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  • #9,481
  • Jul 21, 2015 10:42am Jul 21, 2015 10:42am
Market movers earnings tonight... AAPL + MSFT... There are also some other companies, like YHOO, CMG, GPRO and others, but these first two could move market.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,482
  • Jul 21, 2015 11:04am Jul 21, 2015 11:04am
Quoting StrayDog
Market movers earnings tonight... AAPL + MSFT... There are also some other companies, like YHOO, CMG, GPRO and others, but these first two could move market.
Boredom is my worst enemy ... . IC'd AAPL and AMZN, short strangled GPRO and SBUX.

Trying to get a Aug 28 95/99/112/116 GLD IC filled for .53 on vol spike ... .

One thing's for certain, those will work out ... or they won't.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,483
  • Jul 21, 2015 11:11am Jul 21, 2015 11:11am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Boredom is my worst enemy ... . IC'd AAPL and AMZN, short strangled GPRO and SBUX. Trying to get a Aug 28 95/99/112/116 GLD IC filled for .53 on vol spike ... . One thing's for certain, those will work out ... or they won't.
Frankly, only the AMZN IC (for 3.63) and the GPRO strangle (for 1.67) are worth it ... . Put on the AAPL IC for .64 (meh) and the SBUX short strangle for .52 ... . Really should pass on anything less than 1.00 ... .

Did manage to get out of two DIA IC's and one IWM IC for 50% max profit, which I'll take ... . Now if I can get out of those QQQ IC's, I'll be happy, but my short call strikes are at 112 and 111, so might have to wait on that ... . 31 and 38 DTE for those, so plenty of time for them to work out ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,484
  • Jul 21, 2015 11:41am Jul 21, 2015 11:41am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Frankly, only the AMZN IC (for 3.63) and the GPRO strangle (for 1.67) are worth it ... . Put on the AAPL IC for .64 (meh) and the SBUX short strangle for .52 ... . Really should pass on anything less than 1.00 ... . Did manage to get out of two DIA IC's and one IWM IC for 50% max profit, which I'll take ... . Now if I can get out of those QQQ IC's, I'll be happy, but my short call strikes are at 112 and 111, so might have to wait on that ... . 31 and 38 DTE for those, so plenty of time for them to work out ......
Yes, you should... Beware of so called "jumbotrons" stocks... Like AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL PCLN, and so on, when selling premium as ER's plays... Sure you will get vol crush, but pure delta will kill you. Estimated move on GOOGL was about $25, NOT $100... Some stocks should be avoided, OR done directionally with limited risk. I got burned 2 times on those mofo's, and believe me -> no rolling will save you on momo stocks. Not to mention that then you must have at least 5, (but more likely more) winners just to patch that hole in the account.

Congrats on yours index etfs ICs, that is the way to go.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,485
  • Jul 21, 2015 1:29pm Jul 21, 2015 1:29pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Closed the mofo for 15 points, took some on SPX also (7+ points)... Although I have a felling that I hit the trigger too early (like always), I banked 4x my day plan, so that is fine by me.
well, getting to be about closing time, maybe time to......btfd......?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,486
  • Jul 21, 2015 3:47pm Jul 21, 2015 3:47pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} well, getting to be about closing time, maybe time to......btfd......?
not this time, MSFT, AAPL & YHOO results not too hot, SPY down $0.40 in ah. I never filled SPY bear call verts today, will continue sitting on dry powder....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,487
  • Jul 22, 2015 5:09am Jul 22, 2015 5:09am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} could not pass on this earnings trade for APPL dated 20 July, long vertical put spread with a net cost of 8c taken earlier plus comms there is some distance to cover but with the Greece drama continuing that may help out, will look to do others as and when I find them and with different strikes AAPL Jul 2015 120.000 put (AAPL150724P00120000) -OPR 1.09 0.29(36.25%) 17:38 AAPL Jul 2015 119.000 put (AAPL150724P00119000) -OPR 1.01 0.32(46.38%) 17:38
still might make the above trade work on APPLE, have until Friday expiration. In addition I'm looking at a very long term strangle trade on APPLE $35 STRIKES WIDE from its position on Frlday until Jan 2017 and will sell monthly strikes to bring my costs down. APPLE is prime for for another trend move but just don't know which way and how long it may take, hoping it retraces close to $100 and then continues its long run. but to do that they need new innovation and not to rely on the Chinese market so much
  • #9,488
  • Jul 22, 2015 10:25am Jul 22, 2015 10:25am
Quoting Cecil Gee
... still might make the above trade work on APPLE, have until Friday expiration. In addition I'm looking at a very long term strangle trade on APPLE $35 STRIKES WIDE from its position on Frlday until Jan 2017 and will sell monthly strikes to bring my costs down. APPLE is prime for for another trend move but just don't know which way and how long it may take, hoping it retraces close to $100 and then continues its long run. but to do that they need new innovation and not to rely on the Chinese market so much
Hi CG. I am no expurt on AAPL, but I did try to BTFD on it today. Didn't made the trade, since I was fishing for it a bit lower...
Daily sma200 is right on $120, and I was above that, looking to grab $2.50 - 3 per share, but low was $121.12. The bounce was expected. After that -> who knows. The stock is in $122 - $133 range for 5 months.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,489
  • Jul 22, 2015 1:09pm Jul 22, 2015 1:09pm
I was holding out for one last hurrah in the indices, but the smacka on AAPL et al put that in doubt. We get into FOMC hawk noise next week and the slide for US indices may begin for real. If the Fed is gonna start raising rates then the sooner the better. Equities selloff will be easier to digest before the election year gets cranking.

