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The Only Real Edge: Trading from Breakeven

  • #41
  • Edited Jul 22, 2015 2:43pm Jul 21, 2015 5:51pm | Edited Jul 22, 2015 2:43pm
Quoting Topgun_1
He says he kept track on an excel sheet for several months of the trades he exited at breakeven to see if he would lose money or make money by trading that way. He said his results showed that it ended up costing him money. He said: "The reason why is that if you're getting in for nice reward to risk trades, where youre risking (for example) 2 points to make 6 points, fine its great when you save 2 (edit: keep in mind he is a Futures trader and not a forex trader. Thus, he trades "points" instead of "pips"). But when youre wrong, you miss out on...
Topgun, i see where the problem lies with Masri's reasoning.
He is looking at the market in a 'rigid' manner! You cannot do this. Well you can, but you will not be the one who outperforms.

Here's an example:
I'm trading long CL(crude oil futures) and i get filled at 51.05 (4 contracts)
Currently the buyers are lifting the offer and we trade out to 51.12 (+7) (i have a 'reward' at 51.25)
At this stage you could say that the buyers have the advantage and letting it run out is the higher probability play. This could hit target and on the other hand, it may not!

A few minutes pass and we are getting nowhere as the seller sits on the offer working ice at 12, capping market. The sellers are aggressive too at these prices and every now and then shift bid a tick or two lower.
If you are long from 05 and see a big seller capping trade at 12 coupled with aggressive sellers, why on earth would you let that come back through entry and stop you out?
The correct and only way to trade is to trade market feedback!
That means when you're getting data (DOM) that tells you someone large is standing in front of you, then you trim longs down or hit out!
To sit there dreaming about the 'reward' (i'll get to this terrible word in a moment) when you can literally see data that negates long trade and you hitting reward, is absolutely one of the most silliest things you can do!

The only thing you should define in 'hard' terms, is your RISK! This will also change during trade, but it will move closer to zero as you trade the position(s) out.

You 'can' define REWARD, but you are burning yourself at both ends by doing it!
Anyone who works reward out prior to entry and is taking that seriously as a hard definite doesn't know how to trade market feedback and they are in effect saying:
"I know where the market is going to go!"
Nobody knows for certain where the market will end up.
You are also crushing the..."Let winners run" axiom!
(By the way, when i trade intraday i do throw limit liquidation orders out at various prices i 'anticipate' money to work, but i will constantly shift them around as the market trades. I may get some hit, i may pull others, some i push back out further to run it).
If your risk is 10c on CL and you have reward at 30c, then that is an awesome risk : reward ratio right?
Well, it is actually shit! Because 60 min later CL has traded out higher by 2 big ones, yes 2 big fat US dollars! If you had of traded market feedback, you could have extended that reward of 30c by a whole lot more.
See how you are burning yourself at both ends here?

The market is fluid and ever changing and a trader needs to trade it that way.
Enter a trade with low risk and trade feedback and see how far you can trade it out! Your 'reward' will be your END result, it's what you end up with. What determines how big your reward will be, is how well you are keyed into the market as it 'talks' to you! If you are in your own fantasy world far from reality, then it'll be likely you won't make a career out of trading.
Obviously, if you lack skill to read market correctly then you'll struggle trading feedback, because to be able to trade feedback implies that you first know what is going on!

Anyway, that was a ramble and a half.
Simply, don't impose yourself and what you want onto the market. Be good enough to respond to changes as they take place!
Work with a pencil and not a pen.
Regards
  • #42
  • Jul 21, 2015 6:06pm Jul 21, 2015 6:06pm
Quoting StopRunFx
{quote} I've seen Ziad's video, but how do you know he is very successful? He only shared some selective results in the form of a few account statements, not his full account history or equity curve . {image}
Good thread stoprunfx.
I apply these very principles daily.
But i work from the DOM, not the chart. I have charts on desktop, but i make my decisions from the data feeding through the DOM.
The charts are just a map of what HAS been going on.
The data that rolls through the DOM IS what is going on!

