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Silent Service Method

  • #15,341
  • Jul 3, 2015 7:47pm Jul 3, 2015 7:47pm
Gold markets formed a hammer on Thursday, but then tried to break out above it on Friday. There wasn't much in the way of volume obviously, as the Americans are celebrating Independence Day. Now that we have this set up, I think that a break above 1170 should offer a short-term move to 1190 possibly.

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  • #15,342
  • Jul 6, 2015 10:30am Jul 6, 2015 10:30am
CW when i try to find a signal on 4H charts they seem to be much less reliable than Daily signals. After looking for Weekly S/R, trend, etc.. If i go down to 4H chart i find it a bit "noisy" so i doubt a lot before pulling the trigger.

Could you give me some advice on this? How do you trade out of 4H chart? Or what do you look for in it?

Guillermo.
  • #15,343
  • Jul 6, 2015 3:04pm Jul 6, 2015 3:04pm
Quoting guiyee
CW when i try to find a signal on 4H charts they seem to be much less reliable than Daily signals. After looking for Weekly S/R, trend, etc.. If i go down to 4H chart i find it a bit "noisy" so i doubt a lot before pulling the trigger. Could you give me some advice on this? How do you trade out of 4H chart? Or what do you look for in it? Guillermo.

The answer is that I will use the appropriate stop loss levels based upon the weekly S/R lines.......
  • #15,344
  • Jul 7, 2015 10:17pm Jul 7, 2015 10:17pm
Dear CW, follow your method, I have some question. With S/R line, normal it has trend, everything will be good. But when market go side way in S/R line, I usually get stoploss very often, because there are many up + down price pattern. They usually make me hit stoploss 7-8 trade. How I can fix that?

Also, how people calculate their trade risk? For example, you open a position and risk 5% = 31.5$/ total 630$. But you saw another chance and still keep that position, and open another position. Is your risk still 31.5$ or you were assuming that you loss 31.5$, and your new risk 5% = (630 -31.5)*5% = 30$ and so on
  • #15,345
  • Jul 8, 2015 5:41am Jul 8, 2015 5:41am
Quoting jingeliot
Dear CW, follow your method, I have some question. With S/R line, normal it has trend, everything will be good. But when market go side way in S/R line, I usually get stoploss very often, because there are many up + down price pattern. They usually make me hit stoploss 7-8 trade. How I can fix that? Also, how people calculate their trade risk? For example, you open a position and risk 5% = 31.5$/ total 630$. But you saw another chance and still keep that position, and open another position. Is your risk still 31.5$ or you were assuming that you...

The first question isn't that easy to explain, but in essence, you have to trade with a little wider stops in sideways markets sometimes. To be honest, using a higher time frame chart can help in sideways markets.

As far as risk is concerned, you can calculate it in several different ways, but there are two main ways:

Some people will risk a fixed amount each trade......for example $50. The problem with this is that your risk goes higher if you have had a loss previously, and lower if you have had a winner. For example, if you have a $1,000 account and risk $50 (5%), and have a losing trade. Your account balance is now $950. The next $50 trade is risking 5.26% or so.

The second way, and more common, is to risk a fixed percentage. For example, 1% of your total account per trade. If you have $1,000 in your account, you are risking $10 on each trade. However, if you want to add another trade, I would subtract the amount that you are risking in the trade before calculating the amount to risk. So in the account above, the second trade opened would assume a total balance of $990 in your account....allowing a risk of $9.90 for the trade.

Chris
  • #15,346
  • Jul 8, 2015 9:01am Jul 8, 2015 9:01am
Quoting clockwork71
{quote} The first question isn't that easy to explain, but in essence, you have to trade with a little wider stops in sideways markets sometimes. To be honest, using a higher time frame chart can help in sideways markets. As far as risk is concerned, you can calculate it in several different ways, but there are two main ways: Some people will risk a fixed amount each trade......for example $50. The problem with this is that your risk goes higher if you have had a loss previously, and lower if you have had a winner. For example, if you have a $1,000...
Oh, that explain why i maximum drawdown near 20%, month ago with your strategy and risk 3%, i made around 15%, maybe i should follow the common risk fix percent.

