Variant Perspective Trading

Introduction

Greetings Forex Factory.

I'm a retail trader with just over 5 years experience trading foreign exchange markets. When I began I had absolutely no idea what I was doing, but despite this I was 100% hooked in a very short space of time. Despite consistently losing money in the early years, I found myself having that constant feeling in the back of my mind that trading was something that I could very well succeed at if I could only apply myself for long enough.

They say that 90% of traders will never become consistently profitable. They're correct. This business is tough both mentally and emotionally.

Happily, I can now say after 5 years that I am a consistently profitable trader. I make more money than I lose, and have experienced trading in enough different kinds of market environments to be comfortable in all of them. In addition, I'm aware of my strengths and weaknesses as a trader and know how to capitalise or avoid them as necessary.

Despite saying this, I know that I am only one part of the way down this treacherous and difficult journey towards mastery. My hope is that by making and keeping up this thread I will be able to fine-tune my strategies and risk management even more.

This thread is also my way of giving back to the Forex Factory community, who if nothing else, helped me to discover my own identity as a trader. I hope that it helps you in your own journey.

Improving Yourself

Let's start of with a definition of a consistently profitable trader. Note that this has my own spin applied and may not be the same as how another person might explain it.

A trader who consistently makes more money than they lose, taking into account other related costs such as:

1. Brokerage fees
2. Cost of setting up / running equipment such as a PC, trading platform etc
3. The time cost of money; in other words if you could be out earning money in a "regular job" for 8 hours at $20 per hour, you should be making more than $160 per day across a reasonable period of time trading the markets.

​Now it could be argued that a person trading micro lots and making consistent albeit small gains on an ongoing basis is consistently profitable, however for me personally, I want to trade for a living. I trade for a number of reasons, but one of those is so that I don't have to work a 9-5 job. With this in mind the bare minimum for me must then be that I should earn more from trading than I otherwise would in a regular job (in the long-run). In addition, there is a significant difference in trading micro lots and multiple contracts. Psychologically it is a very different ball game; I know from personal experience that you can be making a 2-3% daily gain on a micro-sized account and then try to translate that directly into a larger account and fail miserably. This is because when you introduce real money, and more of it, you must exercise greater self-control and emotional stability in order to trade. This is not an economy of scale! The more money there is involved the more difficult it is until you can develop a system for managing your emotions and managing yourself.

-- More to Follow --

The System

Firstly a disclaimer. Anything written here is an idea of my own and in my experience works well with my interpretation of the market as a whole. I may make statements that do not align with what others have said, however that is because these concepts are ones that I have developed/assimilated over time for myself and my own trading style and they may not work with other approaches to trading.

First and foremost, you must have at least some idea of the overall fundamental state of the instrument which you are trading. To use a current example, if you're trading almost anything right now you should be thinking of the possible effects that the Greek financial crisis will have on your positions. If I'm planning a long position on a EUR futures contract right now I should be exceptionally wary of the current downside risk. Some traders base their trading purely on fundamentals while others ignore these completely and trade only the patterns they see on a chart. I have tried both approaches and there are merits to both, but in my experience a healthy balance of both is essential. In short I would describe myself as a technical trader who makes decisions with fundamental occurrences in mind.

Secondly I will begin a top-down analysis of the markets which I trade. This starts with the Daily, 4 Hour and 1 Hour charts. On these three time frames I use a few strategies to analyse potential price movements:

1. Conventional price action analysis. There is a lot information on this forum about this, personally I use price action such as pin bars, inside bars and engulfing bars as modifiers to the probability that a trade will succeed. I never use them as the origin for a trade idea, only to support a trade that I am already considering.
2. Supply and Demand Analysis. I discovered the Sam Seiden (Online Trading Academy) brand of SD trading a while back and have found it immensely useful in developing my own concept of how large institutions manipulate price. I use it to determine price points where there exists an imbalance between buyers and sellers. These price points tend to make for higher probability trades. A good portion of their methodology is available online for free.
3. Trend lines and channels. When trading I am always looking for value in price. You'll often hear people talking about "going with the trend" or "buying low, selling high." Some people might have you believe that these are mutually exclusive ideologies, in other words that you cannot go with the trend at the same time as buying low and selling high. I would argue that this is not the case. In the below chart you will notice that the price is presently in an uptrend. I like to describe a trend from a technical perspective using an equidistant channel. If I sell when price nears the top of the channel and buy at the bottom, I am both going with the trend AND obtaining value. I find this to be a high probability approach.

