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Discovering An Edge

  • #581
  • Jul 10, 2015 10:31pm Jul 10, 2015 10:31pm
Quoting vlady1974
GBPUSD Daily Possible start of Wave 3? {image}
Im watchigg this closely vlad, remember i exited GU longs to wait for my valid system entry
  • #582
  • Jul 11, 2015 7:42am Jul 11, 2015 7:42am
Quoting vlady1974
GBPUSD Daily Possible start of Wave 3? {image}
Cant help commenting on this set up again. I have been waiting for this since i exited my longterm GU longs hoping to get better prices. 1.6855 is a possible longterm target but we gon take the pips up and down day by day little by little till we get there hopefully. will be looking for my entries on pull back.
Seems we are going to be in sync in our trades like the good old days. I remember someone on one of the old threads saying if ephisi makes a call and vlady1974 makes the same call you better not bet against them both. Lol. It was fun
  • #583
  • Jul 12, 2015 1:06pm Jul 12, 2015 1:06pm
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A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #584
  • Jul 12, 2015 2:46pm Jul 12, 2015 2:46pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} Cant help commenting on this set up again. I have been waiting for this since i exited my longterm GU longs hoping to get better prices. 1.6855 is a possible longterm target but we gon take the pips up and down day by day little by little till we get there hopefully. will be looking for my entries on pull back. Seems we are going to be in sync in our trades like the good old days. I remember someone on one of the old threads saying if ephisi makes a call and vlady1974 makes the same call you better not bet against them both. Lol. It was...
GBPUSD:
I would remain cautious here until ANY move is confirmed. Any close below 1.5432 and 1.5333 invalidates the Long Bias.
The risk is that the market may range, which will sucker both Longs and Shorts.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #585
  • Jul 12, 2015 3:16pm Jul 12, 2015 3:16pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} GBPUSD: I would remain cautious here until ANY move is confirmed. Any close below 1.5432 and 1.5333 invalidates the Long Bias. The risk is that the market may range, which will sucker both Longs and Shorts. {image}
I think there's more opportunity with GBPAUD but I will probably wait until London open.
The 15M after open tonight looks quite promising on a short time scale if one wanted a punt. I'll skip.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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GBPJPY Hourly also gapped lower but is closing up. 188.62 is the support limit - this has to hold for Long Bias to remain intact.
On the 4H, it's still on the balance. Price is under all long term averages and 190.867 is the final price to hold for Short bias.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #586
  • Jul 12, 2015 3:32pm Jul 12, 2015 3:32pm
FX Boards are showing BUY signals for GBPAUD which is a positive signal.
Here's my projection from the 1H trendline break. However, the white horizontal line is a projection from an old Weekly TL which has been reached. When these projections are hit, price nearly always reverses. Hence why I am cautious. If the white line breaks, then the projection stands and I will go Long.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD-1H.png Size: 138 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #587
  • Jul 12, 2015 11:21pm Jul 12, 2015 11:21pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} GBPUSD: I would remain cautious here until ANY move is confirmed. Any close below 1.5432 and 1.5333 invalidates the Long Bias. The risk is that the market may range, which will sucker both Longs and Shorts. {image}
Youre right mate. I will be cautious. Price action will guide me
  • #588
  • Edited Jul 13, 2015 1:12am Jul 12, 2015 11:28pm | Edited Jul 13, 2015 1:12am
Quoting TooSlow
"I can see the higher edge within a single candlestick and the future candlestick. I can see where the higher probabilities lies within a single candlestick and the future candlestick." "95% of the time price will close above or below the open." Amateurs will never see the edge in this quote, unless a professional point it out where the edge lies within this quote." {image} Histogram shows high minus open and low - open. This is the "edge".
The histogram here shows and re-confirms, errrr again, that divergence is a VERY strong basis for developing an edge. Divergence is the stretch of an elastic band from its normal or "average" behaviour. It's measurement can therefore provide a means for entering probabilistic trades rather than expectancy based trades.

There is a further edge I can see being developed from this but it's more advanced and is not required in order to start earning serious pips. Eg, there is a relationship to be extracted from pip range that triggers the move and also session times.

