Hedge Fund Styles Trading - Long and Short Term Setups

Potential Daily Watchlist:

Update at 12:25pm CST



1.- USD/JPY, M30TF - Market BIAS : Bullish
2.- GBP/CHF, M30TF - Market BIAS: Bullish
3.- EUR/GBP, M30TF - Market BIAS: Bearish
4.- GBP/JPY, M30TF - Market BIAS: Bullish

1.- USD/CHF, M30TF - Market BIAS: Bullish
2.- EUR/USD, M30TF - Market BIAS: Bearish
3.- CAD/CHF, M30TF - Market BIAS: Bullish
4.- EUR/CAD, M30TF - Market BIAS: Bearish

Note:
Market BIAS can change at any given moment depending on the Momentum of a particular pair, so it's best
to wait for a Trigger Signal, and from that point on you can start building a case for Entries.

USD/JPY Insight:

4Hourly TF:


M30TF:



Note: If Bullish Momentum stays, this is what I am looking at, and I would like to see this thing happens.

GBP/CHF Insight:



Note: Market BIAS is Bullish, but I am very convinced that this pair is going to reverse at some point.
- The Bearish Gartley is an Indication of a potential Bear Momentum
- We have UK CPI Tomorrow(Tuesday), this might change the picture unless CPI comes out positive.

EUR/GBP Insight:




Note:

EUR/GBP has a tendency to move in the Opposite Side of GBP/CHF....Just Pick One Pair and follow it.....
If EUR and GBP are becoming BEARISH, just stay away from EUR/GBP, but focus only on GBP/CHF setup....
Now, if GBP/CHF decides to go Down, I am expecting 0.70850 to hold and Hopefully EUR/GBP might go UP.

GBP/JPY Insight:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Note:
I didn't want to expose myself too much, but I was SHORT on GJ - EJ - EU - GU this morning...I did close 2
of them for quick profits, but EJ and GU are still OPEN.....Right now, I need more Bearish Evidence and Confirmation
to go Short on GBP/JPY...
I don't like to risk more than 40pips on them Trades...I would prefer a better SellEntry or wait for UK CPI tomorrow to
determine the Ideal Trend for the rest of the week....

USD/CAD – BoC Loonie Question: Cut or No Rate Cut?

 

1. BoC Rate Cut on the table: 30% priced in
2. Commodity currencies continue to underperform
3. If no cut, market seeks BoC rate guidance
4. Poloz cannot rely on a Fed’s rate hike

The market calls for a possible Bank of Canada (BoC) rate cut this Wednesday seems to be
getting a tad louder. A percentage of the street are raising the possibility that Governor Poloz
will cut the BoC’s policy rate by -25bp amid signs that the Canadian economy has not found
any notable traction following lower crude prices and an impromptu rate cut last January
from the bank for “insurance purposes.”

The CAD ($1.2760) has had a torrid time of late, and is even finding it difficult to find some risk
on traction already this week, and this despite the markets positive response to Greece’s
‘last chance’ proposal.

Currently, fixed-income traders are pricing in a 100% chance of a -25 basis points cut by October (51.3),
and they’re now starting to price in another cut in December (47.5), albeit a small chance.
But the calls for moving further up the curve could be justified.

Read More:

USD/CAD Insight:

Wednesday is going to be CRAZY for Canadian Dollar...

Here's what I am looking at.

Interesting!!!

I was expecting more CRAZY Action on USD/CAD, but it looks like the pair wasn't phazed that much
by the Rate CUT.....I do believe there's still room for this thing to go Higher, but I would prefer a small
Bearish Retracement to manage my risk aversion.....

Anyway, keep your eyes open on this pair, and the next rate statement is going to be around Sept 9th,
which means this pair is going to find its way through Oil Price volatility and USD Strength....

I do not know how bad the Canadian Economy is but, according to the report, Canada's Economy is
undergoing a significant and complex adjustment. Additional Monetary Stimulus is Required at this time
to help return the Economy to Full Capacity and Inflation sustainably to target...

That piece of information alone is telling that things will get worse before its get better for the Canadian Dollar,
and as long as the CAD Currency maintains its weakness, we should be focused on LONG Trade Only, and
maybe buy every short-term pullback with decent Stop-Loss.

Take a look at the Monthly Chart, there won't be much of a fight if the Market wants to test 1.35 (61.8% Fib), and
1.47 (78.6% Fib Level) 3-6 months from now:

JAY your thread is great and your analysis is spot on. Your trendline, similar to the way I trade. Nice

Hi Jay

Could u please comment on the set up please...

1. There is divergence
2. Deep Bar indicator has turned to red
3. Mega trend turned to red
4. NPCP looks to go downwards
5. BuySell indicator shows a sell arrow.
6. Break of the small trendline.

The only thing I see that could stop the progress is the Green Strike Level.
The other issue is that its not one of the pairs in the top 8 trending Indicator.

Appreciate the support!!! We must be doing something Great mate!!!

Hey Dennis,

I apologized for getting back to you as of right now, I went to play Soccer Last night and was too tired to
check my messages after.....Well, since this Setup has been fulfilled; I am very certain that you were right on the
money if you used proper Stop-Loss (Note: A Few Pips above the Highest High would make this trade a Success)

WOaw! That was close to 200pips overnight move mate....Did you get any of that move?

