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The Only Real Edge: Trading from Breakeven

  • #61
  • Edited 3:34pm Jul 23, 2015 5:36am | Edited 3:34pm
Quoting StopRunFx
Skfx, thanks a lot for your valuable comments -- please continue posting. The more we think about the market, the better we understand it. An example of tight play now. We had a nice spike in EU today (EURUSD 5 MIN), it had already taken place when I started looking at the market. Decided to go for a high 1 chase, it worked: two entries, one out breakeven, the other 2 pip, plus 7 pip partial profits. At 7 pips I reversed to short, based on the tick chart. And again got 2 pips and 7 pips with a swing target left and now just leaving it from BE position....
Yes, absolutely SRFX!
You have to use your brain a little, but you are thinking about the the mechanics of trade and not trying to automate everything.

Very nice scalp trades here!
You are leaning on handle 1.10 (which money will be watching).
You are working macro if shorting EUR. Spread differentials and Greek risk will support shorts.
It makes sense to be shorting the EUR mostly, but it can and has been a funny shit to trade.
I am not a big fan of EUR pairs currently and choose to trade something a little cleaner.

Long GBP on the crosses has been working well, especially against comm currencies. (CAD=Crude oil under pressure, AUD=China up the shit, NZD= Dairy prices soft)
It isn't a one way bet though. You should factor in participant net positioning.

Just have a look at the kiwi today and that reaction makes perfect sense.
With a market that is heavily short NZD and a CB cutting only 25bps(some thought up to 50bps) any less dovish comments will set it off on a run to trim shorts.They had already over the last weeks priced the cut in, it's placed where it needs to be!
Trade higher was the greater risk! The risk for kiwi to run further down was almost non-existent!
Can you see how there is edge there if you think about it right?

USDCHF is also a solid trade with the SNB looking to protect against CHF appreciation.
The rate differential(front-end>>belly) there is also solid.
So long UC on discount/dips makes sense and is low risk high probability.
You can see from USDCHF below that institutions are certainly buying dips here. They pick it up and trade highs.
I so no reason whatsoever to be shorting this cross. If you are shorting it, you are trading against CB's and institutions!
Attached Image

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Fed and BOE are the only two CB's looking to normalize with many other CB's cutting or running QE.
Long USD is also good but caution on timing obviously.
You can have a day/session every now and then and they cut the USD back. So sentiment will be off macro and you'll need to wait for the USD to stabilize to run sentiment on macro to minimize heat taken.

This is all FX 101 though and anybody that trades FX should be considering these factors.
They are what drive currencies.
Regards
  • #62
  • Jul 23, 2015 6:00am Jul 23, 2015 6:00am
The pattern I posted before produced an immediate scalp and BE position shorting EU again. An 8 pip range settled, a few failed pushes up and aggressive selling through those levels.
Attached Image
"To the busy day / To the idle play"
  • #63
  • Jul 23, 2015 2:22pm Jul 23, 2015 2:22pm
I think futures data is OK for normal scalping.
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  • #64
  • Jul 23, 2015 3:23pm Jul 23, 2015 3:23pm
Quoting UnnamedPlayr
I think futures data is OK for normal scalping. {image}
You mean watching futures and executing spot? I have a futures account, but trading two futures lots is still too emotional for me, the account keeps eroding, so I'm trying to gain skill on spot forex with smaller size first. And I actually like the immediate execution and pipette flow in spot forex, removes unnecessary thoughts about fills.
"To the busy day / To the idle play"
  • #65
  • Jul 23, 2015 3:31pm Jul 23, 2015 3:31pm
Quoting skfx
Yes, absolutely SRFX! You have to use your brain a little, but you are thinking about the the mechanics of trade and not trying to automate everything.
Thanks, skfx, I can see you have some very advanced and precise methodology in your arsenal, I'll have some reading up to do on your threads, great stuff! It's amazing to see genuine knowledge shared just like that!
"To the busy day / To the idle play"
  • #66
  • Jul 24, 2015 9:51am Jul 24, 2015 9:51am
Quoting StopRunFx
{quote} Thanks, skfx, I can see you have some very advanced and precise methodology in your arsenal, I'll have some reading up to do on your threads, great stuff! It's amazing to see genuine knowledge shared just like that!
You're welcome SRFX!
I don't get too much time to post often, but i try and give a little extra dimension to trading.
I think most professionals aren't really posting on forums so much.
They may stop in for a check every now and then, but other than that, they are going about their business.

Me posting is a mix of genuine wanting to help traders and seeing them succeed and pure frustration. I don't know exactly what drives me more! LOL

Take care matey and i'll leave you with it!
Regards
  • #67
  • Jul 24, 2015 10:08am Jul 24, 2015 10:08am
Reading this, I thought about the tick indicator that I developed some years ago. Perhaps this may be of some help to someone.
Keep in mind that the MT4 platform does not maintain tickdata - the chart is created in realtime. As such, at startup the indicator will have a blank screen.
Best is to start the platform with the indicator, then go make a cup of coffee.
Usually in around 5-30 minutes (depending on the time of day) I have a chart and can trade the ticks.

