Spider's Den

USDJPY following the analysis

almost reached 124.00

I really like your analysis... keep up the good work.

Thank you!

Greek parliament approves bailout measures as Syriza fragments | Reuters
http://www.firstpost.com/world/greek...s-2344922.html

ACCURATE PP FOR TODAY AM MT4 PLATFORM - pivots based on LO open

Greece situation, BOC's interest rate cut and general safe heaven demand reflected on USDCAD pair which is breaking through important resistance levels. Adding to USDCAD rally Canada's banks also lowered their prime lending rates. Most banks lowered their prime rates by 0.3 % this year.
Technically USDCAD has broken a previous triple top 1.2805 and it is consolidating around 1.2830 at the time of the writing. Any pullback towards 1.2870-50 region could be treated as buy into dips as POC zone marks important confluence spot (DPP, L3, 50.0). The pair needs to break and close above 1.2980 to proceed towards H4 -1.3050 and further towards 1.3150. 4H close above 1.2980 is preferred. However if the momentum remains strong within the bullish context we might see a direct rise towards 1.2980 zone.
If the pair dips below 1.2805 it will be contained within NEUTRAL-to-BULLISH consolidation and will negate the possible move to he upside at this point.

USDCAD going as planned

USDCAD testing 1.3000 , EURUSD if 1.0850 breaks will target 1.0810

NZDUSD is retracing prior to RBNZ Official cash rate which is due on Wednesday 21:00 GMT. Also, mr.John Key, who is the Prime Minister of New Zealand commented that the currency has fallen too fast. However this retracement in my opinion is temporary and as always the governor of RBNZ mr.Graeme Wheeler has the final word and he is responsible for setting up NZ interest rates.
Technically the pair is still in downtrend and 0.6620 zone shows a good confluence for a fresh short. In the zone we can see a confluence of H3, 50.0, previous sellers vs now moment sellers and descending flat bottom triangle breakout point. NZDUSD should stay below the top trend line of the triangle confluence (0.6690-0.6700) for the bearish bias to remain and target is 0.6455, L3 weekly camarilla support.

Accurate Pivot Points based on LO open AM Supreme Edition platform

MY ARTICLE ABOUT GREECE CRISIS - Originally published HERE. But because i am the author of the article, I have the right to take it/copy and paste it here


"THE CANCER FROM INSIDE"


It seems as though everyone has been talking about Greece over the last couple of months and no wonder with the Greek government debt to GDP ratio at a huge 177.1 % of GDP. Government debt has averaged approximately 91.95 % over the period between 1980 and 2014.
In 2014 it reached the record high. Whilst 1980 saw a record low in this figure for Greece, according to Eurostat, with a ratio of only 22.60 %.



We have probably all read plenty official economic reports and articles about the current situation It seems as though everyone has been talking about Greece over the last couple of months and no wonder with the Greek government debt to GDP ratio at a huge 177.1 % of GDP. Government debt has averaged approximately 91.95 % over the period between 1980 and 2014.

In 2014 it reached the record high. Whilst 1980 saw a record low in this figure for Greece, according to Eurostat, with a ratio of only 22.60 % in Greece any of which have been filled with statistics and facts
But in this article we will take a look at some lesser known facts, many of which have been publicized by James Angelos a Berlin based former Wall Street Journal journalist. James is the author of "The Full Catastrophe: Travels among the New Greek Ruins" I will also add my own opinions which were formed as I travelled throughout the Greek mainland.

The book by James Angelos reveals just how much corruption has infiltrated all the pores of the Greek society- From a small island whose residents pretended to be blind in order to get a variety of benefits, to the "poor" businessmen and doctors who reported modest earnings and yet lived in the most elite districts of Athens.
The book presents us with details of the enormous tax and other frauds which devastated the Treasury. Of course, it was not Greeks who invented all of these scams but they are special in one respect.
According to the book, what separates Greece from other EU members is the amazing and rapid spread of corruption and crime in Greece even in the lowest levels of society.

THE FAKE DISABLED

One example of this rapid and pervasive spread of corruption came from the deputy Health Minister- Markos Bolaris who stated that when his ministry called for an official review of the large number of disabled applicants ( in order to determine whether they were indeed disabled)
The disabled were asked to present themselves at Government offices for assessment. Remarkably some 36.000 of these individuals did not respond to the government call.
When this particular fraud was revealed the government took swift action against those who hadn't responded to the government call. With this move the state saved itself about Euro 100 million per year, which is how much the Fake Disabled were costing the state. However this was not the most outrageous incidence of fraudulent claims.