Yes! It wasn't on the top 8 but at a certain moment during the day (yesterday) GBP was the Strongest on the
Supreme Meter Scale and lost momentum during the Asian Session...I did get a Similar Bearish Setup
on GBP/USD, and I was waiting for more Bearish Evidence....

You did pick the right Pair and I salute you for that.....If you train your eyes to see more setups like this, you will do
just fine and be more keen to potential movement in this market.

After The Bailout Vote:

Europe moved to re-open funding to Greece's stricken economy on Thursday after the parliament in
Athens approved a new bailout program in a fractious vote that left the government without a majority.

The European Central Bank increased emergency funding for Greek lenders, although capital controls
will have to remain to avoid a bank run when they reopen on Monday.

European Union finance ministers also approved 7 billion euros ($7.6 billion) in bridging loans to keep
Greece afloat, allowing it to make a bond payment to the ECB next Monday and clear its arrears with
the International Monetary Fund.

The loans will be finalised on Friday provided Germany's parliament approves a Berlin government
request to open talks on a three-year bailout program - Greece's third in the past five years - worth up to
86 billion euros.

Last Update on my prediction:

There's still room for EUR/USD to go further down....We are getting closer to the PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone)....

Amazing Things happen when the Planets align....I would like to see EUR/USD reverses to the upside once it tests
that level, but I have no ideas where that positive news will come....

For right now, I will stay Bearish, and add small positions at time until I get stopped out.....If that Bullish Pattern fails,
EUR/USD will definitely reach Parity by the end of the Year....

Most definitely

Hi Jay

To be honest it was just a paper trade...yeah it was an awesome move though...the probability for that trade to work was really good as there was divergence, triple top, NCP, Mega Trend, Deep bar, Buy n Sell arrow and the break of the trend line all were in agreement. Like u said nothing is guaranteed and momentum and strength keeps changing. All we can do is stack the probabilities on our side. if its not there then we don't pull the trigger.

Thanks again for the input Jay.

Regards

Dennis

This 1 didn't work out??

This was in the top 8 trending pairs.
The deep bar indicator was in agreement.
Ncp indicator was gaining momentum
Mega Trend was in support
There was a break of minor trend line.
Buy N sell was in play

What I didn't see was any major divergence.

Well some work some don't.

Not every trade is going to work, but the most important thing is to take every setup that matches
your Rules of Engagement so that you can have a clear mind; and learn from your winners, and your losers.

Last Wednesday, Bank of Canada decided to cut its rate, and clearly CAD was definitely weaker...So now having
a pair like CAD/JPY should have triggered a Bearish BIAS in your mind, unless you have a different story on
that Supreme Meter Scale Indicator.

Anyway, keep testing the system like this, and hopefully your decision making will be a lot clearer, and your confidence level
will grow in no time....I do have bad days when I am not patient enough and I always appreciate the market for exposing
my impatience, and gives me reasons to be more disciplined no matter what.

Thanks for posting them charts Dennis...I hope that other traders will see the process behind every trade here from someone
else perspective...As long as the probability is in your side 70-85% at a time, you can't be a loser in this Market.....

Hope you have a great weekend mate!!!

Next week is going to be a New Week...Let's make some Profits!!!

Jay

ECONOMIC DATA and Weekly Watchlist: (July 20th - July 24th,2015)

High Impact/Medium Impact News (Central Time) :


Monday, July 20th

7:30am CST..................CAD.................Wholesale Sales

8:30pm CST...................AUD................Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes


Tuesday, July 21st

1:00am CST..................CHF.................Trade Balance

3:30am CST..................GBP..................Public Sector Net Borrowing

8:30pm CST..................AUD..................CPI / Trimmed Mean CPI

10:05pm CST................AUD...................RBA Gov. Stevens Speaks


Wednesday, July 22nd

3:30am CST.................GBP.....................MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
....................................GBP.....................MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes

9:00am CST.................USD.....................Existing Home Sales

9:30am CST.................USD.....................Crude Oil Inventories

4:00pm CST.................NZD.....................Official Cash Rate (OCR)
....................................NZD.....................RBNZ Rate Statement

6:50pm........................JPY......................Trade Balance


Thursday, July 23rd

2:00am CST...............EUR......................Spanish Unemployment Rate

3:30am CST................GBP.....................Retail Sales

7:30am CST.................CAD....................Core Retail Sales / Retail Sales

....................................USD....................Unemployment Claims

9:30am CST.................USD....................Natural Gas Storage

5:45pm CST..................NZD...................Trade Balance

8:45pm CST.................CNY.....................Market Flash Manufacturing PMI


Friday, July 24th

2:00am CST..................EUR......................French Flash Manufacturing PMI

2:30am CST...................EUR....................German Flash Manufacturing PMI

3:00am CST....................EUR...................Flash Manufacturing PMI

8:45am CST...................USD...................Flash Manufacturing PMI

9:00am CST...................USD...................New Home Sales



Potential Pairs (Watchlist ):

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

USD/CAD - AUD/USD - GBP/CHF - GBP/USD

GBP/AUD - NZD/USD - GBP/NZD - EUR/USD

EUR/GBP - USD/JPY - EUR/CAD - EUR/NZD

AUD/NZD - EUR/JPY - AUD/CAD - EUR/AUD

USD/CAD Insight:


AUD/USD Insight:


GBP/CHF Insight:


GBP/USD Insight:

GBP/AUD Insight:


NZD/USD Insight:


GBP/NZD Insight:


EUR/USD Insight: