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  • #9,501
  • Jul 23, 2015 4:40am Jul 23, 2015 4:40am
Investors rethink stock valuations as China, growth weigh on prospects

...
"Fewer stocks are leading the rally while more are hitting their lowest prices in a year, Thomson Reuters data show. For the year through July 17, just five companies – Apple, Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN), Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Walt Disney Co, and Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) – accounted for 61 percent of the year to date gain in the S&P 500, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices."

...
"This 'buying the dip' mentality has been so successful in the last several years, I wonder if we've got to wash that out," said Jim Paulsen, who helps manage about $350 billion as chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis.
"Maybe we go down 5 to 7 percent, people buy the dip and then it goes down another 5 percent and washes that out finally. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a 10-to-15 percent correction."
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,502
  • Jul 23, 2015 4:53am Jul 23, 2015 4:53am
Quoting StrayDog
Investors rethink stock valuations as China, growth weigh on prospects ... "Fewer stocks are leading the rally while more are hitting their lowest prices in a year, Thomson Reuters data show. For the year through July 17, just five companies Apple, Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN), Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL),...
Hi, nice article thx. Though I would say they have just read Fools and Sisses posts. Is a copyright infringment . Mentioning China in the headline, am long term bearish on Asian stocks, but PBOC has quite some firepower. Am a bit afraid how long can they manage to prevent sellof, but suppose they are trying to hold as close to US hikes as possible, as otherwise could trigger Asia panic..if it sold now and after hike.
T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,503
  • Jul 23, 2015 5:00am Jul 23, 2015 5:00am
Thinking about selling /ES futures options call spreads... like 2150/2180 and 2160/2190... for Aug and Sep monthly expiry.
Some things are very indicative, like low volume on up days - last 2 days bellow ATH... then we got bad ER's in a row from IBM, VZ, UTX, AAPL, MSFT...
Than we have as TF said - low price on /CL and falling... and just a few stocks that drag market higher.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ZB-daily.png Size: 56 KB

this is looking bullish also


addon:
with /ES @ 2112, I sold the Sep /ES fut. options 2150/2180 call spread for $10.00 CR
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,504
  • Jul 23, 2015 8:46am Jul 23, 2015 8:46am
Quoting StrayDog
Thinking about selling /ES futures options call spreads... like 2150/2180 and 2160/2190... for Aug and Sep monthly expiry.
I might have to take that leap, too - been waiting to sell into some strength ....might be hard to find
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,505
  • Jul 23, 2015 8:57am Jul 23, 2015 8:57am
Quoting The Fool
been waiting to sell into some strength ....might be hard to find
markets not buying the earnings cool-aid...........lowest unemployment claims print since 1973, housing data stronger....why is the Fed still on the emergency ffr? From here on out the freak-out over the Fed will be the underlying current to trade with/against...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,506
  • Edited 2:02pm Jul 23, 2015 11:03am | Edited 2:02pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I might have to take that leap, too - been waiting to sell into some strength ....might be hard to find
Yep... And here we go... first support for /ES could be daily sma50 around 2095... going there fast now.
I had 2 shorts today via SPX CFDs... took 5 and 3 points, scalping... good money, but nevertheless here is the "I'm a donkey feeling" now.
Holding some Naz short also.


add-on: closed Naz for profit also (4623 -> 4609 short)... nice day. /ES spread already $100 in green, holding the mofo.

-------
add-on 2: Your truly SD is on fire today... shorted the pullback on Naz for additional 4619 -> 4604 gain, oh yeah, just give me those rips...

(CFD data differs about 7 points from futures, meaning when /NQ is 4600, Nas100 CFD is 4607)
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,507
  • Jul 23, 2015 3:27pm Jul 23, 2015 3:27pm
Quoting StrayDog
Your truly SD is on fire today... shorted the pullback on Naz for additional 4619 -> 4604 gain, oh yeah, just give me those rips
good job, dawg. I got nothin'...the way things are going if I don't get a trade on at the open, b4 I go to work, it won't happen....maybe tomorrow we see some bounce action?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,508
  • Jul 23, 2015 6:33pm Jul 23, 2015 6:33pm
HOLY schmokes AMZN up $83, lessee if that will cure the commodity blues for a green Friday. I almost entered a bull call vert for Friday expiry, something like SPY $211.5/$212...but it didn't happen.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,509
  • Jul 23, 2015 6:37pm Jul 23, 2015 6:37pm
yo ZS did you IC that AMZN?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,510
  • Jul 23, 2015 7:04pm Jul 23, 2015 7:04pm
Went with an IC for AMZN play (next Friday's expiry) with the call side at 545/560; price will have to come $20 or so off of AH highs in order to make that work between now and next Friday ... . Not getting excited about having to roll it, but maybe the luck I experienced with AAPL movement post earnings will carry through to my AMZN trade and be able to lock in gains on the put side and get scratch for the call side in the next couple of days.

I looked at Dough setup's for the AMZN play; it looks like I've got company on the short call side ... .

SBUX stayed within the expected move, but that could naturally change on open ... .