Also, I think i should give you my gratitude. Retrospective, i burned two my account, and waste time to look at laptop everyday. After adopt your strategy, i just need to review the change in trend every week, look for daily have near R/S line or not, and only look a little bit on every 4 hour (of course exception my sleep time, this is also reason i give up some good trade)

Even my account is small now, but if i trade profit consistent i will add my account 200$ every month, and look my money compound. In long time everything will play out

I just catch on this one trade, hope it could reach my tp area ( R/S line + 50 pips).
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  • #15,347
  • Jul 8, 2015 8:44pm Jul 8, 2015 8:44pm
Quoting jingeliot
{quote} Oh, that explain why i maximum drawdown near 20%, month ago with your strategy and risk 3%, i made around 15%, maybe i should follow the common risk fix percent. Also, I think i should give you my gratitude. Retrospective, i burned two my account, and waste time to look at laptop everyday. After adopt your strategy, i just need to review the change in trend every week, look for daily have near R/S line or not, and only look a little bit on every 4 hour (of course exception my sleep time, this is also reason i give up some good trade) Even...

I have said this in the past to several people:

If you start out with a small account, you can always add to it every month or whatever. It compounds, like any other account.

Nice looking trade.

Chris
  • #15,348
  • Jul 8, 2015 9:34pm Jul 8, 2015 9:34pm
Quoting jingeliot
{quote} Oh, that explain why i maximum drawdown near 20%, month ago with your strategy and risk 3%, i made around 15%, maybe i should follow the common risk fix percent. Also, I think i should give you my gratitude. Retrospective, i burned two my account, and waste time to look at laptop everyday. After adopt your strategy, i just need to review the change in trend every week, look for daily have near R/S line or not, and only look a little bit on every 4 hour (of course exception my sleep time, this is also reason i give up some good trade) Even...
Just wondering Jingeliot why did you open a sell on AUDNZD?

Now is looking good but at the moment you opened wasn't a bit anticipated? or how i call it.. gambling?.. Of course the weekly Resistance is quite strong and obvious, and the Pinbar on W1 looks nice.. but I say this for the following reasons:

- There was a new weekly high above 1.1300 level
- If you go down to the Daily and 4H chart there was a clear uptrend which got to the weekly Resistance zone
- When you opened the sell according to the 4H chart, the trend didnt change yet.

I would have waited for a lower low on 4H and a bounce on the Resistance again with a good PA signal for confirmation... That's what i was waiting for actually.
Of course.. i am not a professional trader so maybe my opinion is not valid.
I am just a bit confused. Also.. i only take D1 trades most of the times because i don't really like lower timeframes.. so maybe that's why my confusion.

CW could you give your opinion on this? I would appreciate it.

Cheers.
Guillermo
  • #15,349
  • Edited 3:39am Jul 9, 2015 1:16am | Edited 3:39am
Quoting guiyee
{quote} Just wondering Jingeliot why did you open a sell on AUDNZD? Now is looking good but at the moment you opened wasn't a bit anticipated? or how i call it.. gambling?.. Of course the weekly Resistance is quite strong and obvious, and the Pinbar on W1 looks nice.. but I say this for the following reasons: - There was a new weekly high above 1.1300 level - If you go down to the Daily and 4H chart there was a clear uptrend which got to the weekly Resistance zone - When you opened the sell according to the 4H chart, the trend didnt change yet....
Dear Guiyee, i am a newbie trader like you, too. Let just say this is just my point of view, AUD/NZD go too high without major correct. And look at AUD/USD chart, you will see a strong S/R line 0.7600 is broken. I don't know how much AUD will fall, but i know it will fall very much. For USD/NZD, you can see they are slide non-stop, there will be a little correct or slide but slower. It make me think that because people already price the probability of reduce interest rate in NZD, but not in AUD. AUD and NZD is commodity currency, which i saw very bear risk due to China economic problem. Yeah, i also saw weekend pinbar reason,too. When i saw that trend, i wait for it PA near R/S line and short.
  • #15,350
  • Jul 9, 2015 5:14pm Jul 9, 2015 5:14pm
I like going long USD/JPY at the moment, mainly because a lot of this pull back was due to the EU situation, and there are now reports that the Greeks are starting to rethink the "no" position. Any good news should send this pair higher, as it is a risk related market. Also, the Chinese stock markets bounced a little last night, although I am not a big believer in them anyway - it's just a reason.

