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Easy Supply and Demand Trading

  • #41
  • Jul 3, 2015 9:01am Jul 3, 2015 9:01am
First post newbie here.

Ive recently discovered the Supply & Demand strategy. I really love it as it doesnt focus on loads of indicators, its purely price action and, it just makes a lot more sense to me.

But as Im new, Im trying to find supply and demand zones. I dont go for the obvious pivot highs and pivot lows, I follow the odds enhancer checklist created by Sam Seiden and I think, Ive found some good S&D zones.

Two of my first zones worked out and hit my target profit. Then the next three didnt work out and I got stopped out. The one after that, I got stopped out just before the rise in price, so maybe if I had my SL a little lower I may have ended up with a successful trade.

But I have a few questions especially for the OP @Hoffi4201 -

1. How many zones on average do you find a week / day? As Im going through my charts, seeking out zones, I find that there arent that many?

2. Im focusing on the 1H 30m 15m 10m 5m timeframes to find fresh zones. I think you said you work on the 1D and 1H? What would you guys recommend to trade off and find your zones?

3. How do you analyse a bad trade? Say you found a zone you take it, and for whatever reason you get stopped out. How do you go back and say Ok, so what happened here and how can I fix it or at least be aware of that so I can try to avoid what I did wrong next time.

Any advice, feedback would be really helpful!

Thanks, I'm loving this thread, very insightful.
  • #42
  • Jul 3, 2015 11:17am Jul 3, 2015 11:17am
Quoting JackAntigua
{quote} Hi Hoffi, thanks for the reply. Where you draw the zone is of course pretty important. If drawn from the high of the inside bar, the entry would have been missed by 1.1 pip whereas at the high of the subsequent bar you would have been triggered in. Or you could enter say within 5 pip's of a zone to alleviate this problem to some extent. I was just wondering on your precise methadology to determine the zone. Thanks. {image}
I noticed the same pretty often. This is why I draw the zones rather big than small. Or I change to smaller timeframe for a save entry!
  • #43
  • Jul 3, 2015 11:25am Jul 3, 2015 11:25am
Quoting Burntwaffle
First post newbie here. Ive recently discovered the Supply & Demand strategy. I really love it as it doesnt focus on loads of indicators, its purely price action and, it just makes a lot more sense to me. But as Im new, Im trying to find supply and demand zones. I dont go for the obvious pivot highs and pivot lows, I follow the odds enhancer checklist created by Sam Seiden and I think, Ive found some good S&D zones. Two of my first zones worked out and hit my target profit. Then the next three didnt work out and I got stopped out. The one after...
Nice to hear that you discovered this kind of trading for you!
1. It depends. When I go through 28 forex pairs and 10 cfds I find quite a lot. But I can't show you a precise number for that. I try to give you more live examples on monday.

2. I would definitely recommend to trade on H1,D1 or even Weekly timeframe. But when it is a high probability zone I try to trade also on M15 or even M5.

3. The most important thing is to determine the right zone. I try to show you over the weekend the "high" probability zones and "low" probability zones. It was often the case that some zones were already used without you recognize it. E.g. when there is a zone formed on H1 and you scoll days or even weeks back, there is already a zone formed. You need to be clear that it's a fresh and original one.

Hope you can see it more clearly now. If not please ask
  • #44
  • Jul 3, 2015 11:34am Jul 3, 2015 11:34am
@ hoffia201 i support you..i also have been working to it this week...and i hope the best time frame to trade using supply and demand zone is D1..it works best....
Cheers Regard
  • #45
  • Jul 3, 2015 12:34pm Jul 3, 2015 12:34pm
Quoting Hoffi4201
{quote} Nice to hear that you discovered this kind of trading for you! 1. It depends. When I go through 28 forex pairs and 10 cfds I find quite a lot. But I can't show you a precise number for that. I try to give you more live examples on monday. 2. I would definitely recommend to trade on H1,D1 or even Weekly timeframe. But when it is a high probability zone I try to trade also on M15 or even M5. 3. The most important thing is to determine the right zone. I try to show you over the weekend the "high" probability zones and "low" probability zones....
Hey Hoffi, thanks for getting back to me! Really appreciate this.

