Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 293 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #5,841
  • Jul 25, 2015 10:56am Jul 25, 2015 10:56am
Apple dropped strongly from all time highs creating a new Daily supply zone. Weekly demand zone is in control at 119.77ish from which price rallied strongly.

Bigger picture trend is bullish, great demand zones nested within previous weekly demand zone at 111.50ish and lower or longs if new levels of demand are created new current weekly demand zone.

This short video explains how last valid long on Apple was planned and executed together with two more longs on Schwab and Timewarner.

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,842
  • Jul 25, 2015 10:57am Jul 25, 2015 10:57am
AUD/USD broke lower after a week of doing absolutely nothing. New Daily supply zones being created. Very bullish, short bias and a long way to reach opposing higher timeframe Weekly and Monthly demand zones. Similar short setups on other aussie cross pairs like AUD/SGD, AUD/PLN, etc.
Weekly supply higher around 0.76sh.

Short bias

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,843
  • Jul 25, 2015 10:57am Jul 25, 2015 10:57am
GBP/USD is bouncing of weekly demand, room to reach Daily supply zone nested within tested weekly supply zone.

Daily bearish trendline was broken once price hit Weekly Demand zone, pin candle created at the retest of Daily demand zone that broke the trendline. More demand lower

Long bias for now.

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,844
  • Jul 25, 2015 10:57am Jul 25, 2015 10:57am
USD/CAD rallied this week accomplishing the removal of a monthly supply zone, it overshot it but still didn't close above it with Daily and Weekly candles.

Potential demand zones being created if we continue rallying and close above.

Long bias

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,845
  • Jul 25, 2015 10:58am Jul 25, 2015 10:58am
Clear bearish trend on Brent. It dropped lower this weak creating a new potential supply zone at 56.40. Tested Daily demand lower were bigger penetration and removed can be expected due to strong bigger downtrend, with room to opposing weekly demand zone at 49ish.

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,846
  • Jul 27, 2015 5:48pm Jul 27, 2015 5:48pm
Hi Mr Alfonso and mates,

I have been away for the thread becase i was focusing in gaining avility to read trends and price though forex testesr 2 and paper trade, i just want give all my rispect and admiration to my teacher Alfonso. with his guidance im able to trade with at least 65 % of chanches of winning, and now i only trading with monthly and weekly trend and curve, beause im adapting options trading with this kind of methodology, now i add a 90% winning trade (delta option trading) to the 65% of winning in spot. so if Alfonso allow me to post MN and W1 analysis of suppy and demand with coments on options i would like to do so.
passion and discipline
  • #5,847
  • Jul 28, 2015 3:43am Jul 28, 2015 3:43am
Hi, everybody. I apologize for my English. We have in Russia not enough information in Russian on this method of the analysis of the movement of the price. But there are guy who translated this method into Russian. After three months of studying, my trade considerably improved.

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  • #5,848
  • Jul 28, 2015 3:54am Jul 28, 2015 3:54am
Quoting rohule
Hi Mr Alfonso and mates, I have been away for the thread becase i was focusing in gaining avility to read trends and price though forex testesr 2 and paper trade, i just want give all my rispect and admiration to my teacher Alfonso. with his guidance im able to trade with at least 65 % of chanches of winning, and now i only trading with monthly and weekly trend and curve, beause im adapting options trading with this kind of methodology, now i add a 90% winning trade (delta option trading) to the 65% of winning in spot. so if Alfonso allow me to...
Hello my friend,

Thanks for sharing with us your results on your trading with supply and demand, I'm very glad to hear about your win/loss ratio, that's awesome.

Please share with us MN and W1 analysis of an instrument with those comments on options you are referring to so I can see what you are doing and make a decision ok?

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,849
  • Jul 28, 2015 11:10pm Jul 28, 2015 11:10pm
Price is not doing much on EUR/USD. It has been sumo-rallying with 2 weak basing potential CPs and D1 TL still holding. The only good DZ with a decent imbalance is lower at 1.07. Waiting on this one.

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,850
  • Jul 29, 2015 4:21am Jul 29, 2015 4:21am
Quoting 1raks1
One more attempt to enter a short position {image} {image}
H1 charts are not allowed in this thread, please read Post #1. Can you please remove your post? It goes against the rules of the thread. If you don't you will have to be banned from it. Don't take me wrong, I'm just trying to manage this as per the rules.

Thanks,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,851
  • Jul 29, 2015 5:26pm Jul 29, 2015 5:26pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} H1 charts are not allowed in this thread, please read Post #1. Can you please remove your post? It goes against the rules of the thread. If you don't you will have to be banned from it. Don't take me wrong, I'm just trying to manage this as per the rules. Thanks, Alfonso
I understand, it is heavy to me to translate everything and to understand everything correctly. Sorry.
  • #5,852
  • Jul 30, 2015 1:45am Jul 30, 2015 1:45am
Quoting 1raks1
{quote} I understand, it is heavy to me to translate everything and to understand everything correctly. Sorry.
It takes time, I know but those are the rules. Studying a career at the university, it will take longer Take your time please. Can you please remove your H1 post above?