With regards your comment about full account history etc, keep in mind Jesse Livermore blew up! He went bankrupt.
It certainly doesn't stop traders following his methods and studying his ways. The guy was a genius who suffered depression, had an unstable personal life and admitted openly to not being disciplined enough to follow his rules of trade.
Only ask yourself if you can take something useful away from someone else's teaching/viewpoint/thought/experience etc

Keep it up!
Regards
  • #43
  • Jul 22, 2015 3:39am Jul 22, 2015 3:39am
Quoting skfx
{quote} Good thread stoprunfx. I apply these very principles daily. But i work from the DOM, not the chart. I have charts on desktop, but i make my decisions from the data feeding through the DOM.
Thanks for your notion of "market feedback"! This is exactly what I mean -- the weak and strong hands find out their worth only after they have engaged. Meanwhile, do you trade DOM for fx futures, or do you have a way to use in spot fx?
"To the busy day / To the idle play"
  • #44
  • Jul 22, 2015 6:10am Jul 22, 2015 6:10am
Quoting StopRunFx
{quote} Thanks for your notion of "market feedback"! This is exactly what I mean -- the weak and strong hands find out their worth only after they have engaged. Meanwhile, do you trade DOM for fx futures, or do you have a way to use in spot fx?
Not a problem!

Quote
the weak and strong hands find out their worth only after they have engaged.
And the smart hands will adjust quickly to a faulty trade.
They will also likewise 'press' or 'leverage' advantage when they are 'on'! If something is paying, don't get rid of it! Work it!

If i'm actively trading intraday then i ALWAYS trade off the DOM, and it doesn't matter what i'm trading, FX, energy, rates or equities. I will use a DOM!
The reason for using the DOM, is i want to locate big money as trade develops.
A chart does not give you SIZES at prices, it gives you price data points only! If i want to trade along with big money, then how am i supposed to do that safely and at low risk if i don't have the data to see where they are working over time and at what prices? I'm blind!
I also want to be able to 'leverage' a move with precision if the market is proving me correct. A chart isn't the best way to trade with precision.

The ideal situation for any trader is to reverse engineer a typical retail blowout!
What does that look like? We've all done it before but it goes like this:
You get into a trade with full position. It goes against you but doesn't stop you out and you add further, reducing your entry price.
You are still out of the money and as it trades lower/higher you trash the stop and continue to average down.
In effect what you are doing is leveraging a move AGAINST you!
All the while you spout bull*#@! to yourself about the market being crazy and this cannot possibly happen. Who is buying/selling at these levels?!

Lets now flip the above upside down to see how we can make a ridiculous amount in a day with low risk and having the intention at the start to not actually trade for that, but to trade defensively. You want to start from zero and build into the trade as it PROVES you right! (Remember, we don't know the future)
You begin by feeling the market out with smaller size at a low risk level which offers a high probability of working out in your favor.
As the market trades you will be responding to the feedback it is giving you. You have the data!
There will be times when you may get stopped out. There may be times when you get confirmation from the market that you are on a directional move and can begin to leverage that. It depends, but it's not important what it is 'going' to do. What is important, is that you are ready to RESPOND to it, as it does it!

If you can blow an account in day, you can certainly double it, no?
All you need to do is get into a position at low risk. Then as the market confirms to you that you are indeed right, you 'leverage' that move while you are on!
By doing this, not only are you letting winners run, you a leveraging those winners! And i can tell you from experience, you do that once a month and your trading problems are over!
Try to leverage a move, but make sure you are keeping it very tight downside, so you are not giving anything away!
You want to be a tight ass about this, but when you are on, you show no mercy!

Monitor your MFE/MAE's intraday I have mentioned this before on the forum.
As you go along, if you can keep your MAE very low in comparison to your MFE, then you can look forward to large rewards in reality at low risk!


I do also swing and position trade spot, but i will be working macro and sentiment.
The way i manage my position sizing is different.
I trade prices institutions will work.
I use structure only and look to buy strength and sell weakness intraday.
I am using a bigger brush, so the DOM isn't necessary, however you can still use it to pick up on prices money will be working over time to keep stops on swings tight.

