Expo33's Harmonic Trading Journal

Reference Charts

Almost one year away from the screen after having to deal with a family situation. I am extremely excited to get back in the game.

Monday Grexit shock wave noise , chart harmonics null and void

Looking for continued NZ weakness on deteriorating dairy prices coupled with BOJ rhetoric implying economy showing signs of steady but slow recovery with inflation objectives heading in the right direction.

Grexit debacle looming adding possible fuel to the fire pushing Yen as safe haven.

Short @ 82.45

SL @ 83.25 ( 80 PIPS )

TP @ 80.65 ( 180 PIPS )

Closed positions for a 23 pip gain. Decided not to hold over the weekend with Grexit vote. Will re-evaluate after the weekend

Target hit but as usual I bailed out early fearing a reversal and losing my profits instead of trusting my chart and analysis.

Simple high risk/reward trade

#1) Short term 4H TL rejection
#2) Weekly pivot multiple rejections
#3) Classic shallow retracement into strong downtrend

Fundamentally NO reason to be buying Kiwi. Grexit uncertainty, Chinese market fiasco, Dairy prices likely dropping even further

Short @ .6747 with tight SL @ .6760

TP1 @ .6703
TP2 @ .6655

Hourly candle close below weekly pivot 7 times

Stopped out for -15 pips on Grexit proposal, re-entered short @.6767

Trade still valid for me regardless of temporary spike still NO reason to buy Kiwi

Simple short term scalp/bounce method I have been testing. Looking for price to touch the 50,100, or 200 SMA in 2 out of 3 time frames in addition to being close to or near the 30-70 area on the RSI(9). Looking to make 20-60 pips depending on which time frames meet the 2 out of 2 criteria. SL's and TP's are adjusted according to the time frames.

Below is an example where all 3 time frames meet this criteria which I have found isn't very common.

15MIN price meets the 200SMA
30MIN price meets the 100SMA
1HOUR price meets the 50SMA

15MIN is the lowest time frame used up to the 4H

For example when the 15MIN time frame is in play the SL might be 10 pips with a TP of 20 pips
For example when the 4HOUR time frame is in play the SL might be 20 pips with a TP of 40 pips

Of course if the bounce occurs SL can be moved to BE for a free run at a winner, there is some flexibility as always when considering time frames, SL's and TP's but the basic triggers of 2 out of 3 touches plus the RSI condition must be met first for a trade to be initiated

NOTE: RSI condition of touching 70 isn't necessary for 4H TF as this strategy is based on short term bounces after fairly strong price movement, NOT on long term trend reversals. It is more likely that 70-80 RSI level will be touched for the smaller TF's (1H and less)

Result:

The 10 pip SL in this instance was never even challenged. The initial bounce was roughly 28 pips so a 20 pip TP would have have been perfectly effective.

Tracking this set up into Sunday's open - CAD/CHF

4H approaching 50SMA
1H approaching 200SMA

Note: SL/TP will be higher due to higher time frame. For example 15/30 or 20/40

Also, 4H RSI not at 70 level as on the 1H TF but ok for entry as these are short term bounces not necessarily long term trend reversals. It is more likely RSI will hit 70 level for 1H TF's and smaller as these bounces are based on fairly strong short term price movement towards the respective SMA's

Another set up I am tracking for Sunday open - UJ

15MIN = 200SMA
30MIN= 100SMA
1HOUR = 50SMA

Here is a classic example from GJ the dragon that behaved perfectly

30MIN = 200SMA
1HOUR = 100SMA

An example for CAD/JPY, price literally stopping with pin point precision on different SMA's on different TF's

15MIN = 100SMA
30MIN = 50SMA

Another example for EUR/GBP with 3 TF''s matching the respective SMA's

15MIN = 200SMA
30MIN = 100SMA
1HOUR = 50SMA

Seems to work especially well when there is a strong price move from a news blip, in this instance NZ's PM blabbering on about a particular Kiwi level

30MIN = 200SMA
1HOUR = 100SMA

Hi, expo:

How r u doing! I know this is an old journal, but I notice you trade harmonics alongside Wolfe wave (I got to know you from Wolfe wave thread). I just recently started looking into harmonics and I had a question, hope you can shed some light on it. Thx.

What if there are many harmonic patterns on one chart, e.g. Gartley, crab bat butterfly ab=cd, etc (big and small, with different PRZs high and low), what would be your thought process of choosing which pattern to trade?

Thank you for your time!

Shuo