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,853
  • Jul 30, 2015 4:35pm Jul 30, 2015 4:35pm
Hi Alfonso. First let me thank you for taking the time to start this thread. I wanted to start by asking one quick short question. I am going through post 1 and am not sure if I missed something. On page 1 you mention only taking trades based on two time frames like the H4 and weekly for example. Yet in all your webinars and most of the posts here the people are using 3-5 time frames. Can you clarify this please? Are we supposed to only look at two time frames to find our entries?
  • #5,854
  • Jul 31, 2015 12:50am Jul 31, 2015 12:50am
Quoting Stockguy
Hi Alfonso. First let me thank you for taking the time to start this thread. I wanted to start by asking one quick short question. I am going through post 1 and am not sure if I missed something. On page 1 you mention only taking trades based on two time frames like the H4 and weekly for example. Yet in all your webinars and most of the posts here the people are using 3-5 time frames. Can you clarify this please? Are we supposed to only look at two time frames to find our entries?
I first started trading Weekly and H4 imbalances but Daily was analyzed too now I am using the Monthly/Weekly/Daily sequence, you should keep on reading the thread, many things have happened since then. There are many webinars that explain the reason and how I trade mainly Daily imbalances.

In the first post there are several sequences and they all have 3 timeframes, not two.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,855
  • Jul 31, 2015 9:33pm Jul 31, 2015 9:33pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} I first started trading Weekly and H4 imbalances but Daily was analyzed too now I am using the Monthly/Weekly/Daily sequence............
Thanks for the reply Alfonso. I am very impressed with the time you take here on the free site, even though you have a paid site. I don't have much money so I am reading this free site that you put together. I have to say that at first your method seemed really easy. Now the middle time frame confuses me. I am not really sure why you use a intermediate time frame when the lower time frame and higher time frame will give you similar levels. I need to keep reading the thread to hunt down all the answers. Given things have changed since the start, do you recommend anything? Should I jump ahead and read the thread from maybe 200 forward?
  • #5,856
  • Aug 4, 2015 5:17pm Aug 4, 2015 5:17pm
Hey Alfonso. I think I might have found the best video of yours ever! I have a few questions though to make sure the info is both current and so that it is clear to me.

A. Do you still consider the "curve" still in your analysis?
B. This is a screenshot from one of your videos on page 5037. In your video you state that because all of the demand levels don't make a higher high than "A" they are just re-tests of previous levels. How do you know to use point "A" as your high point? You could look back into the past almost indefinitely and find a point higher than "A". Than "A" itself would just be a re-test. I hope you understand what I am asking. You can just about always look back to find a higher high to call the ultimate high. Do you have any rules as to why thats the "right" high? Is it because "A" is the high from the move that started from a previous higher time frame level? I marked this area in yellow. The yellow area looks like a 3 or 6 month demand zone.

Thanks
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  • #5,857
  • Aug 5, 2015 1:26am Aug 5, 2015 1:26am
I'm sorry Alfonso. I meant to say post 5037 on page 252. That is where the video is.
Thanks
  • #5,858
  • Aug 5, 2015 9:43am Aug 5, 2015 9:43am
Quoting Stockguy
Hey Alfonso. I think I might have found the best video of yours ever! I have a few questions though to make sure the info is both current and so that it is clear to me. A. Do you still consider the "curve" still in your analysis? B. This is a screenshot from one of your videos on page 5037. In your video you state that because all of the demand levels don't make a higher high than "A" they are just re-tests of previous levels. How do you know to use point "A" as your high point? You could look back into the past almost indefinitely and find a point...
The curve is ALWAYS taken into account for all trades, it's part of the rules. If price is too high, longs is not a good idea.
If there is not an opposing level that hasn't been taken out, then the potential level is considered a retest or retracement to previous level. A level needs to take out an opposing one or break a trendline in order to become a level per se. All this has to be observed on the same timeframe, without taking into account higher or lower timeframes.

Hope it makes sense.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,859
  • Aug 6, 2015 6:40am Aug 6, 2015 6:40am
Hi Mr Alfonso and traders,

here i post some trades that i have for the month,

on usd/jpy we have a bull trend , retest and brake of 123 specting to go 131. so i sold a put with a strike price at 120 with a expiration in sep 17. i win in 3 scenarios:
the price hits higher, the price do nothing and the price drops no more than 120.
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passion and discipline
  • #5,860
  • Aug 6, 2015 6:52am Aug 6, 2015 6:52am
here on gbpusd we are low in the curve in a sideways market, on weekly we have a bull trend and demmand is in control, and in daily we have a bull trend but the price is doing nothing rigth now. i have sold a put at strike price 1.53 (orizontal line) with expiration (13 aug Vertical line) so if the price does not drop to 1.53 till 13 of aug i win that trade.

this kind of trades are base on probability not direccional, but with the rules of S&D i could find some great trades. the probability of loosing is 7% more less and im making 8% a month.

have a good one and i hope you guys like it
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passion and discipline
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