Third, I drill down to the 5 and 15-minute time frames in order to develop an intraday perspective on price movements. I will typically rely heavily on trendlines and price action here.

The most important time frame for me is the 1-minute chart. Here I draw horizontal lines to indicate round levels, the ones I use are .00, .25, .50 and .75. I find that more often than not a price imbalance at a round level will be 1) more likely to result in a profitable trade and 2) will move further in the direction of profit, letting me set more aggressive targets on a setup involving a round level.

I use the ADX indicator as a filter for trades. This is one rule I do NOT allow myself to break; for a long trade the red (downwards momentum indicator) line must be above 40 on a 14-period ADX. For a short trade the green (upwards momentum indicator) must be above 40. I will very rarely, if ever take a trade that doesn't have an ADX signal supporting it. This rule has stopped me from entering the market prematurely on many occasions.



Last of all I like to time my entry by using a tick chart. I use a 2-tick chart with a 20/10 period Keltner channel (see below screenshot). The rule here is that for a short position I will attempt to enter the market when the bid exceeds the upper limits of the channel. For a long position I'll wait for the ask to dip below the channel. I've found that using this tactic helps me to pick up on average 0.5 - 1.0 extra pips of profit every trade, as I'm almost always getting filled at a reasonably good price. This may seem insignificant but across many trades this extra profit really makes a difference. I would encourage any short-term trader or scalper who is not using some method to improve the timing of their trades to try something like this.



Final Words

It is my hope that this thread will be of help to more than a few traders. It's entitled "Variant Perspective Trading" as I believe quite firmly that in order to become profitable you must learn how to develop an approach to the market that differs what the herd is doing. Unless you have a variant perspective of some sort it is very difficult to make money. This really is the key to why only a very small proportion of traders win in the long run!

I'll be editing this first post to be more comprehensive, and of course I'll be posting live trades as they happen. If you'd like to instigate any kind of constructive discussion please feel absolutely free to do so

Mike

I agree with you wholeheartedly Mike. A guy by the name of Dr. Maltz (Psycho-Cybernetics) suggests that, if allowed, our creative imagination can create the tools we need to achieve great goals. So your words suggesting that it's about ourselves rings very true. It seems many traders are always looking for the perfect system, when the perfect system lies somewhere inside the creative imagination. Seems that you've created a system that will work for you because you've taken the time to unleash your most important tool, the creative imagination. Congratulations and trade well.

interesting stuff. post some trades and charts fella..

Thank you for your kind words Sossos, system-hopping is something that I did a lot of early in my journey. I feel that the system an individual will trade best is one that he or she develops themselves. This is because they will be more likely to be intimately familiar with its inner workings. I also find it much easier to adapt my style to changing market behaviour with a system that I came up with myself!

Let's look at a live example. Today I'll be trading the early Asian/Australian session, however I do tend to prefer the early European markets because of the increased volatility. I'm going to share a trade on the USDJPY that I decided not to take. There were certainly merits to the trade, however given a number of factors I decided the risk outweighed the potential reward and did not pull the trigger. I'll explain my thought process as I go.

Macro Perspective

It's always important to keep an eye on upcoming news. Of course it's impossible to know about everything that can affect your trade in advance (eg. the Swiss National Bank removing a certain currency peg) however it's prudent to be aware of any potential impacts on the market before they occur.

For today we have two low-impact numbers; the BoJ monetary base and a 10-year bond auction. Neither of these have me very concerned. There are some big US numbers coming out tonight (NFP, unemployment etc) however we'll be out long before they come out.

Higher Time Frames

On the 4H chart we can see the fairly substantial gap down from last weekend courtesy of our friends in Greece. One interesting thing I've noticed here is that the majority of major currency pairs have actually closed this gap already. While this is not an indicator that the USDJPY will absolutely follow suit, it is a factor to keep in mind. I would posit that in the coming days it is more likely than not that the USDJPY will cover this gap.



It is worth mentioning that a flip zone (a concept from OTA's supply and demand trading) exists at around 123.224. This adds weight to the chances for a short position at the current price to succeed. Despite this flip zone, the channel drawn in the below chart shows us that entering the market short at the current price may not obtain maximum value. I would much prefer to enter short at around 123.50 in the next 2-3 hours. At this point I would most likely dismiss this trade until price reaches a higher level from which to short. I will continue to drill down the trade to show my methods however.