Maybe a chance for a recovery into Friday, I am still sitting on hands....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,490
  • Jul 22, 2015 1:25pm Jul 22, 2015 1:25pm
Did somebody check on Jason? Mofo had a pitchfork stuck though his head - I'm pretty sure he was dead....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,491
  • Jul 22, 2015 2:40pm Jul 22, 2015 2:40pm
Quoting The Fool
Did somebody check on Jason? Mofo had a pitchfork stuck though his head - I'm pretty sure he was dead....
Hi TF.
Going down have higher probability, IMO... CL @ $49 and all...
Some stocks like GOOGL are at all time highs, some like CMG had absolutely amazing price action after initial drop on ER's... but couple of stocks isn't the whole market.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,492
  • Jul 22, 2015 3:00pm Jul 22, 2015 3:00pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Hi TF. Going down have higher probability, IMO... CL @ $49 and all
yeah I thinks so, too - I just thought we would see one more run to the limits or above in these heavy ER weeks and b4 next week's FOMC....if there will be a bounce I'd have to bet on it Thurs-Fri....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,493
  • Jul 22, 2015 5:11pm Jul 22, 2015 5:11pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yes, you should... Beware of so called "jumbotrons" stocks... Like AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL PCLN, and so on, when selling premium as ER's plays... Sure you will get vol crush, but pure delta will kill you. Estimated move on GOOGL was about $25, NOT $100... Some stocks should be avoided, OR done directionally with limited risk. I got burned 2 times on those mofo's, and believe me -> no rolling will save you on momo stocks. Not to mention that then you must have at least 5, (but more likely more) winners just to patch that hole in the account. Congrats...
Truth be told, shouldn't have done AMZN ... . Even the stuff under $50 can f you big time if there is a big earnings miss resulting in a breach of a side of your set-up, and you'll be working it off for God knows how long.

Like I said before, they either explode or work splendidly, and it really helps to have the ability to have your eyes on the screen: In GPRO yesterday at market open; out today at market open for 50% max profit on the strangle (would've gone for more, but the day job prevents me from having eyes on the screen). AAPL -- looks like it'll also work out. I'm going to pull the call side off for a .01 at market open tomorrow and the put side off for 50% max profit (fingers crossed). That'll just leave SBUX and AMZN ... .

I'm following the Market Measures segment recommendation of taking these IC's off and any verts I've got on at 50% max profit. I don't like paying the commissions, but there is some psychological benefit to just locking in those gains and moving on to something else ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,494
  • Jul 22, 2015 5:30pm Jul 22, 2015 5:30pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yeah I thinks so, too - I just thought we would see one more run to the limits or above in these heavy ER weeks and b4 next week's FOMC....if there will be a bounce I'd have to bet on it Thurs-Fri....
I would appreciate a bounce and then some vol ... . We're back to this sub-20 crap in the indices. Hoping some seeps back in as the market starts to shake in fear over a possible 25 bp rate hike in Sept ... .

And what's with the bs about no call strikes in QQQ above 116 37 DTE and none in DIA above 185 (same expiry)? Do these bulls have no faith?

(At least the SPY bulls have faith; calls available all the way up to 242.5 ... . They're not worth squat, but they're there ... .)
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,495
  • Jul 22, 2015 5:35pm Jul 22, 2015 5:35pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Truth be told, shouldn't have done AMZN ... . Even the stuff under $50 can f you big time if there is a big earnings miss resulting in a breach of a side of your set-up, and you'll be working it off for God knows how long. Like I said before, they either explode or work splendidly, and it really helps to have the ability to have your eyes on the screen: In GPRO yesterday at market open; out today at market open for 50% max profit on the strangle (would've gone for more, but the day job prevents me from having eyes on the screen). AAPL --...
Prays to the trading gods that AMZN doesn't ream me a new asshole ... . Ridiculous to be 120+ strikes wide on something ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,496
  • Jul 22, 2015 6:15pm Jul 22, 2015 6:15pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I would appreciate a bounce and then some vol ... .
I expect a weekly close green, maybe not spoos 2,130 again, but getting there - I need to get some trades on, will be looking out Aug4 SPY $217 short legs if I can, sorry I missed it early week.

new job started for me last week, easier commute, easier hours, government work, a new maze of acronyms....hoping to get back into decent volume trading soon....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,497
  • Jul 22, 2015 9:56pm Jul 22, 2015 9:56pm
HYG breaks to new low for 2015, I note divergence in TLT. I bought a Aug/Aug4 TBT $52 call calendar today for 10c, counting on the FOMC next week to bring the hawk...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-07-22_hyg.png Size: 90 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-07-22_tbt.png Size: 57 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,498
  • Jul 23, 2015 12:18am Jul 23, 2015 12:18am
will the miners recover?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-m...211012769.html
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-07-22_NEM.png Size: 56 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,499
  • Jul 23, 2015 2:50am Jul 23, 2015 2:50am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Hi CG. I am no expurt on AAPL, but I did try to BTFD on it today. Didn't made the trade, since I was fishing for it a bit lower... Daily sma200 is right on $120, and I was above that, looking to grab $2.50 - 3 per share, but low was $121.12. The bounce was expected. After that -> who knows. The stock is in $122 - $133 range for 5 months.
that is the very reason I'm going much further out in time, may wait another 8 weeks or closer to the next earnings to trade it, also looking to trade Biogen (BIIB) for Fridays earnings, stock closed at 391$ yesterday will look at single day option prices for a surprised move
  • #9,500
  • Jul 23, 2015 2:51am Jul 23, 2015 2:51am
Quoting The Fool
will the miners recover? http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-m...211012769.html {image}
looking at this too but this may take quite a while
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