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NZ Retail Trade

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 13, 2006 4:32pm Aug 13, 2006 4:32pm
NZ Retail Trade figures will be released in about an hour's time.

According to estimates, NZ will have a bad Retail Trade figures. Will this cause NZD to go bear?
  • #2
  • Aug 13, 2006 4:40pm Aug 13, 2006 4:40pm
looks like we missed that one...got it up there now. we just started covering NZ this week, sorry for the roadbumps...
Relax and be happy.
  • #3
  • Aug 13, 2006 4:47pm Aug 13, 2006 4:47pm
Hi Merlin,

Are you the one updating FF's calendar?
Great Job!
  • #4
  • Aug 13, 2006 4:53pm Aug 13, 2006 4:53pm
im not the main updater but i make corrections if needed
Relax and be happy.
  • #5
  • Aug 13, 2006 5:07pm Aug 13, 2006 5:07pm
Anyone have experience trading the NZ on retail reports? Does it move the market if the numbers are stronger or weaker?
  • #6
  • Aug 13, 2006 5:22pm Aug 13, 2006 5:22pm
Kiwi and Aussie dollars move great on big news - Question is, is this news big enough?

But unfortunately, FXCM and NorthFinance are not accepting trades as of the moment - I cant participate.
  • #7
  • Aug 13, 2006 5:50pm Aug 13, 2006 5:50pm
Ok I just traded the NZ retails and the numbers came out better than expected and I was short so I lost -14 pips, thats cool. My question is did anyone watching this report notice that the price whipsawed. It went down to about .6315 and then shot up. DId anyone else see this on their charts, I just want to make sure my broker was not spiking the price in order to take out stops of those that were long. Please check your charts for this news release and tell me if anyone else sees whipsaw. Thanks
  • #8
  • Aug 13, 2006 5:52pm Aug 13, 2006 5:52pm
Kiwi did not rise much - about 40 pips only...

i was not going to straddle but buying/selling on the reversal.

again, fxcm and nf are not accepting orders... too bad.
  • #9
  • Aug 13, 2006 5:55pm Aug 13, 2006 5:55pm
Quoting Crestwind
My question is did anyone watching this report notice that the price whipsawed. It went down to about .6315 and then shot up. DId anyone else see this on their charts, I just want to make sure my broker was not spiking the price in order to take out stops of those that were long.
thats the same price action i saw, 6315 was the low. looks like the dealers went after the short straddle orders...
Relax and be happy.
  • #10
  • Aug 13, 2006 5:58pm Aug 13, 2006 5:58pm
Quoting BurgerKing
i was not going to straddle but buying/selling on the reversal.
i love this trade...when the market spikes on news, then doesnt followthru, you know there are a bunch of people that have to get out of the trade because its going in the wrong direction! that creates momentum to the opposite site, its nice little scalp...
Relax and be happy.
  • #11
  • Aug 13, 2006 5:58pm Aug 13, 2006 5:58pm
Quoting merlin
thats the same price action i saw, 6315 was the low. looks like the dealers went after the short straddle orders...
Really you dont think it was just whipsaw, you think ALL the broker spiked the price down just to take out short straddle??
  • #12
  • Aug 13, 2006 5:58pm Aug 13, 2006 5:58pm
Quoting Crestwind
Ok I just traded the NZ retails and the numbers came out better than expected and I was short so I lost -14 pips, thats cool. My question is did anyone watching this report notice that the price whipsawed. It went down to about .6315 and then shot up. DId anyone else see this on their charts, I just want to make sure my broker was not spiking the price in order to take out stops of those that were long. Please check your charts for this news release and tell me if anyone else sees whipsaw. Thanks
Both my FXCM and NF brokers were "offline". I pulled out MB Trading instead and did not see the price dipping below 20. Bid was 20 and ask was 40 though...

Over at Oanda, the price DID dipped down to 10s...
  • #13
  • Aug 13, 2006 5:58pm Aug 13, 2006 5:58pm
yep i tried to straddel it to.
ended up 1buck to the positive.
spiked both my orders.
  • #14
  • Aug 13, 2006 6:02pm Aug 13, 2006 6:02pm
Quoting coon_70
yep i tried to straddel it to.
ended up 1buck to the positive.
spiked both my orders.
Interesting. So even if I was on the right side of the trade I would have been stopped out.
  • #15
  • Aug 13, 2006 6:05pm Aug 13, 2006 6:05pm
I didn't stridle this one, but it did spike down first in oanda then shot up.
Target: Trading naked.
  • #16
  • Aug 13, 2006 6:06pm Aug 13, 2006 6:06pm
The moM % was better than expected (0.1% vs -0.4%)- perhaps that is what people heard first.

QoQ% figure was worse that expected (-0.5% vs 0.4%) - and since this is a higher level figure, perhaps it dominated the data...

bottom line, some news are worth the straddle. some - buy/sell the reversal.

Over at MB Tradng, I sold it at 53 and close at 40 (it was a demo though)... =(
  • #17
  • Aug 13, 2006 6:06pm Aug 13, 2006 6:06pm
Quoting Crestwind
Really you dont think it was just whipsaw, you think ALL the broker spiked the price down just to take out short straddle??
sure. i mean im not 100%, but that looked like a pretty typical run on orders. the interbank market collaborates on this stuff...
Relax and be happy.
  • #18
  • Aug 13, 2006 6:06pm Aug 13, 2006 6:06pm
Quoting merlin
im not the main updater but i make corrections if needed
Merlin,
Can you tell me where you get your NZ news items from? I want to go to that source to see when and what the movement was in the previous months for the NZ news item we have started following here at FF.

Thanks
  • #19
  • Aug 13, 2006 6:07pm Aug 13, 2006 6:07pm
Quoting Crestwind
Ok I just traded the NZ retails and the numbers came out better than expected and I was short so I lost -14 pips, thats cool. My question is did anyone watching this report notice that the price whipsawed. It went down to about .6315 and then shot up. DId anyone else see this on their charts, I just want to make sure my broker was not spiking the price in order to take out stops of those that were long. Please check your charts for this news release and tell me if anyone else sees whipsaw. Thanks

Yea I saw a lil whippage. On Oanda Chart the low was .6318
and then topped out at .6371

One day this market is going to be regulated so differances between brokerages wont happen.
  • #20
  • Aug 13, 2006 6:09pm Aug 13, 2006 6:09pm
Quoting BurgerKing
The moM % was better than expected (0.1% vs -0.4%)- perhaps that is what people heard first.

QoQ% figure was worse that expected (-0.5% vs 0.4%) - and since this is a higher level figure, perhaps it dominated the data...

bottom line, some news are worth the straddle. some - buy/sell the reversal.

Over at MB Tradng, I sold it at 53 and close at 40 (it was a demo though)... =(

You may just be right Burger King. I would like to hope this is the case instead of the brokers moving price.
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