Intraday Perspective

The price is about to reach levels that have not been touched since last week. This is great considering we've already established that a flip zone exists around the current price. That's because there are likely to be pending orders just above the price 123.239. These could either be Buy Stop or Sell Limit orders. Based upon our previous analysis I would conclude that it is difficult to say with any real degree of confidence whether there are more Limit orders or more Stops. This is the key reason I will not be taking this trade at the current price.



Entry Signal

If I had decided to go ahead with this trade I would need to wait for a signal on the 1-minute chart. The chart below depicts an ADX signal which gives the ok to open a short position. Looking at the price action just below the .25 level it's fairly clear that a supply/demand imbalance exists. If our full top-down analysis suggested a sell would be likely to succeed this would absolutely be the place to enter. I would then time my entry on the 2-tick chart.



Trade Management

On this particular trade I would place a 5-pip Stop Loss at or just below 123.30. This is a very short-term, intraday approach to trading; a 5 pip stop is quite small! However in this situation I find these short stops to be quite effective if and only if they are placed intelligently. If you can enter a trade at a really solid area of imbalance with tight risk you can open a fairly large position. This means that the potential rewards become quite substantial. It would not be unreasonable to expect 15-20 pips on this trade, a risk-to-reward ratio of 3:1 or better.

Summing Up

There were three factors that stopped me from entering this one:

1. Insufficient value from the 1H channel
2. An unfilled market gap leading to the price 123.889
3. Insufficient volatility in the market (early Asian session). To expand on this, I feel as though the price will be more likely to proceed upwards for this pair today. In order to make the target we would need a certain amount of trading volume and volatility to bring the price down once we've entered short. I don't believe that volume exists just yet and will wait until later in the session.

Hopefully this sheds some light on my thought processes. Good luck to you all in your trading today!

Mike

Time for a live example that I did take! The AUDUSD is presently in a downtrend on the 1H chart. This means we're allowed to buy low in the channel and sell high. This trade was a long at the price 0.76353.

Macro

There is some important trade balance data for the AUD out at 11:30am AEST. Ideally I want to be out of the position before then.

Higher Time Frames

The Aussie has been ranging between 0.76 and 0.785 for the past month. Presently we are near the bottom of this range. For a trader looking for value this means long positions are favoured. To support this concept, a 4-hour demand zone exists at 0.76327. To make the deal even better the price is currently low in the 1H channel, meaning we are obtaining good value on a long trade at this time and price point.

These factors make me lean strongly towards a long position at around 0.7633 assuming lower time frame confirmation.




Intraday

The 15-minute chart is in line with what we've already discussed on the hourly chart.

Timing the Trade

I waited for a nice swing near the recent market low on the 1-minute chart. As soon as the ADX popped over 40 I drilled down to the 2-tick chart for entry and was filled at 0.76353.

Trade Management

The stop loss was set at 0.76319, or 1.1 pips below the most recent low. Once again quite a short SL which provided excellent risk to reward. Target was set at 0.76490 for a total of 13.7 pips less commission/spread.




I'm stoked with this trade, it felt right from the get-go and played out nicely, and importantly prior to the 11:30am trade balance release.

Mike

I like your thread even though I'm not much into indicators (although I like how you use them in conjunction with PA/T lines). Thanks for starting an interesting thread.

Thanks for your comments! I went through a time a while ago where I used naked charts (no indicators at all) but now find that, for me, they're useful as a decision-making filter but NOT in order to place a trade or generate trade ideas.

Looking back on the USDJPY potential long trade from earlier this morning it appears I made the correct decision to not enter. Bullish momentum has carried the market upwards. I'd still like to wait until it reaches at least the .50 level before going short.



Mike

Hello and welcome to the new trading week! This one should be interesting at the very least...

I've been quite cautious this morning courtesy of a certain referendum. I like to trade with my daily and weekly goals as the focus, and so anything that makes me lose sight of that goal is something I try to avoid. Huge price gaps and scary fundamental issues are the sort of events which put me off my game. Work to your strengths and work around your weaknesses

Here's an example of a trade I took today. It was a long on the EURUSD. I don't expect too much volatility until more of the European markets open up later today, and this trade was a pretty safe bet.

