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Discovering An Edge

  • #381
  • Jul 2, 2015 4:26am Jul 2, 2015 4:26am
1/3 off GCAD +10
  • #382
  • Jul 2, 2015 4:27am Jul 2, 2015 4:27am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} Hey vlad, so you dont make a mistKe. Check ur calender. Nfp is today. Friday is holiday. Hope that helps
!!! I did not know that!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #383
  • Jul 2, 2015 4:30am Jul 2, 2015 4:30am
second third off ECAD +20... SL moved to BE +5
As long as EUR remains strong will look for ultimate target just below 10 d ATR high
  • #384
  • Jul 2, 2015 4:33am Jul 2, 2015 4:33am
Quoting panamamike
{quote} I agree. I took AU and NU shorts earlier this evening for nice gains. Now avoiding USD pairs. Could be some partition squaring ahead of NFP etc. When a pair has been strong heading into big numbers, that often happens. Just my .02
Yes mike. Holding my usdjpy longs. I believe nfp numbers will be good and if bad will be stopped out ate Be or profit. But plan to take positions on any major dip on usdjpy
  • #385
  • Jul 2, 2015 4:34am Jul 2, 2015 4:34am
second third off Gcad + 20 ..... stop on remaining at +10 and jump every 10
  • #386
  • Jul 2, 2015 4:35am Jul 2, 2015 4:35am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} Yes mike. Holding my usdjpy longs. I believe nfp numbers will be good and if bad will be stopped out ate Be or profit. But plan to take positions on any major dip on usdjpy
Good plan.....I think the numbers will be good as well.
  • #387
  • Jul 2, 2015 4:35am Jul 2, 2015 4:35am
Bugger. Forgot to move my AUDNZD stops to account for my new analysis. Dammit! I was called away from desk... -50 x2 Grrr.
This has been hedged by the moves on CAD shorts (ie. Long ECAD/GCAD)
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #388
  • Jul 2, 2015 4:37am Jul 2, 2015 4:37am
GCAD stop hit +10.... Well damn, that was quick ...lol
  • #389
  • Jul 2, 2015 4:46am Jul 2, 2015 4:46am
USD Longs stopped out. Reloading between now and NFP.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #390
  • Jul 2, 2015 4:47am Jul 2, 2015 4:47am
I suspect that the US want a better price for their longs than their Asian (open @ 12323) and London (open @ 12340) counterparts. So will be eyeing moves against these prices.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #391
  • Jul 2, 2015 4:54am Jul 2, 2015 4:54am
Quoting vlady1974
USD Longs stopped out. Reloading between now and NFP.
Hmmmm.....both USD and JPY relatively strong on the day....JPY strengthening. Personally, if I were trading USD today I would look to get in on a pullback vs the weak currencies of the day. Just my .02 ....... "Trade what you see....not what u think". That being the case, I hope you crush it and need a wheelbarrow to take all your $ to the bank ��
  • #392
  • Jul 2, 2015 5:00am Jul 2, 2015 5:00am
Trailing stop hit on last third ECAD ... Out +5.
  • #393
  • Jul 2, 2015 5:12am Jul 2, 2015 5:12am
FWIW, my analysis of what happens on good NFP: the market will begin to price in a rate hike in SEPT to a more fully extent, and perhaps a second Nov/dec hike. This will, over the next two months leading into Sept strengthen both the USD (the most) and JPY as well relative to the other currencies. Risk will begin to come off the table and much further declines will be seen in the commodity currencies. EUR is a Separate animal, though and once this current issue resolves, the QE program will again dominate its direction and further weaken the euro (any thrust higher I will trade, but IMO it will set up the best trading opportunity for several months when the euphoria fades by shorting EUR especially vs JPY). I am inclined to see GBP weaken, however, solid numbers could also begin to price in an early 2016 rate hike and will provide great opportunities vs the commodity currencies as well. That is my summer forecast ..... But like the weather man , I could very well be wrong, so bring an umbrella just in case.
  • #394
  • Jul 2, 2015 5:22am Jul 2, 2015 5:22am
my favourite trades in non currency market will be to buy US treasury bear etfs, with a specific focus on longer durations. As historically low rates begin to climb, especially on the longer end of the rate horizon, treasuries are going to take a big hit. Take a gander at their charts on a 5 year basis.....LOTS of room to run.
  • #395
  • Jul 2, 2015 5:22am Jul 2, 2015 5:22am
Quoting vlady1974
Bugger. Forgot to move my AUDNZD stops to account for my new analysis. Dammit! I was called away from desk... -50 x2 Grrr. This has been hedged by the moves on CAD shorts (ie. Long ECAD/GCAD)
ECAD out +22
GCAD out +25
USD out +37
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #396
  • Jul 2, 2015 5:25am Jul 2, 2015 5:25am
Quoting panamamike
FWIW, my analysis of what happens on good NFP: the market will begin to price in a rate hike in SEPT to a more fully extent, and perhaps a second Nov/dec hike. This will, over the next two months leading into Sept strengthen both the USD (the most) and JPY as well relative to the other currencies. Risk will begin to come off the table and much further declines will be seen in the commodity currencies. EUR is a Separate animal, though and once this current issue resolves, the QE program will again dominate its direction and further weaken the euro...
Liking this mate. I'm embracing your view on the YEN longs against EUR shorts.
I'm always uncertain on EUR these days and I've given up trying to determine the terminus of Wave 4. The surrogate of this sentiment is always long the Dollar but as you say the fundamentals of dollar are different to EURO ie. the rate hike. It's currency wars indeed!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #397
  • Jul 2, 2015 5:40am Jul 2, 2015 5:40am
EURAUD
4H closing in 20 minutes time, signalling a long on breakout.

Edit: Projected target 14933
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD-4H.JPG Size: 126 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #398
  • Jul 2, 2015 5:44am Jul 2, 2015 5:44am
Quoting panamamike
my favourite trades in non currency market will be to buy US treasury bear etfs, with a specific focus on longer durations. As historically low rates begin to climb, especially on the longer end of the rate horizon, treasuries are going to take a big hit. Take a gander at their charts on a 5 year basis.....LOTS of room to run.
Have absolutely no idea how to trade T-Bills mate.... nor options for that matter. Tried my hand at Binaries and couldn't get my head round 'em. Time - just a different animal. Though in theory according to Gann, Time = Price.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #399
  • Jul 2, 2015 6:10am Jul 2, 2015 6:10am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Have absolutely no idea how to trade T-Bills mate.... nor options for that matter. Tried my hand at Binaries and couldn't get my head round 'em. Time - just a different animal. Though in theory according to Gann, Time = Price.
Take a look at symbol TBF 20+ yr treasury bear ETF
  • #400
  • Jul 2, 2015 6:14am Jul 2, 2015 6:14am
Quoting vlady1974
EURAUD 4H closing in 20 minutes time, signalling a long on breakout. Edit: Projected target 14933 {image}
I am long on hourly open 1.4562 T 10 d ATR high at 1.4610
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