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  • #9,561
  • Jul 25, 2015 7:51pm Jul 25, 2015 7:51pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} the highlighted ones have good potential for outlier moves
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,562
  • Jul 25, 2015 8:07pm Jul 25, 2015 8:07pm
Quoting The Fool
deeper, pushed out to the quarterly (9/30) - see the P/L on the Sep expiry day (9/18) - the upside b/e would be near $203 - I like the put side spreads - the rising iv feeds them {image} {image}
I'm liking the butterflies ... . I'll have to piddle with possible bfly setups, including broken wings ... . I'm temporarily wary of getting too aggressive setting up long sides of IC's (or setting up anything but short call verts) especially going into FOMC shenanigans. So much air below ... . That being said, virtually every test of 204-ish in SPY since mid-March has resulted in a bounce ... . My guess is this time will be different and that level will quickly give way because Janet will have sung ... . Finally ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,563
  • Jul 25, 2015 8:31pm Jul 25, 2015 8:31pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I'm liking the butterflies ... . I'll have to piddle with possible bfly setups, including broken wings ... . I'm temporarily wary of getting too aggressive setting up long sides of IC's (or setting up anything but short call verts) especially going into FOMC shenanigans. So much air below ... . That being said, virtually every test of 204-ish in SPY since mid-March has resulted in a bounce ... . My guess is this time will be different and that level will quickly give way because Janet will have sung ... . Finally ... .
That being said, weren't folks saying that she would sing in December, then maybe March, then maybe June ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,564
  • Jul 25, 2015 8:45pm Jul 25, 2015 8:45pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I'm liking the butterflies ... . I'll have to piddle with possible bfly setups, including broken wings ... . I'm temporarily wary of getting too aggressive setting up long sides of IC's (or setting up anything but short call verts) especially going into FOMC shenanigans. So much air below ... . That being said, virtually every test of 204-ish in SPY since mid-March has resulted in a bounce ... . My guess is this time will be different and that level will quickly give way because Janet will have sung ... . Finally ... .
yah gonna be an interesting close for the month - FOMC, gdp....I would like to see a little bounce in the new week to sell calls into, but the GDP number is likely gonna be strong, following week's NFP could be a monster....so a little hawk juice from the FOMC and the strong data brings in the old good news is bad news meme and the Sept first hike will be looking like a done deal - which all means a steady slide through August and first weeks of Sept, all the way til the the Sep FOMC and omg, the end of life as we know it?

& if the scenario above is true hell a trader is halfway there - direction is south, just need to pick a target if you playing something tricky like time spreads - otherwise straight bull put verts for cheap debit could pay off well....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,565
  • Jul 25, 2015 8:52pm Jul 25, 2015 8:52pm
Quoting The Fool
if the scenario above is true hell a trader is halfway there - direction is south, just need to pick a target if you playing something tricky like time spreads - otherwise straight bull put verts for cheap debit could pay off well....
voici
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,566
  • Jul 25, 2015 9:03pm Jul 25, 2015 9:03pm
Anyway - an open question to traders on this thread: if we are due for a end-Summer swoon, a correction in US equities, what are your downside targets for let's say the near term (end Sept) and maybe then the end of the year? Throw em out, show some charts, looking at the Qs, IWM, SPY, etc - or their futures equivalents. Mix in a top range for the ^VIX and related products if you like, or anything else that interests you.

The time to get ready to make some serious cash is upon us.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,567
  • Jul 25, 2015 9:35pm Jul 25, 2015 9:35pm
Quoting The Fool
- Mix in a top range for the ^VIX and related products if you like
problem with the vix names is you can't predict where the crazy shit will go if there is real chronic breakdown, (if you are fishing calendars or bflies, u/l might push past your maxP zone) ....maybe easier to just try to catch the direction with otm verticals...or if the u/l is cheap (VXX) you can just go long calls. As luck would have it, the Sep FOMC is a day before the Sep opex.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,568
  • Edited 10:19pm Jul 25, 2015 10:08pm | Edited 10:19pm
I'd bet an Aug slide could take /ES below 2,000 and maybe as deep as 1,960 resistance
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,569
  • Jul 26, 2015 7:09pm Jul 26, 2015 7:09pm
Quoting The Fool
Anyway - an open question to traders on this thread: if we are due for a end-Summer swoon, a correction in US equities, what are your downside targets for let's say the near term (end Sept) and maybe then the end of the year? Throw em out, show some charts, looking at the Qs, IWM, SPY, etc - or their futures equivalents. Mix in a top range for the ^VIX and related products if you like, or anything else that interests you. The time to get ready to make some serious cash is upon us.
Here is a really plain and simple view of levels. There were various stepping stones on the way up; I imagine there'll be stepping stones on the way down:

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I can imagine 203 going post-interest rate hike, a dip toward 197 (2015 lows), and then a possible bit of BTFD at that level before the dippers give up the ghost or are simply overwhelmed by the reality of it all ... . A break of the 2015 low is a distinct possibility in my mind late September ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,570
  • Jul 26, 2015 7:22pm Jul 26, 2015 7:22pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I can imagine 203 going post-interest rate hike, a dip toward 197 (2015 lows), and then a possible bit of BTFD at that level before the dippers give up the ghost or are simply overwhelmed by the reality of it all ... . A break of the 2015 low is a distinct possibility in my mind late September ... .
Big week of earnings coming up - if there are some big misses and any kind of hawk noise from the Fed, I'd expect we can see another 50 pt drop - puts us in touch with SPY $203 to close the month. I will have some weekly trades on. Of course, the reverse of the aforementioned may come to pass and the BTFD party gets it on to close the week.