I'm sharing this one in particular with you because it is so simple. The higher timeframes are almost irrelevant for this trade, it was all based off the 1M and 5M charts. Having said that, if we were higher in the channel on the H1 and/or H4 charts I may have reconsidered a long trade.

The 5 minute chart shows us a really nice area of price imbalance which has not yet been re-tested.



Below is a channel on the 1 minute chart designed to give a better concept of value in the price.



Here is the entry at price 1.10250, for a quick 5 pips with exit at 1.1030. The market reversed afterwards, so my analysis which told me to keep long positions strictly short-term was correct. This makes sense when coupled with the macro situation in Greece!



Good luck with your trading today and remember to ask yourself how issues around the world affect affect the market in which you are trading.

Mike

Now that I've shared a couple of my trades along with the basics of how/why I trade, I'd like to shift the focus to some of the major struggles that we as retail traders face when trying to not only become, but remain consistently profitable.

Thought For the Week

One idea I have briefly touched on is that of using some kind of goal, or a combination of goals as a guide for your trading. Goal-setting is a well documented strategy used across a number of performance fields. The simple act of setting a goal to work towards can be very helpful, but there are a few techniques that you can use to dramatically improve your performance, risk management and general competence at trading in the markets.

Take a moment now to ask yourself why it is you trade. Regardless of your answer it is important to understand that no matter how you trade and no matter how achievable your trading goals may seem, everything boils down to one irrefutable fact. Trading is a performance art.

To understand this fully can be very liberating as a retail trader. The level of emotional control that this understanding gives you can have a huge impact on your ability. Consider this; a retail trader with some experience in the markets has a goal to become a full-time trader working from home with his/her own money within 12 months. For simplicity we'll name him Frank. Now from the very outset, the fact that Frank has a goal in mind is a positive thing. However as time progresses he is inevitably going to experience hardships or downturns in his account equity. On an emotional level Frank will find it very difficult to ignore the emotional impact of these downturns. A typical behavioural response to a series of losses may be to increase trade size in order to try to make back prior losses. This kind of over-trading is incredibly harmful because there is so much at stake both in terms of your account equity and belief in your own ability.

When Frank has a series of winning trades a different problem can occur. He may feel invincible, as though the market cannot possibly go against him and that whatever he does he will be correct. While this is obviously an irrational belief, it is undeniable that subconsciously it is very easy to fall into this trap. I myself have come undone in the past thanks to this very flaw. I've had a month in the past where I literally didn't take a single loss in four full weeks of trading and took home profits of around 50% of my account size, only to lose all of the gains and then some in the following week because of overconfidence.

You might tell yourself that it isn't affecting you, but from experience I can say that it is more likely that on a subconscious level something changes in your trading when either of these two scenarios occur.

A sound methodology, solid tactics, good risk management and a strong work ethic are all key tools in a successful trader's arsenal. Having said that, an individual can have all of these elements in droves and yet lack the emotional control to enforce them. Without a proper approach for controlling one's emotions it is very difficult to trade effectively.

I've found in my journey as a trader that applying the principles of goal setting to my day-to-day trading has made more of a difference to my bottom line of profitability than any system, any trader education course or any other piece of advice I have ever received.

The key to this is simple. If you're not familiar with the SMART system of goal-setting, have a quick look online and make sure your goal fits the criteria. Let's use another example: Ted is an intermediate retail trader with a $10,000 account. He trades short term patterns in the forex market with clearly defined stops and targets. Based on his trading frequency and skill set he believes that it is possible to double his account size in one year's time.

Let's assume Ted's goal of $10,000 of net profit is the long-term goal. I would then break this goal down further to determine the percentage gain he needs to generate on average in a typical trading day and week. In order to double his account in a year he will need to make just under 0.3% profit on a daily basis (note that this assumes he's increasing his position size based on total account equity; compound interest). This is around 1.5% per week.

Here's the penny-drop moment. In my personal experience this one adjustment changed my trading from mild competence (breakeven) to consistent profitability. When I trade, I am actively focused on my daily trading goal. I constantly ask myself "does this decision help me reach my target for today?" I have found that trading with the goal in mind stops me from thinking too much or too little about things that matter less. Doing this gives me a lens through which to view the markets that orients me toward my targets and helps me to ignore anything which could distract me from the goal.