But the main idea I've seen from this which is worth putting in my journal is... How different is this idea from your common moving average? From a trade able edge perspective.... None.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #589
  • Jul 12, 2015 11:46pm Jul 12, 2015 11:46pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} I think there's more opportunity with GBPAUD but I will probably wait until London open. The 15M after open tonight looks quite promising on a short time scale if one wanted a punt. I'll skip. {image} {image} {image} GBPJPY Hourly also gapped lower but is closing up. 188.62 is the support limit - this has to hold for Long Bias to remain intact. On the 4H, it's still on the balance. Price is under all long term averages and 190.867 is the final price to hold for Short bias. {image} {image}
Asia has brought this lower, which is good. 15M and 1H tf approaching 50Ema and 100 Ema where I would observe bounce characteristics for potential entry or not.
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A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #590
  • Edited 1:06am Jul 13, 2015 12:47am | Edited 1:06am
Missed the impulse, but it blew past last COBB swing high so she's going north.
Long @ 20910
Edit: Another Long @ 20916
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #591
  • Jul 13, 2015 1:15am Jul 13, 2015 1:15am
Here we go with the EURUSD. Impulse wave on the 5M. I want "one last kiss". Any line will do: 11100, 11109
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #592
  • Jul 13, 2015 1:18am Jul 13, 2015 1:18am
Quoting vlady1974
Missed the impulse, but it blew past last COBB swing high so she's going north. Long @ 20910 Edit: Another Long @ 20916
Bugger. Stopped out +15
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #593
  • Jul 13, 2015 1:19am Jul 13, 2015 1:19am
Quoting vlady1974
Here we go with the EURUSD. Impulse wave on the 5M. I want "one last kiss". Any line will do: 11100, 11109
Pending Short @ 11058

Edit: Moved to 11064. I will keep shifting this up as I get closer to the kiss of death. DAX has moved 141 pips UP... that is a barometer here for the EUR. If both do end going UP... that has to be Dollar driven on the EURUSD for some other trigger. YEN was an interesting mover this early morning. But since I'm an amateur without order flow access or expensive news feed - i have no idea.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #594
  • Jul 13, 2015 1:31am Jul 13, 2015 1:31am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Bugger. Stopped out +15
Re-entered with 1 Long @ 20920, target 20986
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #595
  • Edited 2:54am Jul 13, 2015 1:33am | Edited 2:54am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Pending Short @ 11058 Edit: Moved to 11064. I will keep shifting this up as I get closer to the kiss of death. DAX has moved 141 pips UP... that is a barometer here for the EUR. If both do end going UP... that has to be Dollar driven on the EURUSD for some other trigger. YEN was an interesting mover this early morning. But since I'm an amateur without order flow access or expensive news feed - i have no idea.
EURUSD:
Triggered: Short Stop moved to 11073 (2 pips below bar low) and it probably wasn't a good idea. LOL. I will have to fade this or take the hit at SL -20, either way, it's a trading cost.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #596
  • Edited 2:52am Jul 13, 2015 2:13am | Edited 2:52am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Re-entered with 1 Long @ 20920, target 20986
GBPAUD:
Bugger, keep getting stopped out -30.
Re-entered @ 20902.9, SL-50, target 20986

Edit 1: SL to BE

Edit 2: SL to 20941
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #597
  • Jul 13, 2015 2:23am Jul 13, 2015 2:23am
L GJ 192.06
  • #598
  • Edited 2:53am Jul 13, 2015 2:29am | Edited 2:53am
Quoting panamamike
L GJ 192.06
lol. Great minds yadda yadda....

Edit 1:
GBPJPY: Long @ 19213, Target 19427

Edit 2: SL to BE
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY-5m.JPG Size: 152 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #599
  • Jul 13, 2015 2:33am Jul 13, 2015 2:33am
1/2 off +20
  • #600
  • Jul 13, 2015 3:09am Jul 13, 2015 3:09am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} lol. Great minds yadda yadda.... Edit 1: GBPJPY: Long @ 19213, Target 19427 Edit 2: SL to BE {image}
GBPJPY: Long Stopped out +0
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
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