Hope this helps!
Regards
  • #45
  • Jul 22, 2015 6:23am Jul 22, 2015 6:23am
Quick stupid question: What is DOM, MFE, MAE?
And how exactly do you determine when you want to take a trade?
  • #46
  • Jul 22, 2015 6:57am Jul 22, 2015 6:57am
Quoting fsm
Quick stupid question: What is DOM, MFE, MAE? And how exactly do you determine when you want to take a trade?
Hi, there are no stupid questions, only stupid answers

DOM : Depth Of Market (usually 10 lines giving you the info on the closest bid and ask prices)
MAE : Maximum Adverse Excursion (Maximum unrealized loss)
MFE : Maximum Favorable Excursion (Maximum unrealized profit)

As for the timing of your trades, i'm affraid, i'll have to let someone else answer this one
  • #47
  • Edited 9:19am Jul 22, 2015 9:05am | Edited 9:19am
Quoting skfx
but to trade defensively. You want to start from zero and build into the trade as it PROVES you right! (Remember, we don't know the future)
a very thorough presentation worth reading many times and reinforcing the point of this thread!!! Thank you skfx!

When there is a trending move as described in this post, try to imagine what is happening on every price level and DOM as well. On the DOM the dominant side is pushing the prices slowly but steadily with occasional brief pullbacks cashing every tick in its favour with fresh limit orders to re-enter, plus taking at least partial profits with limit orders a few ticks away (or even at one tick). When countertrend entries get trapped they also start looking to exit with stop or stop limit orders (and stop limit orders is something you can very clearly see on the tick flow chart -- I'll try to show how they manifest themselves in a future post), often not getting enough fills to exit without a loss. There will be pushing up and down, but micro/mini trending develops and eventually one side is flushed out, sometimes with great volatility.

When you think about it you can envision this: the dominant side is basically trading small ranges of 2-4 ticks and tries to make them trend (a trending range) and when they succeed they leave on the price ladder behind them a TRAIL of filled positions in profit working in their favour. And we're speaking here sizes that move the market, dozens or hundreds of contracts. And this is precisely why stop runs and deep pullbacks are not uncommon. These positions in profit are easy prey, too, because those who hold them will be keen to exit at market or on stop/stop limits when opposite momentum emerges. This very nicely explains what happened in EU yesterday and today. Yesterday, the long terms bears holding very very many profitable positions from higher up initiated profit-taking programmes. Fresh buyers sensed it and rode the move as well. When the HTF profit taking was over, the fresh bulls' positions in the money became the natural prey for the HTF bears, who are trying to run their stops or frighten them into market selling to unload some more profit. But make no mistake -- unlike, the average retail trader, institutional bulls are likely not holding losing positions that they bought at the very top of yesterday. They will have exited or hedged these a long time ago -- because they always play tight.