Think about it! The goal is all that matters. If a trade is beginning to go against you and the reasons which prompted you to enter the trade are no longer valid, ask yourself how best to take your present situation and get from there to your goal. In most situations where your original reason for entering no longer holds this will be to simply close the trade at a small loss. What does this do to your account and performance? It allows you to cut your losses ruthlessly! This is an example of a concept that most of us are intellectually aware of, and yet not intuitively aware. Using a goal as a lens allows you as a performer to make correct decisions at moments in time where the vast majority of people would choke because of a lack of emotional control.

If trading can be boiled down to a performance, then all that truly matters is that you perform. Try setting clearly defined goals for yourself and repeatedly enforcing them. It takes bucketloads of self-discipline but it just might help you along the road to trading success.

Mike

Absolutely brilliant!

Excellent

Carry on.

Evening everyone,

I hope this week has been a profitable and/or educational one for you

I'm going to share a trade with you that I just closed. It highlights an important aspect of my mindset and approach that I've found to be very helpful. There are several different ways of taking profits on a trade that has gone well. Some people like to set a break-even stop loss and let the trade run, perhaps using a trailing stop which allows them to protect their profits while retaining the potential for more gains. Others like to close their position in full at a set target, while still more will close a part of the position at a level and then let the trade run. What's important to note is that these different methods of taking profits suit specific styles of trading better than others.

My main trading strategy is an incredibly short-term one. I typically scalp 1-minute time frame movements. This is a very difficult approach to trading because it tests the trader emotionally and mechanically in such a way that if your decision-making speed slacks for even a few moments you can lose a significant amount of money. I do not use the same profit-taking strategy for every trade. The following trade is an example of a low time frame scalp with only limited higher time frame support. If I'm not looking for a bigger picture move on this kind of trade, what kind of profit taking strategy do you think will work the best?

Using channels as I do on graphs, I help myself to set reasonable targets that capture value in the instrument. Because of this, I use a specific target to close 100% of my trade on a position like this one. If I believed from my research (which would have been done prior to opening any positions!) that the price had more room to move in my direction, then I might consider a different form of profit taking. The key point to take away here is that it is a good idea to think dynamically about what kind of profit taking method will provide you with maximum value in the current trade. Greed, hope and fear should have no part in this process. I cannot stress this enough. Your mission is to determine what is the most reasonable way to extract value from the current position.



You can see on this tick chart that my timing and aim was almost perfect. You shouldn't expect to pick exact tops and bottoms like this (I certainly don't!) but it certainly is beautiful to look at when it happens. Unfortunately I only scaled into a fairly small position on this one with only a few mini lots...



If you want to know more about profit taking strategies, have a skim through some of the different systems on this forum and research how different traders close their trades in profit. See if you can find anything interesting that may at least influence the way you think about profits in your personal system. If you have any questions of course feel free to ask!

Happy trading!
Mike

Hello there!

I've been away for a bit over a week on a ski trip, feeling more than ready to get back into trading after a short break.

Here's a trade I've been planning since this morning; I've put on a small to medium position already and may add to it depending on how the situation unfolds. We're looking at a long entry from around 1.0950.

Based on the price action's behaviour below this channel on the 1-hourly chart (see below), I'm predicting that there is a high probability that the price of the EURUSD will ascend to around 1.1 to 1.1025 in the next 24 hours. My risk to reward is approximately 4:1 on this trade, so even if it doesn't work out in this particular instance we'll be doing just fine.

This is an example of my longer-term trading style. You'll notice there is an area of demand imbalance that the price has already reacted to, this in conjunction with the fact that we're seeing reversal candles at the very base of our current trend channel makes a strong case for this long trade.




Mike

Can we see one of your consistently profitable trade explorer?

tnx

Thanks for sharing this, I will attempt to add some of this to my trading. Looking forward to more posts.

Hi Everyone!

I'm very sorry for the lack of content over the last few weeks; life gets in the way sometimes as I'm sure you know!
I've still been trading, the last few weeks have been great, I'm testing out some new ideas while still trading my old ones.

I've just closed a trade that actually highlights a really important concept that I'd like to share with you. You may have heard from several professional traders that they tend to only actively monitor the markets for a couple of hours a day at most. Some might say this is a lazy approach to trading and that if you want to trade professionally you should be spending large amounts of time every day trading in order to succeed. I would disagree with this statement.

