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Discovering An Edge

  • #761
  • Jul 17, 2015 4:05am Jul 17, 2015 4:05am
close AN, GN, EN, Ncad shorts....combined +119...Ncad was long...
  • #762
  • Jul 17, 2015 4:08am Jul 17, 2015 4:08am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} You gotta love it when you go away for a meeting and come back and find winning positions in the red and some stopped out. GBPAUD -50 GBPCAD -50 Grrr
Need to be careful shorting what has been the strongest and weakest all week on Friday. Usually tends to have a pullback due to profit taking. In addition there are CAD numbers at 8:30 EST..... Hence the profit taking ahead of the numbers.
  • #763
  • Jul 17, 2015 4:08am Jul 17, 2015 4:08am
back to British open until top of hour after numbers.
  • #764
  • Jul 17, 2015 4:18am Jul 17, 2015 4:18am
Quoting panamamike
{quote} Need to be careful shorting what has been the strongest and weakest all week on Friday. Usually tends to have a pullback due to profit taking. In addition there are CAD numbers at 8:30 EST..... Hence the profit taking ahead of the numbers.
No, definitely not shorting GBP... still long biased. But you're right about the profit taking. I guess I was too overconfident to move my stops to be BE just before I went off screen.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #765
  • Jul 17, 2015 4:23am Jul 17, 2015 4:23am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} No, definitely not shorting GBP... still long biased. But you're right about the profit taking. I guess I was too overconfident to move my stops to be BE just before I went off screen.
Ahhhhh....I meant be careful looking for trend continuation on strongest vs weakest all week in Friday. I.e. GBp been the strongest and CAD and NZD the weakest this week. In CAD case, especially with important inflation numbers due this morning. Some squaring of positions was highly likely IMO.
Personally, although my BIAS is up for GBP as well, I will selectively short it especially like today vs NZD, as it strengthened across the board...provided all my signals line up. I also trade a smaller size in those cases.
  • #766
  • Jul 17, 2015 4:44am Jul 17, 2015 4:44am
Quoting panamamike
{quote} Ahhhhh....I meant be careful looking for trend continuation on strongest vs weakest all week in Friday. I.e. GBp been the strongest and CAD and NZD the weakest this week. In CAD case, especially with important inflation numbers due this morning. Some squaring of positions was highly likely IMO. Personally, although my BIAS is up for GBP as well, I will selectively short it especially like today vs NZD, as it strengthened across the board...provided all my signals line up. I also trade a smaller size in those cases.
Gotcha!

In light of that, I had a look at the 4H and I think the price action structure supports that from a GBP perspective.
I won't be shorting myself. But it makes sense.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD-4H.JPG Size: 208 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD-4H.JPG Size: 210 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #767
  • Jul 17, 2015 6:23am Jul 17, 2015 6:23am
long UChf, CAD chf, short audCAD, audusd
  • #768
  • Jul 17, 2015 6:30am Jul 17, 2015 6:30am
short ecad 1.4092
  • #769
  • Jul 17, 2015 6:39am Jul 17, 2015 6:39am
Quoting panamamike
short ecad 1.4092
Breakout of the 1/2 hour did you say yesterday?
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #770
  • Jul 17, 2015 6:46am Jul 17, 2015 6:46am
Got sick of getting stopped out today, so loaded up on UCAD as my only open trade to get back what I've lost. Stops tighter than a fish's ass.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #771
  • Jul 17, 2015 6:49am Jul 17, 2015 6:49am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Breakout of the 1/2 hour did you say yesterday?
Yes...with strength etc.
  • #772
  • Jul 17, 2015 6:54am Jul 17, 2015 6:54am
Quoting vlady1974
Got sick of getting stopped out today, so loaded up on UCAD as my only open trade to get back what I've lost. Stops tighter than a fish's ass.
Not sure why you chose that pair to load up on. CAD strengthening on both my CSMs. I have three CAD longs actually...vs aud, chf, and EUR.
  • #773
  • Jul 17, 2015 6:54am Jul 17, 2015 6:54am
Quoting panamamike
{quote} Yes...with strength etc.
I wasn't watching ECAD but when you mentioned it and I had a look, as I said yesterday - your signals seem to match setups that my strategy gives with respect to trendline breakouts. Here's what I mean.... note that projection from the TL (14039)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD-15M.JPG Size: 148 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #774
  • Jul 17, 2015 6:57am Jul 17, 2015 6:57am
Quoting panamamike
{quote} Not sure why you chose that pair to load up on. CAD strengthening on both my CSMs. I have three CAD longs actually...vs aud, chf, and EUR.
That was a pure scalp trade... ie. not following my main strategies. Very very very rare for me to do now... but I was just frustrated from the whiplash.
That trade closed out via SL @ +67 (incl position size). So I'm kinda okay with it.

Am switching back to normal strategies... but actually may consider remaining flat for the day especially going into Friday London close. Will check next week's calendar now to see what opportunities abound next week.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #775
  • Jul 17, 2015 6:59am Jul 17, 2015 6:59am
interesting, but sort of expected. I honestly think it does not matter what ya use, they all tell the same story.
  • #776
  • Jul 17, 2015 7:02am Jul 17, 2015 7:02am
short AU .7372
  • #777
  • Jul 17, 2015 7:18am Jul 17, 2015 7:18am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} That was a pure scalp trade... ie. not following my main strategies. Very very very rare for me to do now... but I was just frustrated from the whiplash. That trade closed out via SL @ +67 (incl position size). So I'm kinda okay with it. Am switching back to normal strategies... but actually may consider remaining flat for the day especially going into Friday London close. Will check next week's calendar now to see what opportunities abound next week.
Happy it all worked out my friend...
  • #778
  • Jul 17, 2015 7:31am Jul 17, 2015 7:31am
long GN at 2.39
  • #779
  • Edited 7:53am Jul 17, 2015 7:39am | Edited 7:53am
1/2 off GN long +25
Looking for 2.0980 area for second half....
  • #780
  • Jul 17, 2015 8:04am Jul 17, 2015 8:04am
L GU at 1.5632
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