It is the retail trader's lot to walk with losing positions, and the idea of this thread is to show that this is absolutely unnecessary.
"To the busy day / To the idle play"
  • #48
  • Edited 9:22am Jul 22, 2015 9:09am | Edited 9:22am
Quoting Akh12851
{quote} Hi, there are no stupid questions, only stupid answers DOM : Depth Of Market (usually 10 lines giving you the info on the closest bid and ask prices) MAE : Maximum Adverse Excursion (Maximum unrealized loss) MFE : Maximum Favorable Excursion (Maximum unrealized profit) As for the timing of your trades, i'm affraid, i'll have to let someone else answer this one
The timing is a topic worthy of discussion. But the more I think, the more I come to believe that entry levels are somewhat important, but not all that important -- because you don't know what will happen anyway. I actually had an excellent example yesterday (did not ride the trend for lack of skill), where the entry level proves the point. Only marginally reasonable trade idea is okay to get started and get BE position -- wherever you can identify a 2-4 tick range, that is more or less feasible. Yesterday, the idea was that I saw some extra tails signalling bear profit-taking at the fresh low of the day. Took only a dozen pips or so on the initial entry, but this is not important. The important thing to know is that you need not fear to get in with small risk in a 2-4 tick range if you have a larger trade idea. Yesterday, I thought at least a test of the middle of the day's range or a break above a HOD would have been fine. You need not fear chasing trends on high/low 1 setups after a spike, you need not fear entering breakouts -- because you know that your risk is very small and mini ranges are pretty safe to play, you only need to act quick in response to what you see on the "tape" and not be distracted by fantasies about theoretical risk-reward calculated around "safer" stops. Because the real market will often prove you wrong and you needn't hold losers.
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"To the busy day / To the idle play"
  • #49
  • Jul 22, 2015 9:14am Jul 22, 2015 9:14am
Quoting Akh12851
{quote} Hi, there are no stupid questions, only stupid answers DOM : Depth Of Market (usually 10 lines giving you the info on the closest bid and ask prices) MAE : Maximum Adverse Excursion (Maximum unrealized loss) MFE : Maximum Favorable Excursion (Maximum unrealized profit) As for the timing of your trades, i'm affraid, i'll have to let someone else answer this one
MFE and MAE is what FT71 teaches and has actually incorporated in their Stage 5 platform. The idea is that your DOM/price action skill is the most important factor in practicing this approach, and the MAE will show you that you mistimed or misread something or the situation changed suddenly, alerting you immediately to refocus or step aside and not trade, even you got out with a profit or BE after a bad MAE. Meanwhile, MFE confirms to you that you're reading well and can continue trading with confidence. These are very useful self-monitoring tools. By the way, does anyone know such an indicator for open positions for MT4?
"To the busy day / To the idle play"
  • #50
  • Jul 22, 2015 9:46am Jul 22, 2015 9:46am
Quoting StopRunFx
Only marginally reasonable trade idea is okay to get started and get BE position -- wherever you can identify a 2-4 tick range, that is more or less feasible.
An entry I took just now to illustrate the point -- another marginally reasonable trade idea, a bottom wedge, two preceding 5min candles had tails, signalling two bear pushes down, which seem to fail. We also have an inside-outside-inside body setup for a breakout, so I took the breakout for two pips and set to BE. If lucky, it can go to the stops of fresh shorter term bears who are chasing today's bear trend. Unlikely, but possible. Will re-enter no more than once at a better/same price, if stopped out.

Update: re-entry was successful for another 2 pip partial profit, leaving it to run if it pleases, will not fight against a second stopout. Just an illustration of how you need not be right about the market or trade only higher timeframes or some pinbar setups in order to be in from BE+.
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"To the busy day / To the idle play"
  • #51
  • Jul 22, 2015 12:18pm Jul 22, 2015 12:18pm
Hi all, nice thread StopRunFx

Today i had a perfect example of where to exit using the DOM.
An instrument i don't trade very often with rather small volume had been pushed down for some minutes, and as i saw the bids were filled every few seconds suddenly there was a big bid block that couldn't be filled.
For example let's say the bid sizes were 5 to 10 for the last few minutes, but once it reached this lowest price there was a bid size of 30, more then 3 times bigger then normal.
It was there that price stalled and where i got out, and after that saw price come up all the way to the start of the down move.
So i can subscribe that trading using only a chart is like trading with one eye.
Persistence will get it. Consistency will keep it.
  • #52
  • Jul 22, 2015 2:38pm Jul 22, 2015 2:38pm
One problem is the most of people in order flow trading believe that big order (or big volume) can move price significantly. But, in real world, sometime, small order can move price significantly. Before, I listen tape bee. I found this problem.

Big guys algos have time slop entry (big order is cut into hundreds of small orders in a fixed time space). So, all noise is seen on DOM or volume bars.

Only at key turning point (eg. peak price zone), the volume on that price point may be useful to see if any fight continue or stop. Other times, DOM is not useful. Noise make micro-trading, scalping to be overtrading.
  • #53
  • Jul 22, 2015 2:53pm Jul 22, 2015 2:53pm
get breakeven is very good to win. but, often cause your positions to be closed too early. Fx is often noise running there, brokers want to shake you out.