Obviously it depends on your strategy and a number of other factors, but for me it all boils down to one simple fact. I'll use the following illustration to explain.

Let's say you have a strategy that pays (or has a risk to reward ratio of) 1:1 ignoring commission. You're scouring the markets one morning searching for opportunities when you find a price action pattern that fits with your overall view of how that market is likely to behave. From past experience you estimate that a trade from this level may have an around 60% chance of succeeding. Do you take the trade? Of course the answer is absolutely yes.

In this situation the trader has a positive expected value (EV). Let's say his standard target would be $100. Can you work out what his exact EV is in the long run given this information? If you don't know what the term expected value means, I would implore you to spend some quality time researching the topic. A trader who doesn't understand expected value should not be trading.

There hasn't been many good set-ups for me today. This is pretty normal for a Monday before the Euro/NY sessions begin. The reason I don't trade Monday mornings very often isn't because I'm lazy, rather it's because I understand that my EV is typically not very high on trades made during that session. So I waited until later in the day when there was a higher likelihood of profitable trade setups.

The screenshot below shows the first trade I made today, and serves as a reminder that you should try not to spend hours staring at charts when there's nothing to do. What will you do in this situation? You'll probably get bored and make a trade that you shouldn't have.

Wait patiently until a high-probability opportunity arises, and try to minimise the time you spend trading when there are limited opportunities.

If you want an example of something you can and probably should spend a lot of time doing, that's back and forward testing strategies, developing ideas and, most importantly, getting educated! Chart time is still important, but when it comes to actual trading be careful about how you spend it, and be aware of your mental state at all times.




Happy Trading!
Mike

Hi Lapras,

Thanks for your question! Unlike the majority of traders I don't actually use MT4, but instead use a platform called cTrader. I find it to be a lot more modern an intuitive, although it isn't without its imperfections.

cTrader isn't compatible with FF's Trade Explorer (to my knowledge), I do have a couple of trade explorers from previous years when I did use MT4 but they're mostly mildly embarassing/awful.

I still make plenty of mistakes, but I now try to only make +EV decisions. The other thing I find that helps me now is that I trade with a pretty substantial amount of money compared to when I started. If there's one thing I've learned it's that the best way to make money is to have it in the first place. It sounds so obvious but if you aim to make $1,000 from a $100,000 account it's substantially easier, even with leverage, than making $1,000 when you start with $1,000.

Cheers,
Mike

Hi,

I like your approach and agree with you on the ideas you laid out here.
In the last trade you posted though, I was surprised not to see the green ADX exceeding 40 . Maybe I missed something..

Have a nice day,
Dragos

Hi Dragos,

Great pickup, I was wondering if somebody would notice this! Before I go on, I just want to reiterate that the idea behind this thread is not so much to share yet another system with which to trade, but rather to share an entire mindset and approach to trading profitably using any system.

As you've so observantly noticed, the trade in question does not meet all of the entry requirements I laid out in the first post. Why then did I take the trade? It comes back to what I discussed about expected value (EV). I actually trade 3 different "strategies" if you will. They're all based on my understanding of market dynamics and supply and demand, however I use different triggers to enter positions. I've only shared one of them on this thread

This one was more about looking at the price action activity near the round level and using that as a basis for shorting; basically I determined that the price was likely to bounce away from the level and if I could get into the market with a good risk to reward ratio I'd have a very +EV trade on my hands. As you can see, the market broke out on the downside and actually travelled to about 4:1 on my risk which is pretty ideal.

I hope this answers your question. I will try to explain the rationale for each trade I post in more detail, however like I've said already I'm all about developing and improving my concept of the market and using that as a basis for trades, and that's what this thread is meant for. The system you will trade the best is the one you understand the most, and if its a system you developed, backtested and optimised yourself then you're only setting yourself up for success.

Good luck in your trading today!
Mike

I'm setting up for a long position on the EURUSD for later today. As you can see in the screenshot of my 1H chart, the price has retreated to the bottom end of a down-trending channel. I'll be taking almost any long signal that arises today. There were a couple of opportunities in the late NY session, but of course I have to sleep at some point during the day

I'll probably try to scale into this one in small increments every time I see a price worth entering. In fact as I'm writing this I've begun putting on a small long position.



Mike