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Stocks - specifically the liquid energy sector

  • #21
  • May 7, 2015 2:17pm May 7, 2015 2:17pm
Bankers Petroleum posted their first quarter results today. It seems as though it was a close shave, and a good job they had a wad in the bank.....

Even so, they made a profit [ ] but I imagine they are glad to see the price of Brent back above $60.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #22
  • May 7, 2015 3:55pm May 7, 2015 3:55pm
Quoting Exodus
Bankers Petroleum posted their first quarter results today. It seems as though it was a close shave, and a good job they had a wad in the bank..... Even so, they made a profit [ ] but I imagine they are glad to see the price of Brent back above $60.
Read something the other day where it said the Saudis were gonna continue pumping, perhaps even harder. Wonder how long crude can stay this high, oversupply remains, we have had a lul because of the tankers were being filled up
  • #23
  • May 8, 2015 3:54am May 8, 2015 3:54am
The Saudis are smart. They are supplying a large part of Asia, and they are pushing prices up a bit. They seem to have moved, or be moving, their business away from the regions of the world where oversupply is at its worst.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #24
  • May 12, 2015 12:55pm May 12, 2015 12:55pm
a lot of traders like ugaz for natural gas instead of futures because it gives you leverage on the stock market without using a futures account which saves setting up a new futures account.
  • #25
  • May 12, 2015 3:04pm May 12, 2015 3:04pm
Quoting b.shelton
a lot of traders like ugaz for natural gas instead of futures because it gives you leverage on the stock market without using a futures account which saves setting up a new futures account.
UGAZ is a leveraged ETF which can be used for a short-term trade but don't hold it long-term unless you're short. The way the leveraged ETFs are calculated makes them perform worse than the underlying over the long-term.
I short DGAZ (leveraged-inverse ETF) & long UNG when I want to take a bullish position & hold longer-term.

Look @ the 1 year comparison of UGAZ, UNG & Nat. Gas Futures. Notice the percentage change in 1 year.
UGAZ=leveraged ETF
UNG=ETF that is Not leveraged
Nat. Gas Futures=front month contract
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  • #26
  • May 14, 2015 6:49am May 14, 2015 6:49am
Evidence today (well yesterday actually) that oil producers are viewing the current price trends as temporary.

"Premier also started to hedge a portion of its 2016 forecast production during the period with the aim of taking advantage of the rising forward curve.
As at 12 May, Premier had sold forward 3.5 mmbbls of dated Brent and 72,000 mt of high sulphur fuel oil at an average price of $68.7/bbl and $400/mt, respectively."

All of which gives me hope that I will be able to get in at a better price if I just wait a while longer.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #27
  • Jun 30, 2015 1:32am Jun 30, 2015 1:32am
It is with interest that I note the almost complete lack of attention paid to the Argentine ruling that oil companies' assets in the Falklands arena should be seized. If this is the total extent of any grumblings then perhaps that is Ok. However in the past there has been fighting over that region. I can foresee a situation where a president seeking some distraction from local troubles may use this as a convenient distraction.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #28
  • Jun 30, 2015 7:40am Jun 30, 2015 7:40am
Quoting Exodus
One of those pleasant surprises just happened to me. A stock that I bought recently has gone through the roof. Chariot Oil & Gas, spiked up 35% at one point today which would have given me an out at +60% (in 2 weeks). It was a pleasant surprise because I was out at the time collecting daughter on her return from Uni. Not that I would bail at this juncture - but it would be nice to know what the rumour is......? Unfortunately, it being a high risk bet, I only put in 1k .........................
what broker do you use to trade this ? iam with city index here in the u.k., and they dont list this stock
  • #29
  • Jun 30, 2015 10:29am Jun 30, 2015 10:29am
Quoting whatfx
{quote} what broker do you use to trade this ? iam with city index here in the u.k., and they dont list this stock
There are three or four companies with direct interest in the Falklands area. I have bought stocks in at least 2 of those companies.