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Thanks for a very interesting and informative discussion here.
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File Type: mq4 #TickPrice.mq4   3 KB | 526 downloads
  • #68
  • Jul 25, 2015 5:16am Jul 25, 2015 5:16am
b/e is a real saver.and really help you build up your account safely and fast.
  • #69
  • Jul 25, 2015 3:30pm Jul 25, 2015 3:30pm
I believe if your entry is correct ,which trading this way is critical.the ability to manage your risk is in itself an edge.with a forward indication to flows it is possible to trade very efficiently this way.its not so much a question of closing break even or minus two pips its managing from your entry price and monitoring the flows in and out .the entry can enable you to realize that your risk has increased and enable a small loss .the r/r are playing a major fact in this way of trading.but unless your price levels for entry are on the money it will burn you in costs and chip your account

Skfx has shown the way he does this and others have developed there own ways,but it requires a way to read the flows .
  • #70
  • Jul 25, 2015 10:06pm Jul 25, 2015 10:06pm
I've probably seen 80% of the trading webinars on youtube...hahah
Any presenter on BigMikeTrading is worth watching. They are always informative.
I'll be watching this thread i love these concepts as i'm also a scalper.
  • #71
  • Edited 2:14pm Jul 26, 2015 5:02am | Edited 2:14pm
Quoting diceman555
the ability to manage your risk is in itself an edge.with a forward indication to flows it is possible to trade very efficiently this way.its not so much a question of closing break even or minus two pips its managing from your entry price and monitoring the flows in and out .the entry can enable you to realize that your risk has increased and enable a small loss .
Well said Diceman!
Your quote above is really what it is about!

Simply, you want to get something started that offers very low risk, ideally as the trade plays out, your risk decreases. As your risk decreases, you then begin to leverage the move as it pays you.
In effect your MO will allow you to have very small losses and leveraged winners.
If you can operate in such a way, the end result will be extreme R:R, or what is realized.

Every trader should ask himself/herself what they need to do operationally to be able to realize extreme R:R?
Your R:R will be a direct result of the way you operate!

When i trade I am trying to pull risk in and push reward out , but I do so taking into consideration market feedback.

Regards
  • #72
  • Jul 28, 2015 10:49pm Jul 28, 2015 10:49pm
hi stoprunfx!
do you think this kind of service can be useful with your aprouch to trade!
www.pitview.com
great thread!
thanks!
  • #73
  • Jul 29, 2015 2:07am Jul 29, 2015 2:07am
Quoting bamboopips
hi stoprunfx! do you think this kind of service can be useful with your aprouch to trade! www.pitview.com great thread! thanks!
Useful, yes. Worth the money, no

IMO better to keep it simple..

EURJPY
1M
07:45 GMT

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  • #74
  • Aug 3, 2015 4:23am Aug 3, 2015 4:23am
Quoting bamboopips
hi stoprunfx! do you think this kind of service can be useful with your aprouch to trade! www.pitview.com great thread! thanks!
On holiday now, will be back on this thread toward the end of the month. Pls keep it alive in the meantime .
"To the busy day / To the idle play"
  • #75
  • Aug 12, 2015 12:17am Aug 12, 2015 12:17am
I do scalp too in tick by tick charts and it works.

It's the only timeframe where i can start small, flip and increase positions (that's the real edge).

EUR/USD is very good for that.
  • #76
  • Sep 8, 2015 6:32am Sep 8, 2015 6:32am
Back to trading after holiday, when time permits. Found a better way to look at the tick chart -- open the market watch and click "Tick Chart", so neat and simple. Used to have the New Order open all the time before.
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"To the busy day / To the idle play"
  • #77
  • Sep 9, 2015 6:04am Sep 9, 2015 6:04am
Quoting StopRunFx
Back to trading after holiday, when time permits. Found a better way to look at the tick chart -- open the market watch and click "Tick Chart", so neat and simple. Used to have the New Order open all the time before. {image}
How did you manage to zoom out on your tick chart like that? My tick chart looks like this, no matter how long it is open, or if I zoom out, or zoom in on the main chart...
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  • #78
  • Edited 5:08pm Sep 14, 2015 4:51pm | Edited 5:08pm
Quoting kore2
{quote} How did you manage to zoom out on your tick chart like that? My tick chart looks like this, no matter how long it is open, or if I zoom out, or zoom in on the main chart... {image}
Hey kore2, just drag the right edge of that window (where it meets your bar chart) to the left . One more thing, which I hope is just an anomaly -- the 2.5 pip spread there is monstrous, there's no way one can make money trading tight with such a wide spread, if this is what you see regularly. Tight scalping only works with tight spreads as you often have to exit with just a pip or two in profit or loss (ex commission) to float positioned around Breakeven whilst increasing size in BE+. If the spread is so wide, there's no edge in playing tight (this edge likely being happily exploited by the broker).
"To the busy day / To the idle play"
  • #79
  • Oct 8, 2015 1:25pm Oct 8, 2015 1:25pm
Quoting StopRunFx
{quote} One more thing, which I hope is just an anomaly -- the 2.5 pip spread there is monstrous, there's no way one can make money trading tight with such a wide spread, if this is what you see regularly.
Thx StopRunFx .
It`s an anomaly called Ironfx.
  • #80
  • Oct 9, 2015 6:23am Oct 9, 2015 6:23am
@StopRunFx
I got here because a member mentioned it on my thread

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=561189

Please visit the thread as it seems you could contribute some good angles on the subject mentioned there. One good thread with solid concept. Gonna read it from the beginning first.
Different/opposing ideas will make us learn and understand many things.
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