Any examples you could give and show would be fantastic and really helpful to see, so, I'll look forward to seeing those!

Focusing on 3. I think you went over it before earlier in the thread talking about the fresh zone, price has never been there before. But I just thought it meant recently. So that could be where I'm going wrong.

Can you just clarify your understanding of a fresh zone? Do you mean its fresh in that price has never, ever been there before? If it has, but lets say it was November 14 when price was last there, would it be considered a fresh level?

I don't know if you have 5 minutes but would you mind having a look at a few trades I've taken that went wrong?

http://i.imgur.com/ufnTnZ8.png This one youre looking at is the two long horizontal lines. I liked the rally base rally around the 1.9600 mark. But I got stopped out. Looking back now, it doesnt look as good. This was on the H1 chart. Thoughts?

http://i.imgur.com/RNsTj4q.png This is a buy limit I have going on, to the left you can see price has already been here before, but this still looks like a good level to me?

http://i.imgur.com/0OR4ktN.png Finally heres GBP/JPY couple of zones I like the look of on the H1 chart. Thoughts?

Just to finish, Im sort of basing my practice from watching most of Sam Seidens webinars, looking for strong drops or rallies in price and finding R:R of 2:1 or better.

Hoffi, thanks so much for your time and to anyone else who wants to throw in their 2 cents.
  • #46
  • Jul 3, 2015 1:21pm Jul 3, 2015 1:21pm
What I mean with fresh zone is a zone where a new supply/demand zone was created. Looking for example at your GBPAUD chart. This is for my understanding a fresh demand zone although there was a supply zone in the past. As soon as the price went through the zone it is deleted.
Hope you know what I mean.



Looking at your GBPCAD chart:

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This isn't really a good base in my opinion. I am trying to look for clear bases! And you could consider the trend theory about Higher Highs and Higher Lows (not forbidden ). The uptrend was more or less over. You can see that at the lower high. So I would be a bit careful with longs. The red zone was already tested, so this is neither a good entry level.

GBPAUD:

Good zone

GBPJPY:

Also good zones, but there are quite more available!
  • #47
  • Jul 3, 2015 5:42pm Jul 3, 2015 5:42pm
Quoting Hoffi4201
Hi, I present you my Supply and Demand System. There is a lot of information on FF and youtube on how to find those zones. I will tell you how to trade these zones. I trade the 28 major/minor pairs and maybe I am going to add Dax, DJ, FTSE etc. How the system works: - This system focuses primarily on D1 and H1 zones. - No Indicators, just Supply and Demand zones. - No trading during red news Entrys: - Aggressive Entry: Buy/Sell Limit on Supply/Demand Zone with a SL at the end of the zone and a TP of 2:1. {image} - Conservative Entry: Wait for confirmation...
Hi fully agree on that. This is very good trading. Determining correct zones give you possibilty to see your risk. S\D works on any tf just, smaller tf smaller s\l or tg. Setting Buy\Sell orders on fresh levels also give advantage to reduce screen time. All rest is right money management and some personal attributes that some people have or for some other they are coming with time. Good work here with your levels. Keep it up. Regards
  • #48
  • Jul 4, 2015 3:09am Jul 4, 2015 3:09am
Quoting morob
{quote} Hi fully agree on that. This is very good trading. Determining correct zones give you possibilty to see your risk. S\D works on any tf just, smaller tf smaller s\l or tg. Setting Buy\Sell orders on fresh levels also give advantage to reduce screen time. All rest is right money management and some personal attributes that some people have or for some other they are coming with time. Good work here with your levels. Keep it up. Regards
Thanks a lot for your kind words, I try my best
  • #49
  • Jul 4, 2015 4:24am Jul 4, 2015 4:24am
Quoting Hoffi4201
What I mean with fresh zone is a zone where a new supply/demand zone was created. Looking for example at your GBPAUD chart. This is for my understanding a fresh demand zone although there was a supply zone in the past. As soon as the price went through the zone it is deleted. Hope you know what I mean. Looking at your GBPCAD chart: {image} This isn't really a good base in my opinion. I am trying to look for clear bases! And you could consider the trend theory about Higher Highs and Higher Lows (not forbidden ). The uptrend was more or less over....
Thanks Hoffi, this has really cleared up what you mean by a "fresh zone".