get good win, then, you must get (1) entry direction is right, and (2) can hold your trade for big swing in price, and (3) entry close to a turning point for a small loss if wrong. DOM won't tell you these.
  • #54
  • Jul 22, 2015 3:25pm Jul 22, 2015 3:25pm
Quoting Chake
Today i had a perfect example of where to exit using the DOM.
Anyone please tell me how to trade DOM on spot forex . The MT4 DOM is useless bacuse it's at pipette level. Is there any DOM tool combining data at pip level?
"To the busy day / To the idle play"
  • #55
  • Edited 4:08pm Jul 22, 2015 3:28pm | Edited 4:08pm
Quoting StopRunFx
{quote} a very thorough presentation worth reading many times and reinforcing the point of this thread!!! Thank you skfx! When there is a trending move as described in this post, try to imagine what is happening on every price level and DOM as well. On the DOM the dominant side is pushing the prices slowly but steadily with occasional brief pullbacks cashing every tick in its favour with fresh limit orders to re-enter, plus taking at least partial profits with limit orders a few ticks away (or even at one...
Yes, absolutely SRFX!
We'll described.
For a move, they will load by passively working the bid/offer (making), you'll then get aggressive buying/selling (taking).
Once they've loaded they will shift it rolling through prices. As they do this they will begin to off-load. They'll work icebergs discretely or they will 'stack' limit book at STPs!
They only have to drive the market to 'stacks' to trigger the STPs resting there (they will offset immediately if there are enough resting STP orders)! They can then square or offload positions without running price against themselves.
Once they've got some off at or outside highs/lows, they'll have a crack at loading again at lower/higher prices, then again, work them off as it rises/falls.
They will continue doing this until it is becoming risky offloading.
Big money obtains amazing feedback trading size!
They 'feel' the market and all we can do through tools is 'read' the market!
But we of course are nimble and can get out at will, without cutting ourselves.

Quoting StopRunFx
{quote} MFE and MAE is what FT71 teaches and has actually incorporated in their Stage 5 platform. The idea is that your DOM/price action skill is the most important factor in practicing this approach, and the MAE will show you that you mistimed or misread something or the situation changed suddenly, alerting you immediately to refocus or step aside and not trade, even you got out with a profit or BE after a bad MAE. Meanwhile, MFE confirms to you that you're reading well and can continue trading with confidence. These are very useful self-monitoring...
FT71 is a really great guy! Anthony Giacomin also!
I was privileged enough last year when he invited me on one of his live webinars for interview(Stage 5-Convergence Tuesday).
They are one broker i use!
I cannot say enough good things about them.

I have attached my GC(XAU/Gold) stats for today.
You'll see my MFE and MAE are very tight. If you try and work to these figures while you are trading then you'll come out fairly well over the long haul.
As you mentioned too, having stats like this while trading, can alert you on any day whether you are walking the tightrope and pushing your luck!
The wisdom then is, as you also mentioned, to walk away and gather yourself! You may even sit back and ask yourself WHY your numbers are negatively skewed?
Is it the market? Is it a chop feast?
Am i being patient enough to wait till my entry price (lower risk), or am i jumping the gun unnecessarily?
Am i exiting the trade when i should, trading market feedback?

Regards
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  • #56
  • Jul 22, 2015 3:44pm Jul 22, 2015 3:44pm
Quoting Jack168
One problem is the most of people in order flow trading believe that big order (or big volume) can move price significantly. But, in real world, sometime, small order can move price significantly.
Depends on how you read it. All pro platforms have the iceberg orders function, so what you say is right -- institutions that have large orders seldom hit bid or offer at market with large volume (with the exception of funamental news perhaps), because they would move the market too much and get a poor average price. They will be entering on limit. ON ES you sometimes see unimpressive limit orders that look like they will be taken out quickly, but they get refilled as soon as a dozen or two contracts are filled on the tape. If this happens over and over and the price does not move more than a tick beyond the level and goes back quickly, this could be a sign of large order prepositioning. Once enough opposite side positions are trapped, they will start liquidating themselves quickly at market after a while, and then small volume can certainly move the price. This is just an example of what can be see and inferred from DOM. No chart will ever tell you that.

As for noise -- I'm not sure what you mean. The inside market is more or less real. Market orders are real. And inside market limit orders are more or less real because they have the immediate risk of being filled. Deeper on the DOM, yes, manipulations probably do happen, but again, the can be seen and deciphered to one's advantage, too.
"To the busy day / To the idle play"
  • #57
  • Jul 22, 2015 3:45pm Jul 22, 2015 3:45pm
Quoting Jack168
One problem is the most of people in order flow trading believe that big order (or big volume) can move price significantly. But, in real world, sometime, small order can move price significantly. Before, I listen tape bee. I found this problem. Big guys algos have time slop entry (big order is cut into hundreds of small orders in a fixed time space). So, all noise is seen on DOM or volume bars. Only at key turning point (eg. peak price zone), the volume on that price point may be useful to see if any fight continue or stop. Other times, DOM is...
That is true Jack, but there is much more to DOM reading than just analyzing volume.
If you stare at a DOM for as long as i have, then you'll see there is edge everywhere.
Volume is one of the components to trading orderflow correctly, but there are other components that can be seen through a DOM that offer just as much edge.

