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Let's Trade Options

  • #9,361
  • Jul 7, 2015 4:27am Jul 7, 2015 4:27am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} the above quote was made in APRIL and today we had a low of 17600 again before we bounced of slightly, we have bounced of this area a few times but this time it may go then the above could happen
apart from the big red candle from last week we still haven't closed below 17600 area on the DOW, would like to see a whole candle open and close beneath it for continuation and a 1000 point drop and a VIX rise to the upper 20's, this will help with a APPLE trade to the downside for me too
  • #9,362
  • Jul 7, 2015 8:37am Jul 7, 2015 8:37am
Ugh ... . XAUUSD down 1.4%-ish ... . Taking the opp to add a better priced GLD short put spread, Aug 21 Expiry, 103/109 for 1.13 ... .

July 17th TBT 47/53 strangle may end up on the dance floor ... . Price hovering above 47 ... . Same deal with TLT 114/121 strangle, same expiry (TLT @ 120.27). With the way these have been been whipping about, that ain't much room.

I'll exit the TBT 53 short call/the 114 TLT short put if they hit .05 and then roll for duration and credit and reestablish the strangles at a later expiration ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,363
  • Jul 7, 2015 8:45am Jul 7, 2015 8:45am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Putting on my weekly mechanical SPY/DIA/IWM IC, as IVR for all of these remains above 35. DIA appears to have the IVR rank right now, so I'm opting for the Aug 21 161/165/183/187 IC for a 1.06 credit (POP 61%; BE's at 163.94 and 184.06).
Could not get a fill on my weekly mechanical for more than 1.00 ... . Tweaked to DIA Aug 21 160/164/182/186 for 1.10 ... . DIA IVR at 6 mo Dough IVR of 92 ... . Totally ignoring earnings plays now ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,364
  • Jul 7, 2015 8:47am Jul 7, 2015 8:47am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Could not get a fill on my weekly mechanical for more than 1.00 ... . Tweaked to DIA Aug 21 160/164/182/186 for 1.10 ... . DIA IVR at 6 mo Dough IVR of 92 ... . Totally ignoring earnings plays now ... .
The one earnings play I had my eye on for this week was PEP ... . Volatility never appeared ... . It's currently at 40 -- not enough for a premium selling play ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,365
  • Jul 7, 2015 8:56am Jul 7, 2015 8:56am
With a 100 IVR, ASHR's on my radar again ... . Options are still ridiculously and unworkably illiquid ... . FXI (IVR 77), has totally imploded, making me regret that I did not get in on the short call side ... . If it gets back to bouncing around in some fairly mundane fashion between 42.5 and 37, I might revisit it. Right now, not touching with a ten-foot pole ... . It's not always liquid enough anyways ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,366
  • Jul 7, 2015 9:15am Jul 7, 2015 9:15am
Looks like Dough culled out some of the more inactive traders they had on their follow page, only to be replaced with this:

Attached Image


All I can say is WTF ... . A .19 credit?
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,367
  • Jul 7, 2015 9:26am Jul 7, 2015 9:26am
The other WTF trade is this:

Attached Image


POP is great, but he's looking for a .41 credit -- a maximum profit of $41 -- and using over $2,000 of buying power to do it ... . The Market Measures rule is to take off IC's for 50% max profit, so he may really only be looking for $20 out of this trade ... . After fees and commissions, he might be able to buy a McDonald's Happy Meal ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,368
  • Jul 7, 2015 10:07am Jul 7, 2015 10:07am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Looks like Dough culled out some of the more inactive traders they had on their follow page, only to be replaced with this: {image} All I can say is WTF ... . A .19 credit?
wtf indeed...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,369
  • Jul 7, 2015 12:34pm Jul 7, 2015 12:34pm
hope everyone is making money, I have been basically just too busy to concentrate enough to make any new trades. Jul SPY $202/$200 bear puts ($0.32) all I am watching - 40 of those has been enough of a headache, have a Aug1/Aug TLT $109/$108 puts diagonal, a 7c debit, meh, whatevs, .....I am still looking for another runup for the indices to sell call spreads into, fingers crossed. Have tomorrow off, may look at something for a weekly trade. Summers just too much to do....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,370
  • Jul 7, 2015 12:38pm Jul 7, 2015 12:38pm
Another day, another "V" reversal... don't you just LOVE that shit...