I would love to see some examples you mentioned before about "high probability zones" and "low probability zones" if you get time to do it.

Thanks!
  • #50
  • Jul 4, 2015 5:06am Jul 4, 2015 5:06am
hi hoffi,
hi all,
just to see what are the areas of interest and the 'fresh' ..
I tried to pull some line ..
could you give me feedback if 'm right?
thx

gbpusd h1
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nescentia necat
  • #51
  • Jul 4, 2015 7:53am Jul 4, 2015 7:53am
Quoting friska
hi hoffi, hi all, just to see what are the areas of interest and the 'fresh' .. I tried to pull some line .. could you give me feedback if 'm right? thx gbpusd h1 {image} {image}

Hi friska, yes you are basically right about those zones. With every touch of the zone it gets less important and the probability that the price breaks through/doesn't react to the zone gets higher.

I will give you more information later on!
  • #52
  • Jul 5, 2015 7:25am Jul 5, 2015 7:25am
Small update:

I don't think that I am able to provide you today more information about zone forming. No time, sorry guys.
But as promised I will post more tomorrow !
  • #53
  • Jul 5, 2015 9:58pm Jul 5, 2015 9:58pm
Nice job Hoffi. I'd almost forgotten about S/D trading. Extremely effective on higher (H1 & above) Time Frames. Thanks for the refresher...
  • #54
  • Jul 6, 2015 12:33am Jul 6, 2015 12:33am
Quoting diamonddbw
Nice job Hoffi. I'd almost forgotten about S/D trading. Extremely effective on higher (H1 & above) Time Frames. Thanks for the refresher...
It's also very effective on lower time frame as well
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #55
  • Jul 6, 2015 2:35am Jul 6, 2015 2:35am
Quoting diamonddbw
Nice job Hoffi. I'd almost forgotten about S/D trading. Extremely effective on higher (H1 & above) Time Frames. Thanks for the refresher...
I find it very effective too. The tricky part is to find an objective way with rules to draw zones correctly, so easy in hindsight but SO DIFFICULT in live market.
  • #56
  • Jul 6, 2015 2:53am Jul 6, 2015 2:53am
Critique these demand/supply level's. They're largely DBD and RBR zones:
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  • #57
  • Jul 6, 2015 3:32am Jul 6, 2015 3:32am
I will show you here two basic rules how to identify the most important zones:

1. The more the price moves away from a zone the higher is the probability that when it comes back it will react to this zone
2. The less time price spends at a level the higher is the probability that when it comes back it will react to this zone.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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1. You can see here a big move away on the H1 EURCHF. After that the base of this move became a strong supply level. You can see that the price reacts several times to this level.

2. The price spent just a little time on this level because the sellers came in quickly. You can see afterwards that it bounces back two times and the price doesn't break through!

With those two hints it will be a little easier to identify "good" and "bad" zones.

Keep on posting and asking, I will try to answer every question!
  • #58
  • Jul 6, 2015 3:35am Jul 6, 2015 3:35am
Quoting Pippard
Critique these demand/supply level's. They're largely DBD and RBR zones: {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
Would be good trade opportunities there. You can test your trading approach here. (Conservative vs. Aggressive Entry/Exit)
  • #59
  • Jul 6, 2015 4:09am Jul 6, 2015 4:09am
Quoting Hoffi4201
I will show you here two basic rules how to identify the most important zones: 1. The more the price moves away from a zone the higher is the probability that when it comes back it will react to this zone 2. The less time price spends at a level the higher is the probability that when it comes back it will react to this zone. {image} 1. You can see here a big move away on the H1 EURCHF. After that the base of this move became a strong supply level. You can see that the price reacts several times to this level. 2. The price spent just a little time...
Isn't this a choppy market zone?

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  • #60
  • Jul 6, 2015 4:28am Jul 6, 2015 4:28am
Yes, it's a choppy zone. But because of the following strong move the zone is well formed anyway. This should have been just an example to show you the two rules.
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