THE ISLAND OF THE BLIND

What Angelos discovered was the tip of the iceberg. How big is the problem with similar frauds? It is not big. It is HUGE.
"The island of the blind"- not an ancient Greek myth but rather the exclusive holiday destination of Zakynthos. In the year 2011 James Angelos took a vacation here. Whilst there, he discovered the most incredible information. Out of 680 residents of the island -498 of them were registered as blind.
James probably doubted his own vision as what he saw was just incredible. The residents of Zakynthos drove their cars and almost NONE of them were not wearing spectacles, yet they were supposed to be blind?? Right?
It turned out that to be that blind in Greece entitled one to numerous benefits for example the blind received an extra 724 per month in benefits and aid, as well as many other discounts on various goods and services.
It was a scam. The government discovered the scam by sending only one ophthalmologist onto the island. "The blind of Zakynthos" cost the state almost Euro 9,000,000

PENSION FRAUD

Then there was the little problem with state pensions. The government noted a suspicious figure of 8.500 retired persons (pensioners) who were more than 100 years old. When they made a thorough search of the pension system the Government found it had almost 40,000 fake pensioners on its books. It was came to light that large numbers of people simply "forgot" to report that their family members died and continued to collect their pensions according to Angelos.

GREEK NATIONAL TOURISM ORGANIZATION FRAUD

Almost Euro 150.000 could have been stolen in an attempted fraud at EOT- the Greek National Tourism Organization.
Reportedly a woman tried to cash a cheque which bore the forged signature of the ex-general secretary of EOT. Based on bogus invoice, the cheque for Euro 147,600 was intended to be a payment for the purchase of a hotel on the island of Syros and this surely wasn't the first time for similar frauds.

A POOR COUNTRY WITH A LOT OF RICH PEOPLE TAX FRAUD

According to the data from 2011, within the Greek tax system, there are ONLY five thousand people (5.000) who earn more than ninety thousand euros (90.000) per year.
Causing The Economist magazine to describe Greece as "a poor country with a lot of rich people"
The streets are full of luxury villas with swimming pools, while the doctors and businessmen often declare earnings between just Euro 8,500 to Euro 12.500 per year (!)
Out of all of the owners of the many thousands of luxury villas in Greece just 300 of them reported that they had swimming pools and duly paid their taxes, but thanks to Google Earth, the government got slightly higher figures.

Google revealed that there were more than 20.000 villas with swimming pools which is a huge disparity between the reported (300) and actual numbers (20.000). The fraudsters responded by buying camouflage-print tarpaulins to cover up their illicit swimming pools.

It has been estimated that Greece annually loses about Euro 20 billion through various forms of fraud and tax evasion, When Angelos expressed the opinion to a state officer " that the state should be punishing thieves and scammers"- he got the answer: "It would mean that half of Greece ended up in jail "

Adding to existing problems in Greece, there is also a problem with "Golden Dawn" a neo-Nazi party whose rise to prominence was the consequence of Greece implosion. Their anti-immigrant hysteria which instilled terror in Athens and other cities won them 18 seats in Parliament in the 2012 elections.

CONCLUSION:

This article is not meant to humiliate honest people of Greece. There are many people who know what has been going on but have been powerless to do anything. Those honest and proud people suffer because of government inability (or unwillingness) to do anything radical.
Today as we could see The Greek parliament passed austerity measures in order to begin talks for a new bailout package. The package will keep Greece in EUR but the thing is that Prime Minister Tsipras might call for new elections.

Tsipras required the support of pro-european parties in order to secure the majority in the parliament.
The effect of this Tsipras move may lead to a further split among the Syriza party but there was no alternative and he knows it too.
I am about to state my opinion about possible impact if Greece exited Eurozone.
If Greece wants more sovereignty, it could leave the EUR and return to DRACHMA. I don't think that Greeks really want that as an exit could bring them more misery than good.

Since 1970 Greece really pushed hard for European Community membership. Greece grew faster than all other Eurozone nations thanks to relatively cheap borrowing which euro membership provided.
What will bring more benefit to Greece? If they choose to stay in EU, it will still remain dependent on its richer neighbors especially Germany which is the leading force in EU economy.