Anyway I would have to bet on more index downside. The ER's will be mediocre at best, the GDP will be stronger than expected, and JY will reaffirm a 2015 ffr hike. We are long overdue for at least a 10% solid correction & perhaps double that, but I'd bet we can see the mid $190's in August. Low of the year will be doable with a Sept hike, maybe lower, but there will be a steep bounceback from there to close the year around SPY $205 - a m/l flat year for the SnP. That's my call....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,571
  • Jul 26, 2015 7:27pm Jul 26, 2015 7:27pm
gold I see is bouncing a bit - whaddaya think gold will do over the next month, ZS?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,572
  • Jul 26, 2015 7:29pm Jul 26, 2015 7:29pm
When I used to trade spot forex, I was big on Fib lines. There is some coincidence with Fib lines with certain levels of S/R:

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Also noticed that (far to the left) the Oct 2007 slide to the 2009 bottom was from the .618 ... . Although it took more than a year for us to get from the .764 to the recent top, I doubt that it'll take nearly that long to go from the top to the .764 ... .

I know one thing for certain; the top of SPY is somewhat clean here, so I'm going to load a bit heavy on short call verts over various expiries into Sep ... . More vol/a bounce would be helpful, but I naturally don't want to miss the panic to the downside if it surfaces in spades.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,573
  • Jul 26, 2015 7:37pm Jul 26, 2015 7:37pm
Yeah, I throw those fib extensions on for another clue - I see that your first line at SPY $178 coincides with what I had and might be a decent target for the pullback. Anything can happen, though. A deepening commod slump (especially oil) and another thrust up in USD strength could help push SPY further south.

I won't be surprised to see some southside yardage racked up b4 Sept - a sell the rumor scenario, especially if strong US econ data (GDP then NFP) keep rolling in....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,574
  • Jul 26, 2015 7:44pm Jul 26, 2015 7:44pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Big week of earnings coming up - if there are some big misses and any kind of hawk noise from the Fed, I'd expect we can see another 50 pt drop - puts us in touch with SPY $203 to close the month. I will have some weekly trades on. Of course, the reverse of the aforementioned may come to pass and the BTFD party gets it on to close the week. Anyway I would have to bet on more index downside. The ER's will be mediocre at best, the GDP will be stronger than expected, and JY will reaffirm a 2015 ffr hike. We are long overdue for at least a 10%...


Gold, geez, I dunno. This past week, it's been struggling to stay above 1100, and it's descent from 1800-ish has been unrelenting. With dollar strength likely being a theme going forward, I can see it easily retaking 1000. But gold is one of those odd-ball things; it doesn't really have a great deal of industrial value, but people and sovereign entities still seem to cling to it. Point in fact, I was expecting a bounce back toward 1250 upon weakness in the Chinese markets (the Chinese seem to love gold), but I assume that the net worth of many a trader there has been either eroded or wiped out with their gambling on continued upward momentum so that they have no financial ability to wade back into gold (or anything else). Used to be that markets down/gold up as a general rule ... . Not sure that's so any more in today's market when there are so many other things to flee to ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,575
  • Jul 26, 2015 7:45pm Jul 26, 2015 7:45pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I know one thing for certain; the top of SPY is somewhat clean here, so I'm going to load a bit heavy on short call verts over various expiries into Sep ... . More vol/a bounce would be helpful, but I naturally don't want to miss the panic to the downside if it surfaces in spades.
Yeah, I would like to see some upside for SPY Monday to sell into, but there won't be much as things start to freeze up b4 the FOMC. If any real movement it will be down. Anyway, I will be selling SPY Sep $213/$215 for $.60 if I can get it, will be looking at the other indices also premarket.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,576
  • Jul 26, 2015 7:51pm Jul 26, 2015 7:51pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Gold, geez, I dunno. ... .
I would like to short gold but the thing that gives me pause is that we are right on the cusp of gold's historical seasonal strength - typically mid July into Sept to meet the Oct wedding demand in India.....last year July-Sept saw a $250 run up for gold....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,577
  • Jul 26, 2015 7:52pm Jul 26, 2015 7:52pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Gold, geez, I dunno. This past week, it's been struggling to stay above 1100, and it's descent from 1800-ish has been unrelenting. With dollar strength likely being a theme going forward, I can see it easily retaking 1000. But gold is one of those odd-ball things; it doesn't really have a great deal of industrial value, but people and sovereign entities still seem to cling to it. Point in fact, I was expecting a bounce back toward 1250 upon weakness in the Chinese markets (the Chinese seem to love gold), but I assume that the...
That being said, XAUUSD experienced a modest bounce on Friday to clear 1100 ... , but it has struggled to clear and stay above that level since the 7/20 precious metals dump ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,578
  • Jul 26, 2015 8:01pm Jul 26, 2015 8:01pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I would like to short gold but the thing that gives me pause is that we are right on the cusp of gold's historical seasonal strength - typically mid July into Sept to meet the Oct wedding demand in India.....last year July-Sept saw a $250 run up for gold....
Lol. The Indian cyclical wedding market ... . Bring it on ... . I've got some short put verts in GLD that desperately need some help.

Fairly good setups short for SPY with strike prices slightly above the 2015 high and at various expiries ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,579
  • Jul 26, 2015 8:02pm Jul 26, 2015 8:02pm
if the consensus really gels for a Sept ffr, we should see the USD gain strength and weigh on gold and oil. These commods can be pretty fickle, though....I don't trade either one enough to feel lucky
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,580
  • Jul 26, 2015 8:08pm Jul 26, 2015 8:08pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
good setups short for SPY with strike prices slightly above the 2015 high and at various expiries ... .
if you like the Q's also a Sep $114/$116 bear call vert gets ya about $0.62....$113/$115 gets $0.78
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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