So I am using an un-leveraged stock deal account.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #30
  • Jun 30, 2015 6:57pm Jun 30, 2015 6:57pm
Quoting Exodus
{quote} There are three or four companies with direct interest in the Falklands area. I have bought stocks in at least 2 of those companies. So I am using an un-leveraged stock deal account.

assuming you had no prior knowledge of those 3 or 4 companies, how did you find them out, did you use a filtering process or data mining ?
  • #31
  • Jul 1, 2015 2:08am Jul 1, 2015 2:08am
Quoting whatfx
{quote} assuming you had no prior knowledge of those 3 or 4 companies, how did you find them out, did you use a filtering process or data mining ?
I think the answer is data mining. I spent a lot of time, and continue to spend a lot of time, reading about any prospective targets.
I used this website to look at companies in the oil and gas E&P sector. Also useful for discovering who is running the company and from where.
I have also looked at other sectors as my interests directed me.

I then used websites which record notifications published on the LSE to access historical company annual accounts and trading statements.
I also use the LSE website for more immediate data such as recent trade data - only useful for companies whose trading volumes are low, IMHO.

I was not initially looking to invest in the Falklands arena, I was merely inspecting company data for suitable targets when the oil price crash depressed the share prices of E&P companies. So I looked for reasons why their prices has collapsed, the level of debt, the geographic region(s) in which they operate, their sensitivity to the price of oil, and where they are prospecting along with a 'feel' for likely success.

It appears that the majority or all of the companies looking in the Falklands theatre are small. Therefore they cooperate on drilling and seismic data costs and the cooperation appears in their company reports.

The three companies I am aware of who are operating in the Falklands region are:-
...Falklands Oil & Gas
...Premier Oil
...Rockhopper

I have some stock from the first two of those. I expect Premier to actually produce from their discoveries, and I expect that the other two will sell their licences to Shell, Chevron or whoever as soon as the yield becomes demonstrable.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #32
  • Jul 1, 2015 4:31pm Jul 1, 2015 4:31pm
Quoting Exodus
{quote} I think the answer is data mining. I spent a lot of time, and continue to spend a lot of time, reading about any prospective targets. I used this website to look at companies in the oil and gas E&P sector. Also useful for discovering who is running the company and from where. I have also looked at other sectors as my interests directed me. I then used websites which record notifications published on the LSE to access historical company annual accounts and trading statements. I also use the LSE website...
which websites do you use to access company accounts and trading statements.
  • #33
  • Jul 2, 2015 3:24am Jul 2, 2015 3:24am
Quoting whatfx
{quote} which websites do you use to access company accounts and trading statements.
How much are you going to pay me to do your analysis for you?
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #34
  • Jul 15, 2015 11:25am Jul 15, 2015 11:25am
When you look around the world you see governments and companies exploiting their natural resources for the good of their community - usually.

...but not in the UK. Dumb F**k councillors with little understanding, except who will be voting against them at the next round, block the exploration of/for gas using modern techniques. No consideration to the fact that UK plc has to buy most of its gas from abroad, nor of what that does to costs and supply considerations. Only thoughts are for the rumours of earthquakes that might be caused by the process. Or perhaps they fear an awful scar on the landscape.

This morning I heard that there are concerns about whether there would be temporary blackouts this coming winter. Time taken to erect a gas-powered generating facility can be as short as 18 months (using Rolls Royce RB211 jet engines, or similar). Time taken to build any other form of power station typically 10 years.

The spare generating capacity in the UK is slightly more than 1%. Yes that is one percent, better not leave the lights on....!

Long on candles and anything used to make them!

Originally from Reuters: https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/he...123153109.html
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #35
  • Jul 15, 2015 11:37am Jul 15, 2015 11:37am
You're still better off than us here at the southern tip of Africa, had 2hr load shedding in Cape Town two hours ago. Spare capacity of 1% is a luxury!!!
  • #36
  • Dec 2, 2015 2:14am Dec 2, 2015 2:14am
For those who like listening to Joanna Lumley....
http://thinkingaloud.aberdeen-asset....et-investing#/
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #37
  • Dec 14, 2015 7:41am Dec 14, 2015 7:41am
Just posted this in the oil 'n gas thread, which was prolly the wrong place.