Took some small money on XIV long (shoulda hold that, but didn't), lost quite a bit on some poor timing trades... too tired and too nervous today.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,371
  • Jul 7, 2015 12:46pm Jul 7, 2015 12:46pm
Quoting StrayDog
Another day, another "V" reversal... don't you just LOVE that shit... Took some small money on XIV long (shoulda hold that, but didn't), lost quite a bit on some poor timing trades... too tired and too nervous today.
I will be peeking at UVXY and VXX tomorrow, for weekly plays, anticipating crash back to lows of prior week, otherwise watching for SPY to push to $210 or better. One of these days....the Greece show will be over, then it will be the Fed show....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,372
  • Jul 7, 2015 4:56pm Jul 7, 2015 4:56pm
Had today off, so was able to be aggravated by the ridiculousness ... . Close to getting out of one side or the other of my TLT/TBT strangles (I mean, like .01 close to having to pay no commissions), only to have it yanked away in the afternoon session.

Not making money ... . Not losing money ... . Merely waiting for a vol crush to kick in at some point. Like anything, who the hell knows when and to what degree that will occur with the continuing Greek crap and IMF's twisting Janet's titties about holding off until 2016 for a rate hike lift off (http://www.bbc.com/news/business-33437506) ... . Frankly, I'm awfully skiddish about continuing to put on IC's in the indices unless they're grostequely skewed to the downside (all of my SPY IC short put strikes are at 199 and below, but I could probably skew even more dramatically ... ). There is at least .50 of premium in short puts all the way down to the 185 strike (Aug 21 expiry), which is nearly at the 2 SD ... . An Aug 21 179/183/214/218 IC is going for 1.04 with a 71% POP (BE's at 181.96 and 215.04; BP Effect -296.00).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,373
  • Jul 7, 2015 5:12pm Jul 7, 2015 5:12pm
The other thing I need to keep in the back of my head is dancing around expirations near and around FOMC in mid-September ... . I've got stuff sprinkled in all the way out to Aug 21 expiry ... . Naturally, there is money to be made on FOMC volatility/price action, but I'd prefer not being handed my nuts in a pickle jar if I can help it ... . In all likelihood, I'll only be able to take advantage of a couple more weekly expiries for my mechanical index IC's, after which the plan is to take a breather from putting on index IC's, watch FOMC mostly in cash, and then move back in ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,374
  • Jul 7, 2015 5:26pm Jul 7, 2015 5:26pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Looks like Dough culled out some of the more inactive traders they had on their follow page, only to be replaced with this: {image} All I can say is WTF ... . A .19 credit?
That being said, here is a fairly good, bread-and-butter, common sense play:

Attached Image


My personal preference would have been to put the short strikes out closer to 1 SD, which would have resulted in a smaller credit, but also more room for the trade to breathe. TLT, after all, has been a bit wild of late ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,375
  • Jul 7, 2015 10:41pm Jul 7, 2015 10:41pm
re: a weekly UVXY trade, I might go super bull: the short put spreads for Friday expiry are a no-brainer with Greece hanging in the wind until next Monday. Something like Friday's $36/$34 puts for $0.25 credit, and next Friday's $51/$52 long calls or higher for small debit - something like $10 otm calls - trade will go on for a net credit and the Jul calls spread could pay 8 to 1 or better if the VIX explodes on a Grexit announcement....2c fill on the Jul calls is a tease, but we'll see what's there Wed. At any rate I will be waiting to see what super dove JY's FOMC minutes does for the btfd crowd.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-07-07_uvxy.png Size: 54 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,376
  • Jul 7, 2015 11:42pm Jul 7, 2015 11:42pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Had today off, so was able to be aggravated by the ridiculousness ...
more coming, another bloody night - SHCOMP down near 7%, /ES -23, we'll see if JY words can soove the fever brow
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,377
  • Jul 7, 2015 11:44pm Jul 7, 2015 11:44pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} more coming, another bloody night - SHCOMP down near 7%, /ES -23, we'll see if JY words can soove the fever brow
gold futures slipping, too - so much for safe haven status
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,378
  • Jul 8, 2015 8:25am Jul 8, 2015 8:25am
hi TF, tks and my bad for starting on the wrong foot when I first posted here. I am new to this arena and was sourcing ard for some info and came upon this active option thread. looking forward to learning from fellow participants.

straydog, tks for your bridge much appreciated.
  • #9,379
  • Jul 8, 2015 8:47am Jul 8, 2015 8:47am
Quoting The Fool
....the Greece show will be over, then it will be the Fed show....
Every VIX spike over $19 should be sold. Best results for me is going long XIV.
It has CFDs also, and margin req. is smaller... Yesterdays range was over $4 on it, from 37.40 to 41.something .
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,380
  • Jul 8, 2015 8:52am Jul 8, 2015 8:52am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
...Like anything, who the hell knows when and to what degree that will occur with the continuing Greek crap and IMF's twisting Janet's titties about holding off until 2016 for a rate hike lift off ...
And on top of that, panic selling in China. Their market is young, and obviously like every young and fast moving up market, I can imagine that majority of speculators didn't enter at low levels... It has gone +150% very fast, so now when SHTF and you got -30% very quick, I think majority of them are shiting in their pants.

Attached Image
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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