Orderflow must also be 'placed'.
That means when you're reading orderflow you put it in context, you place it in the auction!

Yes, absolutely agree with the over trading comment!
I see this with new DOM users all the time(i tutor guys), they try and trade every bloody blip, you cannot do that!
You must still read the auction/trade and put it together. You then use orderflow at key static levels (whether they be fixed/predetermined or built)!
If you try and put orderflow before context, trading orderflow will be the longest walk in the forest you'll ever take LOL

Regards
  • #58
  • Jul 22, 2015 4:02pm Jul 22, 2015 4:02pm
Quoting Jack168
get breakeven is very good to win. but, often cause your positions to be closed too early. Fx is often noise running there, brokers want to shake you out. get good win, then, you must get (1) entry direction is right, and (2) can hold your trade for big swing in price, and (3) entry close to a turning point for a small loss if wrong. DOM won't tell you these.
DOM gives you the data to confirm at anticipated prices Jack!
You're absolutely right though...Trading correctly is all about a bottom up approach.
Orderflow plays a part but its not the whole.

Would it be wise to trade orderflow on its own without considering CB policy/economics/rates/participant positioning if trading FX? No
When i trade FX i work:
macro/sentiment/orderflow/execution
That is a bottom up approach and its thorough! All professionals are thorough!

It is good you bring these points up Jack because they are relevant and good for discussion.
Trading orderflow off DOM is not holy grail, it's a piece of the work a trader does.

Regards
  • #59
  • Edited 3:44am Jul 23, 2015 3:31am | Edited 3:44am
Skfx, thanks a lot for your valuable comments -- please continue posting. The more we think about the market, the better we understand it.

An example of tight play now. We had a nice spike in EU today (EURUSD 5 MIN), it had already taken place when I started looking at the market. Decided to go for a high 1 chase, it worked: two entries, one out breakeven, the other 2 pip, plus 7 pip partial profits. At 7 pips I reversed to short, based on the tick chart. And again got 2 pips and 7 pips with a swing target left and now just leaving it from BE position. What made me reverse? It was a clear selling aggression on the tick flow chart. Bulls made several attempts at going higher, to no avail, then bears drove right through that range and I sold at that point.

Now it may work or not work as a swing -- the probability is very low, because the market is still always-in long, but the double top idea does have a probability of a reversal, however small. Riding from BE is okay, holding it with a 10 pip stop loss order would likely not save it if price goes at least a pip above it.
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"To the busy day / To the idle play"
  • #60
  • Jul 23, 2015 5:20am Jul 23, 2015 5:20am
An interesting phenomenon on the tick chart, which I think is stop limit orders at work. A stop limit order is an order that fx newbies don't know about. It is a type of order where once a stop is triggered, a limit order is placed at the price. E.g. I place a sell stop at 100, as soon as ask goes below 100, a sell limit order is placed at 100, and for the order to be filled buyers will have to buy at ask at 100 from below. This type of order is used when chasing a breakout to protect oneself against widening spread (as compared to an ordinary stop order, which triggers a market order). Alternatively, it is used by profit takers, who want chasers to pay them a good price.

I have an example here. This is just my speculation, and I wonder whether others would agree. Buyers drove the price up in the micro range and then we see a phenomenon where the spread strays horizontal with tiny ticking up and down. First, this signals some nervousness among positions in profit. Also, very likely those stop limit orders are taken by some fresh buyers paying profits to buyers from below and getting trapped When you see this, a good trade might be to fade further with trend breakouts (at least I find this works for me now, but I don't have stats to prove it yet -- this is just an idea, to be used at one's own risk).
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"To the busy day / To the idle play"
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