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Discovering An Edge

  • #361
  • Jul 1, 2015 8:41am Jul 1, 2015 8:41am
Bit the dust on both of 'em euraud and gbpaud. Typical when the dollar is trending the crosses are harder to trade.
  • #362
  • Edited Jul 2, 2015 1:12am Jul 1, 2015 10:11pm | Edited Jul 2, 2015 1:12am
Yesterday was typical of a Wednesday, consolidation day.

AUDCAD -20 SL
GBPNZD +3 SL
USDCAD +9 SL
EURAUD +0 SL
USDCAD +7 SL
AUDCAD +2 SL
EURUSD +5 SL

NET +6

Open trades:
2 x USDJPY
AUDCAD
EURCAD - prodigal son has almost returned.

These 2 open CAD trades were at one point -180 pips in drawdown with GBPNZD. The saving grace was the USD. It also goes to show that when work is a BIG distraction, it's better to stay away. I've seen some stats that show MON and FRI have the moves of the market, leaving TUE to THU as "meh" days, so this could be another "stay away unless you are jumping on a solid evidence based trend" day
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #363
  • Jul 1, 2015 10:27pm Jul 1, 2015 10:27pm
50EMA BOARD
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A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #364
  • Jul 1, 2015 10:29pm Jul 1, 2015 10:29pm
100EMA BOARD
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A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #365
  • Jul 1, 2015 10:30pm Jul 1, 2015 10:30pm
200EMA BOARD
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A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #366
  • Edited Jul 2, 2015 1:12am Jul 1, 2015 10:35pm | Edited Jul 2, 2015 1:12am
Looks like all round USD, GBP strength and NZD weakness.

However, I would be studying each individual pair, eg. USDJPY as JPY is show strength for some, like CHFJPY where CHF is a surrogate for USD but CHF is also being devalued against EUR....so hence the strength of JPY.

Since I don't have access to Order Flow, I don't have a clue as to what moves are under way beyond the board that will have a fundi reason. Suffice to say that VIX volatility has returned and this usually means bearish stock markets, watch S&P, which also means rising USD as risk is taken off stocks. Hence dollar strength.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #367
  • Edited Jul 2, 2015 1:12am Jul 1, 2015 10:41pm | Edited Jul 2, 2015 1:12am
Long GBPCAD @ 19658.2
Long USDJPY @ 12336.7

I would probably buy USDJPY on dips, as my friend Ephisi has suggested

Edit:
GBPCAD target set to....wait for it 20500 based on Daily tf breakout. Yellow is today's open.
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A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #368
  • Jul 1, 2015 10:47pm Jul 1, 2015 10:47pm
USDJPY
Breakout targets in green. Note that mean reversion has begun on 4H so the consolidation is likely to continue today. However, gap has not closed and I suspect a big NFP move tomorrow.
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A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #369
  • Jul 1, 2015 10:54pm Jul 1, 2015 10:54pm
USD longs set to 1 target each.
Long AUDNZD @ 11427 average, target 11482 & 11819 ( yeah the latter is an effing big number, let's see if I have the stamina LOL )
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #370
  • Jul 2, 2015 12:39am Jul 2, 2015 12:39am
I'm reading news that EU inflationary pressures are at an all time high. This could explain why EUR is very resilient, despite Greece. Money Printing is working it is suggested.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #371
  • Edited 1:06am Jul 2, 2015 12:55am | Edited 1:06am
FWIW....I am showing strength in euro, USD, and JPY. Weakness in NZD, AUD and cHF.
  • #372
  • Jul 2, 2015 1:00am Jul 2, 2015 1:00am
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  • #373
  • Jul 2, 2015 1:04am Jul 2, 2015 1:04am
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  • #374
  • Jul 2, 2015 1:11am Jul 2, 2015 1:11am
Quoting panamamike
FWIW....I am showing strength in euro, USD, and JPY. Weakness in NZD, AUD and cHF.
I agree Mike.
AUD trade is killing me, but I'm gonna suffer the drawdown cos of my higher level payoff.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #375
  • Jul 2, 2015 1:40am Jul 2, 2015 1:40am
USDJPY SL moved to trailing.
ECAD & GCAD finally moved to BE.

Slowly taking risks off the table!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #376
  • Jul 2, 2015 1:51am Jul 2, 2015 1:51am
Ia m long ECAD 1.3970 ... ultimate T is just below 10 d ATR high at 1.4062
  • #377
  • Jul 2, 2015 1:58am Jul 2, 2015 1:58am
1/3 off +10
  • #378
  • Jul 2, 2015 2:12am Jul 2, 2015 2:12am
Quoting vlady1974
USDJPY Breakout targets in green. Note that mean reversion has begun on 4H so the consolidation is likely to continue today. However, gap has not closed and I suspect a big NFP move tomorrow. {image}
Hey vlad, so you dont make a mistKe. Check ur calender. Nfp is today. Friday is holiday. Hope that helps
  • #379
  • Jul 2, 2015 2:15am Jul 2, 2015 2:15am
L G cad 1.9702
  • #380
  • Jul 2, 2015 2:24am Jul 2, 2015 2:24am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} Hey vlad, so you dont make a mistKe. Check ur calender. Nfp is today. Friday is holiday. Hope that helps
I agree. I took AU and NU shorts earlier this evening for nice gains. Now avoiding USD pairs. Could be some partition squaring ahead of NFP etc. When a pair has been strong heading into big numbers, that often happens. Just my .02
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