In the mean time, twiddling thumbs waiting for just a little more vol to return to the indices ... . IWM has the highest IVR (Dough 6 Mo.) currently (27), DIA (27), QQQ (21), and SPY (17). Those are after hours; the breadth of the AMZN move may change the market mood tomorrow ... . May be worth slapping on a couple of IC's/short call verts in DIA and IWM. All the DIA IC's I put on during the high vol associated with the Greek nonsense have cashed out at 50% max profit; the last IWM IC could fill at 50% max tomorrow ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,511
  • Jul 23, 2015 7:12pm Jul 23, 2015 7:12pm
A DIA 182/185 short call vert (SCV) (Sept 4 expiry) goes for a .51 credit . Currently, the short put side looks unworkable to me if I'm going for a delta neutral IC setup; the lowest strike price currently is at 178.5 (.59 delta) ... . Will have to leg the put side later if I go that way ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,512
  • Jul 23, 2015 7:53pm Jul 23, 2015 7:53pm
A Sep 4 IWM 112.5/115.5/128/131 supposedly goes for a .76 credit (I'm not particularly trustful of the Dough platform after hours; does glitchy stuff).

Going to wait on any QQQ/SPY set-ups for the Sep 4 "time slot" to see what tomorrow brings ... . Could see BTFD folks get a boner lasting longer than four hours in light of AMZN earnings.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,513
  • Jul 23, 2015 7:54pm Jul 23, 2015 7:54pm
Quoting The Fool
yo ZS did you IC that AMZN?
Yeppers ... . The good thing is the short put side will end up worthless ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,514
  • Jul 23, 2015 7:58pm Jul 23, 2015 7:58pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Yeppers ... . The good thing is the short put side will end up worthless ... .
Swearin' off earnings plays (again) ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,515
  • Jul 23, 2015 8:04pm Jul 23, 2015 8:04pm
Quoting StrayDog
Thinking about selling /ES futures options call spreads... like 2150/2180 and 2160/2190... for Aug and Sep monthly expiry. Some things are very indicative, like low volume on up days - last 2 days bellow ATH... then we got bad ER's in a row from IBM, VZ, UTX, AAPL, MSFT... Than we have as TF said - low price on /CL and falling... and just a few stocks that drag market higher. {image} this is looking bullish also addon: with /ES @ 2112, I sold the Sep /ES fut. options 2150/2180 call spread for $10.00 CR
I know you may have commented about this in the past, but I can't find the darn post ... . How's the liquidity with the /ES futures options? Good as or better than SPY? Do you prefer the /ES futures options over SPY options? I know you mentioned something about the commission structure being a little more favorable ... .

A 10.00 credit ... . Me wanteee ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,516
  • Jul 23, 2015 8:23pm Jul 23, 2015 8:23pm
Quoting StrayDog
Thinking about selling /ES futures options call spreads... like 2150/2180 and 2160/2190... for Aug and Sep monthly expiry. Some things are very indicative, like low volume on up days - last 2 days bellow ATH... then we got bad ER's in a row from IBM, VZ, UTX, AAPL, MSFT... Than we have as TF said - low price on /CL and falling... and just a few stocks that drag market higher. {image} this is looking bullish also addon: with /ES @ 2112, I sold the Sep /ES fut. options 2150/2180 call spread for $10.00 CR
I've been watching TLT & /ZB a bit ... . Thinking about how this bit of bullish movement started in advance of this little downturn in equities we've had ... . The inverse correlation between, for example, SPX and /ZB isn't very clean or particularly proportional ... . Sometimes TLT spikes lag SPY dips and vice versa and the SPY dips aren't always as profound as the TLT spikes (which are seem somewhat more muted) ... .

But I suppose if you're going to flee equities, sticking some of your $ in treasuries beats sticking it under your mattress ... . Tell ya one thing, folks sure aren't fleeing into gold (currently eyeing the 1080 mark with no sign of buying interest; 1105 short-term resistance ... ).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,517
  • Jul 23, 2015 8:32pm Jul 23, 2015 8:32pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I know you may have commented about this in the past, but I can't find the darn post ... . How's the liquidity with the /ES futures options? Good as or better than SPY? Do you prefer the /ES futures options over SPY options? I know you mentioned something about the commission structure being a little more favorable ... . A 10.00 credit ... . Me wanteee ... .
here's the deal for a 1-lot /es Sep 2150/2180
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-07-23_ES.png Size: 84 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,518
  • Jul 23, 2015 8:37pm Jul 23, 2015 8:37pm
here's the comparable SPY trade - Sep $215/$218.....a 5-lot
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-07-23_spy.png Size: 81 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,519
  • Jul 23, 2015 8:41pm Jul 23, 2015 8:41pm
I don't usually look that far out, but I like the Sep SPY bear call spread idea
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,520
  • Jul 23, 2015 8:49pm Jul 23, 2015 8:49pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} here's the deal for a 1-lot /es Sep 2150/2180 {image}
Wow, quite the diff in commissions/fees ... . Profit/max loss about the same ... . Thank you very much.

Gotsta get off my arse and get privileged for futures/futures options ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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