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NZ Retail Trade

  • #21
  • Aug 13, 2006 6:12pm Aug 13, 2006 6:12pm
Quote
You may just be right Burger King. I would like to hope this is the case instead of the brokers moving price.

Actually, MoM% data was the first news I heard over at TradeTheNews.com... And I heard the announcer saying "Better that expected" - a natural SELL instinct should trigger. I did not even bother listening further and concentrated alll attention to the chart for a reversal but saw the price climbing instead of falling to my surprise..


Quoting forexplayer
Merlin,
Can you tell me where you get your NZ news items from? I want to go to that source to see when and what the movement was in the previous months for the NZ news item we have started following here at FF.

Thanks
I personally have started to "compile" news and their effects on the currency.

This way, I can easily plan either to straddle or to reverse straddle certain news.

ForexFactory have a long list of past calendars; just pull out a chart to the dates and we can get the effects... Anyone wants to join/help this effort?
  • #22
  • Aug 13, 2006 6:19pm Aug 13, 2006 6:19pm
Quoting BurgerKing
And I heard the announcer saying "Better that expected" - a natural SELL instinct should trigger.
??? do you mean BUY instinct?
Relax and be happy.
  • #23
  • Aug 13, 2006 6:22pm Aug 13, 2006 6:22pm
Merlin,

Do you have an excel or other form of file for the previous calendars?
ie, I;d like to know when US PPI comes out, then get the chart... same thing goes for other news releases as well of course..
  • #24
  • Aug 13, 2006 6:22pm Aug 13, 2006 6:22pm
Quoting BurgerKing
QoQ% figure was worse that expected (-0.5% vs 0.4%) - and since this is a higher level figure, perhaps it dominated the data...
good theory, but incorrect. the q/q data is much less important than the m/m. last quarter is old, boring news. the latest month is where the excitement is
Relax and be happy.
  • #25
  • Aug 13, 2006 6:24pm Aug 13, 2006 6:24pm
Quoting BurgerKing
Merlin,

Do you have an excel or other form of file for the previous calendars?
ie, I;d like to know when US PPI comes out, then get the chart... same thing goes for other news releases as well of course..
yeah we are considering all this, but there are many complications including time zone changes, revisions etc. if there is something like this already out there id be interested to know...
Relax and be happy.
  • #26
  • Aug 13, 2006 6:26pm Aug 13, 2006 6:26pm
Quoting merlin
??? do you mean BUY instinct?
I do mean SELL the NZDUSD pair so it dipped down (temporarily).

Quote
good theory, but incorrect. the q/q data is much less important than the m/m. last quarter is old, boring news. the latest month is where the excitement is

OH! i thought higher time frame holds higher importance? thats new for me.
  • #27
  • Aug 13, 2006 6:28pm Aug 13, 2006 6:28pm
Quoting BurgerKing
I do mean SELL the NZDUSD pair so it dipped down (temporarily).
well if you heard "better than expected", you would want to buy because NZDUSD is headed higher (in theory). right? im not understanding why you would sell here, unless you are selling the reversal, but then you would want to wait until it spiked up and ran out of steam.
Relax and be happy.
  • #28
  • Aug 13, 2006 6:30pm Aug 13, 2006 6:30pm
Quoting merlin
yeah we are considering all this, but there are many complications including time zone changes, revisions etc. if there is something like this already out there id be interested to know...
Initially, I wont need "specific" data results - just the news type (ie, PPI, GDP, CPI, NFP...) and the date it was released; no figures yet..

I just wanted to gather news types and the effects it has on the currency, ie, will it spike and reverse, or will it create a strong trend (and stay there), will it cause a slow trend (lingering movement).... etc...

This way, we can predict if we should straddle or the reverse..
  • #29
  • Aug 13, 2006 6:32pm Aug 13, 2006 6:32pm
Quoting merlin
well if you heard "better than expected", you would want to buy because NZDUSD is headed higher (in theory). right? im not understanding why you would sell here, unless you are selling the reversal, but then you would want to wait until it spiked up and ran out of steam.
Good news should strengthen the currency right? Therefore, NZDUSD should go down. <-- so i thought it should at first light of that announcement.
  • #30
  • Aug 13, 2006 6:35pm Aug 13, 2006 6:35pm
Quoting BurgerKing
Good news should strengthen the currency right? Therefore, NZDUSD should go down. <-- so i thought it should at first light of that announcement.
BK,
You got it reverse, it is the NZDUSD and not the USDNZD. So a better than expected news on the NZ should move the pair up, not down.
  • #31
  • Aug 13, 2006 6:38pm Aug 13, 2006 6:38pm
Quoting BurgerKing
Good news should strengthen the currency right? Therefore, NZDUSD should go down. <-- so i thought it should at first light of that announcement.
LOL you got me questioning myself over here. for a second thought i was crazy but then i realize you are confused...

when the NZD strengthens, the NZDUSD goes UP!

the first currency mentioned is the one that acts "normal" (ie up is strength, down is weakness).
Relax and be happy.
  • #32
  • Aug 13, 2006 6:45pm Aug 13, 2006 6:45pm
Quoting merlin
LOL you got me questioning myself over here. for a second thought i was crazy but then i realize you are confused...

when the NZD strengthens, the NZDUSD goes UP!

the first currency mentioned is the one that acts "normal" (ie up is strength, down is weakness).
Merlin,

Factor in the timezone (BurgerKing is in the Phillipines), and the use of Mickey D's Golden Arches. That explain everyting man.....
  • #33
  • Aug 13, 2006 6:46pm Aug 13, 2006 6:46pm
Quoting forexplayer
BK,
You got it reverse, it is the NZDUSD and not the USDNZD. So a better than expected news on the NZ should move the pair up, not down.


:surprised



Indeed you are right! Darn, I mixed it up... (I have grown accustomed to trading US news where the reaction to EURUSD GBPUSD is the reverse of the news).

So perhaps, the reason for the DIP was because expectations were bad figures... the news was released about 30 seconds late....
  • #34
  • Aug 13, 2006 6:53pm Aug 13, 2006 6:53pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Merlin,

Factor in the timezone (BurgerKing is in the Phillipines), and the use of Mickey D's Golden Arches. That explain everyting man.....
LOL

better watch out we have quite a few easterners on here, and i hear they like to bank people
Relax and be happy.
  • #35
  • Last Post: Aug 14, 2006 9:23am Aug 14, 2006 9:23am
Quoting coon_70
yep i tried to straddel it to.
ended up 1buck to the positive.
spiked both my orders.
Congrats. I had a TP in on some shorts in Oanda that kicked in just at the bottom before the spike up. It's great to come home from a weekend in the mountains to find that.

Btw did you know a buck is dealer slang for one million dollars? Here's to hoping you really made a buck!
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