We must not forget UK as UK definitely wields far more influence in EU then some people might think. The threat of Grexit to UK is minor. Trade with Greece is less than 1 % of total UK exports and there are minor banking exposure.
The problem could be a domino effect as recession and credit crunch could not be avoided by UK and possibly Germany.
As I said -the direct effect of Grexit will be the adoption of new/old Greek national currency the Drachma.
The Drachma would depreciate instantly overnight but at the expense of both German and UK exports and for all those creditors who lent EUR to Greek private and public sectors.
On the contrary though an undervalued Drachma could be good for Greek exporters as cheaper currency benefits both exporters and their customer's foreign importers.
However the drawback of having a cheaper national currency is higher inflation, higher funding costs for governments and hardly any company acquisition opportunities.

If Greece had stopped paying those benefits to fraudsters and criminals alike years and years ago, things would have surely been different today. It is very sad that the country with such a vast history has allowed this to happen to itself and that all honest people in Greece suffer because of government corruption, inability or unwillingness to deal with cancer from inside.

nice stuff as allways nice suport for me ; )
apriciate thank´s T

As we could witness last week Greece agreed with austerity package and received well needed money which will keep it safe for now.Greece banks also reopened on Monday and currently we can see a weak relief rally in the pair.
Technically EURUSD is still in downtrend ( LH/LL , MACD < 0, inner trend line broken, new lows being printed ) and we need a nice rally to sell it higher. 1.0940-60 if reached could provide us with new shorting opportunities. POC comes at 1.0940-60 ( H3, DPP, 38.2, previous swing) and rejection should target 1.0770-50. Strong resistance lies around 1.1040 region as we can spot 2 trend line cross in confluence with H4 cam pivot.

Sure, you are welcome !!

it it high quality info on this thread

Great article. The main frustration with Greece is the history of missed opportunities and poor management. Look at Ireland, Portugal and Spain - all these countries received financial aid and are now seeing their economies recover (Ireland is now the fastest growing EU economy). They all took tough measures and have regained control of their policies. Compare this to Greece - now on their third bailout and an economy even further deteriorating.

As well as T's examples of corruption, bear in mind these examples of mismanagement:-

1) In 2010 Greece committed to raise EU50bn through the sale of state assets by 2019. They subsequently reduced this target to EU30bn and then EU20bn. To date they've raised less than EU3bn. Somewhat portentously, in 2013 the chief economist for then in-opposition Syriza party, said "We need to keep state ownership of all our assets - not sell them to the highest bidder". In January this year the newly elected government halted the sale of a majority stake in the port of Piraeus. So it's okay for successful economies to sell state assets but not one on the brink of bankruptcy?

2) In 2013 the then-government closed state broadcaster ERT calling it a ''''haven of waste'. Last month the government put it back on air.

3) The government refused to investigate the Lagarde list (a list of 1991 people purported to hold accounts with Swiss bank HSBC) but instead attempted to prosecute the reporter who published the list. Compare that to the UK where, in 2012, the tax authorities obtained information relating to 7000 accounts held by UK residents with Swiss bank HSBC and are using this information to pursue taxes.

I have every sympathy for those hard-working Greeks who pay their taxes and are suffering. However, I find it very difficult to find sympathy with a country that both expects yet at the same time seemingly resents the aid of other countries, a nation that generally resists austerity measures whilst harbouring widespread corruption and tax evasion, and successive governments that persistently refuse to put their house in order. What confidence can lenders to Greece have that, after this third bailout and yet another wake-up call, anything will really change for the better?

POC hit, waiting confirmation to pull trigger..

USDJPY surged up on equities jump to record highs. Adding to that there is a possibility of a rate hike in September which fueled the pair. "Turnaround" Tuesday tanked the pair and currently we see a retracement in uptrend.
Technically we might see a drop to 123.40-50 zone where we see a POC where the pair could reject. POC ( historical buyers, L4, 61.8) shows historical buying from the 123.40 zone and the pair could face with "historical vs now moment buyers" principle if the zone is reached. Target for the bounce is 124.30 and the scenario is valid only if 122.90 holds.

Thanks you! Much appreciated!

Excellent points, and a great add on to the article. As you say, i always have sympathy for the people who are paying their taxes and respect the system and the law. For all others i dont find any sympathy and those people should be prosecuted. But the problem is - there is just too many of them.

UK is one of the strongest economies in the world but also they have a tradition of respecting the laws and paying the taxes. In that respect history is also working for UK. In 2013 there was a survey in UK - "How important is respecting British institutions & laws for being truly British?" 85 % of the respondents marked it as - "imporant"