The trend line has held, and I think that the 120 level is massive. (It is a "zone", and not a line.) I liked the bounce at the end of the session yesterday, and we are starting to see buying in NZ and Australia. I only play this right away because of the longer-term upward bias.

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  • #15,351
  • Jul 9, 2015 5:16pm Jul 9, 2015 5:16pm
Just read something that I posted ages ago. Take a look, its actually good. (Sometimes the sun will shine on even a dog's ass.)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=39408
  • #15,352
  • Jul 9, 2015 5:26pm Jul 9, 2015 5:26pm
Here's a fun chart: 30 yrs of silver London fix pricing. There is a trend line and horizontal support coming up at roughly $15. With this, I am going to buy more physical silver soon. The US Dollar is overvalued at the moment in my opinion, and as a result we could see a snap rally in the precious metals in the fairly near future. I am not using leverage though, because this is a longer-term trade, and leverage makes that painful.

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  • #15,353
  • Jul 9, 2015 8:32pm Jul 9, 2015 8:32pm
Quoting clockwork71
I like going long USD/JPY at the moment, mainly because a lot of this pull back was due to the EU situation, and there are now reports that the Greeks are starting to rethink the "no" position. Any good news should send this pair higher, as it is a risk related market. Also, the Chinese stock markets bounced a little last night, although I am not a big believer in them anyway - it's just a reason. The trend line has held, and I think that the 120 level is massive. (It is a "zone", and not a line.) I liked the bounce at the end of the session yesterday,...
GOOD comments..GOOD charts.. have also taken possie..THKS
  • #15,354
  • Jul 10, 2015 12:45pm Jul 10, 2015 12:45pm
Makes a lot of sense Jingeliot. But now that i see it, i would have put the SL a bit higher.




What do you think of this one CW?

I sold USDSEK altho a pinbar is forming at the moment.

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Also International Business Machine

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  • #15,355
  • Jul 11, 2015 8:18am Jul 11, 2015 8:18am
Quoting guiyee
Makes a lot of sense Jingeliot. But now that i see it, i would have put the SL a bit higher. What do you think of this one CW? I sold USDSEK altho a pinbar is forming at the moment. {image} Also International Business Machine {image}

I can't see the far left of the chart, but I think you sold the USD/SEK pair, and bought the IBM stock.......based on that:

I am not sure about the USD/SEK pair. I think that it will eventually fall, but a lot of times the trend changing is a messy affair. For me, I would probably get out with a small profit, but would be selling if we broke below the pinbar. (Breaking below a supportive candle like that is a sell signal in and of itself.)

The IBM gapped higher at the open - and that's a good thing. I think that stocks in general will be going higher as the Greeks give in. I know this has little to do with IBM directly, but the herd mentality drives the markets overall most of the time.

Chris
  • #15,356
  • Jul 12, 2015 11:34pm Jul 12, 2015 11:34pm
Dear CW,
I read your old post and saw the post about you practice with forextester. I tried it and my win rate is 1:15. Confuse, i played many pair as possible, but the result is the same. I look at my broker chart and see problem here, the PA in my broker have two PA show go up-neutral, and PA in Forexite show go down - neutral.

After that, i tried trading station flatform of fxcm ( list on stock market, and famous for their reputation), the PA is complete different, too. Because they calculated time like 1 - 5- 9 / bar, and my broker calculated time like 0-4-8 / bar.