Small oil companies really feeling the pinch.
From an operations update:
Despite Circle's low cost operations, trading remains very challenging due to a further weakening of global oil prices, varying production levels in NW Gemsa and the impact of macro events on payments from EGPC. As a result, and in conjunction with both the RBL extension and the December 2015 redetermination, discussions are ongoing regarding the borrowing base of the RBL facility under which $57.5 million is currently drawn. Following the redetermination the Company expect the borrowing base to be reduced and as a result there will be a moderate shortfall, although both parties are actively engaged in constructive dialogue to find a solution.

In light of the above, Circle is considering a number of options including a debt restructuring and/or an equity raise to right-size the balance sheet and ensure that the Company has sufficient cash flows to fund operations. The Board is working towards implementing any such transaction(s) by the end of the first quarter of 2016.

Actually.... considering that the Egyptian govt. buys direct from them they should be Ok, must watch....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #38
  • Dec 23, 2015 10:43am Dec 23, 2015 10:43am
Now is the winter of our discontent....
Especially if you are in the E&P section of the oil market.
Some bad news for a few smaller companies, courtesy of Motley Fool

"Analysts at investment bank Merrill Lynch have gone so far as to say that 2016 could be the year of capital injections for the oil explorers.
Capital markets are now closed to these companies leaving them with only one option, and that's to ask shareholders for additional cash."
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #39
  • Edited 3:48pm Dec 23, 2015 11:18am | Edited 3:48pm
Interesting how the spread between WTI and Crude is at parity.... WTI $36.80 ~ Brent $36.22 .. the spread was $13 In March, are we going to see WTI stay more expensive in 2016 ?


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Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #40
  • Edited 5:00pm Dec 23, 2015 3:20pm | Edited 5:00pm
It is going to get uglier I think, but I'm betting big on US oil companies, which is also a bet on Shale.

There is some pretty poor application of logic to the industry as a whole, people are always talking about Shale as if it is the end of the good times. My prediction is shale is going to end up the big winner out of all this, with increased market share, and more production than ever before.

Why is it I say that?

Shale productivity keeps improving and will continue to improve. It isn't even close to being the most expensive oil to extract. Offshore oil is considerably more expensive to find, to test, to develop and to extract. Shale on the whole is cheaper than off shore, and much cheaper than deep well drilling which is very expensive. Almost none of the UKs North Sea oil fields are profitable, the UK oil and gas will fold before US Shale, Brazil will fold before US Shale, Norway will fold before US Shale, many of the OPEC countries will fold before US Shale (OPEC has a basket cost average of low 30s for oil, but much of that average is because the Saudis, Kuwait, Iraq can pump oil at 10$ per barrel).

Shale is also de-centralised and unpolitical. Shale can pack up shop and hide focusing on only economic wells, the companies exist in a free market and don't have a budget deficit to fund. It can make the hard decisions easier as a result. Take Saudi Arabia, fiscal breakeven point is 100$ per barrel for oil, and oil makes up over 40% of their GDP, if the nationalised oil companies don't turn a good profit it isn't just the company that hurts but the enter country feels the pinch and that puts on huge political pressure which US Shale simply does not have to contend with.

OPEC may have lost pricing power, it control just over 30% of the oil market compared to 50% in the 80s. If it is true oil price may be more volatile in the future that benefits Shale. US Shale has shorter lead in times for new projects, the projects can be as big or as small as you like, the environment is well mapped and productivity is improving. Offshore is has a large lead in time, you have to go big when making a rig and is expensive for reasons above. If you are a company, not knowing where price is going to be in 10 years time, would you commit $10-20 billion for a new deep drilling well if you cannot guarantee it is going to run at a profit? or do you pick the lower cost, more mobile, more scalable Shale which you can wind up and wind down quickly in response to changing oil prices? You obviously pick Shale. Conocophillips has recently said it will, from 2017, be suspending all new and existing deep well drilling, it is the first company to do so and others will follow.

The write downs aren't over, the bankruptcies haven't even began. Shale will consolidate, the smaller companies will get taken over, the technology will move on, Shale will come out the other end leaner and more competitive than ever and the real loser will be offshore oil.
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