1/3 of the width of the strikes. Multiplier for /NQ futures and futures options is 20. So that is a $1,000 spread, and I sold it for $340.
/NQ was about 4525 or so...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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