Can i ask where do you get your forex chart from ?
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  • #15,357
  • Jul 16, 2015 5:58pm Jul 16, 2015 5:58pm
I get mine from Oanada, but to be honest - all price action is acceptable. What I mean by this is that support is support, and resistance is resistance. Because of this, I would urge you to not get too worried about the closing time of a candle, but to focus on prices that show reactions over long periods of time. I have found this to be the only way to get past the different shapes.

To be honest, the shape itself isn't as important as the fact that the level causes the market to bounce time and time again. To be honest, if you pay attention to only the best levels - candles and bars aren't even necessary. Line charts can show what you need. Don't get me wrong, I like hammers, but that isn't as important as a bounce from the level of support itself.
  • #15,358
  • Jul 16, 2015 6:07pm Jul 16, 2015 6:07pm
Here is without a doubt the most interesting chart in the Forex world right now as far as I can see......the USD/CAD monthly. The 1.30 level was where the pair stopped at during the financial crisis from a few years ago. This area is massive in it's implications. We are going to struggle to get above it, but if we do, this could be a massive uptrend that lasts for years.

This is the type of "major" support or resistance area you need to be looking for. With a situation like this, it is best to perhaps wait until a weekly candle, or even a monthly candle breaks above and closes. If it does, the pair should continue to climb. The thing about these areas is that the resistance "zone" can be 100 pips. (Or even more.) This is why it is more important to pay attention to how long it stays above the area. If we can stay above the 1.30 level for a couple of weeks as an example, this means that the buyers are comfortable at such lofty levels.

I will be paying attention to this chart for some time....

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  • #15,359
  • Jul 16, 2015 7:01pm Jul 16, 2015 7:01pm
Quoting clockwork71
Here is without a doubt the most interesting chart in the Forex world right now as far as I can see......the USD/CAD monthly. The 1.30 level was where the pair stopped at during the financial crisis from a few years ago. This area is massive in it's implications. We are going to struggle to get above it, but if we do, this could be a massive uptrend that lasts for years. This is the type of "major" support or resistance area you need to be looking for. With a situation like this, it is best to perhaps wait until a weekly candle, or even a monthly...

I been all the day checking many posts and all says up up up and no one mention or looked to this level as ur chart
good to see someone on same boat like me


i remember this level very good last of 2008 and 2009

I may add I'm interested to 1.2430 but let's c first how it goes
will b following ur input about this pair
  • #15,360
  • Edited Jul 17, 2015 1:58pm Jul 16, 2015 7:47pm | Edited Jul 17, 2015 1:58pm
Quoting clockwork71
Here is without a doubt the most interesting chart in the Forex world right now as far as I can see......the USD/CAD monthly. The 1.30 level was where the pair stopped at during the financial crisis from a few years ago. This area is massive in it's implications. We are going to struggle to get above it, but if we do, this could be a massive uptrend that lasts for years. This is the type of "major" support or resistance area you need to be looking for. With a situation like this, it is best to perhaps wait until a weekly candle, or even a monthly...

I have had my eyes on USDCAD for a while waiting for the price to get there. I actually have a Sell limit right there.. i dont know if its a smart move, but i guess probabilities are on my side if i play it right with the SL.

I have a question regarding to one of the teachings and thoughts at the beggining of the thread you gave and i found really interesting.

You said that is important for us to understand what are we really looking for in here.... To make money?? or become economist?? That you weren't really interested to know what's going on in the world.. and it's not the most important thing to make money out of it.

When i read that, i realized that even tho i like to get informed with news around the world, politics, economic or cultural news... I am not really interested to understand or even do fundamental analysis.. I wanna make money.. i dont wanna be an economist.
Do you still hold this thoughts? That you can do just fine with technicals?

It's still soon to say, but so far after almost 2 months of doing just technicals, i have been quite profitable. But i wouldn't say i am victorious at least after 3 to 6 months of profits.

PS: Do you ever use TS? or you play your SL to break even at any particular moment in a winning trade?
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