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  • #9,461
  • Jul 17, 2015 9:15pm Jul 17, 2015 9:15pm
Will the Fed Finally, omg I am not getting any younger, start to hike the ffr? Will the markets crap pants? How about a near $30 profit range under SPY $210, with 2 separate >10-bag maxP's?

Watch the P/L progression to find the approximate mid-zone peak - it's around $198-$200 about Aug2 expiry, a long shot but yet another near 10-bag maxP....

http://screencast.com/t/RHjQgX3Pu2D
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,462
  • Jul 17, 2015 9:42pm Jul 17, 2015 9:42pm
risk $160 for maxP $7k.....lol.....13c debit is a dream, but we'll see where it might fill in the coming week(s) as the ^VIX makes new lows...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,463
  • Jul 17, 2015 9:52pm Jul 17, 2015 9:52pm
long vix, damn I must be losing it,,,,
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,464
  • Jul 17, 2015 11:31pm Jul 17, 2015 11:31pm
yeah, it's low...

http://finance.yahoo.com/video/oil-5...180400482.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,465
  • Jul 18, 2015 8:55pm Jul 18, 2015 8:55pm
Quoting The Fool
yeah, it's low... http://finance.yahoo.com/video/oil-5...180400482.html
Sittin' on my hands while I ponder a couple of problematic call sides in IC's and wait for other crap to play out. Volatility will tell me when to wade back in ... . We're back to this 10 IVR shit in all the indices. I'm now more than 50% in cash with the stuff that closed out at 50% max profit last week. Glad I caught the IVR wave in many respects, but now I have to do the patience mantra for a bit.

I did go long UVXY via a short put vert at the 52 week lows (24/28 strike, Aug 7 expiry; think it was a 1.62 credit), only to have it breach that ... . Your butt/fly would have been the better set up, but I got lazy ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,466
  • Jul 19, 2015 8:35am Jul 19, 2015 8:35am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I did go long UVXY via a short put vert at the 52 week lows (24/28 strike, Aug 7 expiry; think it was a 1.62 credit), only to have it breach that ... . Your butt/fly would have been the better set up, but I got lazy ... .
long vol lotto jackpot will have some time to get bigger
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,467
  • Edited 9:17pm Jul 19, 2015 9:07pm | Edited 9:17pm
ideas
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,468
  • Jul 20, 2015 2:43am Jul 20, 2015 2:43am
Quoting The Fool
Did some small trades today, a TLT Aug1/Aug2 $114 put calendar for 12c debit, a FXI Aug $46/$46.5 call long vert for 7c debit.....
just a partial fill on the FXI vert, I will look at it again Monday. SHCOMP was only up .88% today, first time in a while it has not been up or down like >4%....maybe China stocks will settle down and just trend up...?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,469
  • Jul 20, 2015 9:57am Jul 20, 2015 9:57am
Hello Fool, CSX 33 Calls for 0.62, is it any good?
  • #9,470
  • Jul 20, 2015 11:40am Jul 20, 2015 11:40am
Quoting charron
Hello Fool, CSX 33 Calls for 0.62, is it any good?
what expiry? Just from the chart I'd say CSX will bounce above $33 again, but how long that may take is the money question if you're trading options.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,471
  • Jul 20, 2015 12:05pm Jul 20, 2015 12:05pm
I'm looking for new SnP highs this week, >$214, and then I will load up on some Aug or later short call spreads. Stronger USD, crashing wti, ffr hike on the horizon, all should limit equity upside imho.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,472
  • Jul 20, 2015 1:05pm Jul 20, 2015 1:05pm
Quoting The Fool
I'm looking for new SnP highs this week, >$214, and then I will load up on some Aug or later short call spreads. Stronger USD, crashing wti, ffr hike on the horizon, all should limit equity upside imho.
Aug4 $217.50/$220 bear calls for $0.47 now, will wait....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,473
  • Jul 20, 2015 6:02pm Jul 20, 2015 6:02pm
Continuing to sit on my hands with >50% in cash ... . Not the kind of skin I want in the game, but it's probably best that way: call side of QQQ IC's breached, one SPY IC call side breached, amazed that the IWM and DIA IC's are hanging in there short of my short call wings ... . SPY I got too aggressive; QQQ, I just didn't expect 114 to be in the short-term cards ... . QQQ movement really just boils down to f'n GOOG movement, really.

Got ripped a minor new asshole with some GLD short put verts ... . If I can get out of those at some point in the future for scratch, I'll be happy (adding some short call verts on GLD's high vol will help). In the meantime, they look like shit. Calling direction is severely overrated ... . Also, didn't expect whatever players were in the metals markets last night power dumping XAUUSD, XAGUSD, and XPTUSD.

Shit happens ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,474
  • Jul 20, 2015 8:20pm Jul 20, 2015 8:20pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Got ripped a minor new asshole with some GLD short put verts ... . If I can get out of those at some point in the future for scratch, I'll be happy (adding some short call verts on GLD's high vol will help). In the meantime, they look like shit. Calling direction is severely overrated ... . Also, didn't expect whatever players were in the metals markets last night power dumping XAUUSD, XAGUSD, and XPTUSD. Shit happens ... .
well, been lotsa pain to go around it seems, but I am still a baller. That gold dump gave us some IVR poppee on GLD, so I might chance something like a double diagonal....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,475
  • Jul 20, 2015 8:37pm Jul 20, 2015 8:37pm
Quoting The Fool
That gold dump gave us some IVR poppee on GLD, so I might chance something like a double diagonal....
..or maybe bet against a bounce with a super bear bfly
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,476
  • Edited 2:30am Jul 21, 2015 1:56am | Edited 2:30am
the Sep FOMC is a day b4 the Sep monthly op-ex
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,477
  • Jul 21, 2015 9:23am Jul 21, 2015 9:23am
NQ @ resistance... was there yesterday... Almost straight up move of 350 points. It has to give some. AAPL, TSLA, FB, negative so far.

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I am short.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,478
  • Jul 21, 2015 9:58am Jul 21, 2015 9:58am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Aug4 $217.50/$220 bear calls for $0.47 now, will wait....
contemplating Aug4 SPY $217/$219 bear for $0.42....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,479
  • Jul 21, 2015 10:17am Jul 21, 2015 10:17am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} contemplating Aug4 SPY $217/$219 bear for $0.42....
a little btfd action for the 2nd 1/2 of the day & it might fill...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,480
  • Jul 21, 2015 10:25am Jul 21, 2015 10:25am
Quoting StrayDog
NQ @ resistance... was there yesterday... Almost straight up move of 350 points. It has to give some. AAPL, TSLA, FB, negative so far. {image} I am short.
Closed the mofo for 15 points, took some on SPX also (7+ points)...
Although I have a felling that I hit the trigger too early (like always), I banked 4x my day plan, so that is fine by me.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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