Menu
Sister Sites

Options

Bookmark Thread

First Page First Unread Last Page Last Post

Print Thread

Similar Threads

Silent room 2 replies

Silent Success of Patience 10 replies

My silent journal 4 replies

bo7a method... method for GBP/JPY 205 replies

Seeing Through the Silent Crash 4 replies

Attachments: Silent Service Method
Exit Attachments

Silent Service Method

Quoting clockwork71
{quote} As far as the zone, I just threw that up there. However, in general I think the EUR is WAY WAY WAY undervalued at the moment. Take a look at 1.15 on your longer-term charts. I think that is a major breakout when it happens. Also, I like the shorter-term trendline on the chart, and the 1.10 level to offer support. I will predict the future here: Greece will reach a short-term deal, and we will have a nice rally. You also have to ask this: Who is left to sell?
Yes, i actually have the EURUSD chart the same way as yours with the trendline and the S/R levels. I was just waiting for the price to break above 1.15, retrace for a test and wait for a buy signal there.
But i think you are right about EUR being undervalued and seems like theres no selling strength.. It should be a nice rally.

Are you gonna be buying from 1.10 support?


PS: By the way, thanks again for sticking around and sharing your knowledge CW.. This thread is my bible. My trading has improved 100% thanks to you!
May i ask which Interactive Broker do you use for stocks?

Cheers
Keep it simple All Time Return: na
I am not sure what you mean by which Interactive Broker?

this is the link to who I use......

https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php

As for buying at 1.10, we will see on how the market acts, but its a thought, yes. I also think that buying, holding, and adding above the 1.15 is my way to go as well.

Glad to hear that your trading is going so much better!

Chris
http://thetraderguy.com/nzdusd-forecast-june-24-2015/

This is an example of what I do now. I am actually an analyst for several companies as well....

Chris
Update on one of my favorite indices at the moment: Nikkei 225....

We have just reached a 18 year high as we are approaching 21,000 yen.

Still long EWJ.
Quoting clockwork71
http://thetraderguy.com/nzdusd-forecast-june-24-2015/ This is an example of what I do now. I am actually an analyst for several companies as well.... Chris
About the Interactive Broker.. forgive my "Rookieness" hahah. I read it somewhere at the beginning of the thread and since its Interactive Broker"s" I thought there were many. LOL!

Great forecast and update of Kiwi Dollar and Nikkei. I am actually happy to see my charts looking the same as yours and similar analysis!!

May I ask for some advice or tips at the time of doing Fundamentals? I still find myself quite confused on where and how to start.
I would appreciate it!

Cheers.
Guillermo
Keep it simple All Time Return: na
Fundamentals are tricky to be honest. I mean, there are a lot of ways to read an announcement. To be honest, I think if you look at the reaction to news events, quite often the "true" move doesn't happen for a while. In fact, most of the time I find that the overall trend prevails. However, this isn't to say that fundamentals can't change - surely they do.

It is impossible to have a "one size fits all" approach. I have found you are best off reading several different opinions. Eventually a consensus emerges. I would have never said this in the past, but I have since come to understand that central banks are being lead by the markets, not the other way around. This is especially true in the USA.

I would suggest that you read Bloomberg, Dennis Gartman, Futures Magazine Online, Wall Street Journal Online, and other people such as Jim Rodgers. However, above all else, follow the charts. When you are listening to someone that is a major player, and they are suggesting a trend change in gold for example, remember that they are playing with much less leverage than you, and as a result will have more time to wait. Just keep that in the back of your mind and then wait for the set up.

I would say that interest rates are important obviously, and learn about bond markets.

Bonds such as Japanese Government Bonds, US Treasuries, Bunds, etc are massive drivers of capital flow. And that capital flows across borders. The higher the demand for bonds, the higher the demand for a currency. (This is why the USD gains in value in times of concern, because people are buying Treasuries for safety.)

Start looking into bonds. It's important. But never think any of it replaces what the market is actually doing. That's the #1 rule.

Chris
Still waiting to see is USD/SEK will break down. This week has been positive so far, but Wednesday wasn't exactly impressive. This is the weekly chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdsekWEEK.jpg Size: 128 KB
If this kind of action holds for the day, we could see a nice trading opportunity to the upside. 141 is the top of the range. I think we will eventually go higher, but in the meantime it is all about the consolidation.....EUR/JPY daily

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.jpg Size: 139 KB
The CAC looks juicy at this point. I think I am going to look into an ETF as it looks "buy and hold"

The hammer from the last week has been not only broken to the upside, but it was a gap. On top of that, the candle went all the way to 5100. I think once we get above there, this market goes much higher. I also like buying on pullback in the yellow box as well. (I am going to go ahead and buy wherever though, as I will be holding for a few years.......) For my clients, I have been sending out recommendations for the CAC over the DAX for some time now.....although I like the DAX as well. (The Ibex looks ready to roll, as does the MIB)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cac.jpg Size: 89 KB
Want to see a great trend? Here it is: USD/ZAR....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: zar.jpg Size: 274 KB


The South African economy is growing, but at 1.4% estimated for the year in 2015. With a 25% unemployment rate, they need growth at 5%. In other words, it's a bit short at the moment, and as you may or may not know - South Africa is responsible for 80% of the world's platinum, and 11% of the world's gold. In other words, until metals get healthy, the Rand will probably be a bit soft. Also, you are pairing up with the US dollar, which of course is favored.
Quoting clockwork71
Fundamentals are tricky to be honest. I mean, there are a lot of ways to read an announcement. To be honest, I think if you look at the reaction to news events, quite often the "true" move doesn't happen for a while. In fact, most of the time I find that the overall trend prevails. However, this isn't to say that fundamentals can't change - surely they do. It is impossible to have a "one size fits all" approach. I have found you are best off reading several different opinions. Eventually a consensus emerges. I would have never said this in the past,...

Thanks for this Chris. I am gonna start reading all this, specially bond markets, but as you said.. always following the charts.

The other thing i am interested on, is understanding about commoditie currencies, exactly like you did with the Kiwi dollar and ZAR. I guess reading Bloomberg, etc i might learn some.

Thanks again!

Guillermo
Keep it simple All Time Return: na
Quoting guiyee
{quote} Thanks for this Chris. I am gonna start reading all this, specially bond markets, but as you said.. always following the charts. The other thing i am interested on, is understanding about commoditie currencies, exactly like you did with the Kiwi dollar and ZAR. I guess reading Bloomberg, etc i might learn some. Thanks again! Guillermo

Yeah, I would say another thing to never forget to look up is the various central banks. For example, a lot of the info I got on the Rand was directly from the S.A. central bank site.
Quoting clockwork71
{quote} Yeah, I would say another thing to never forget to look up is the various central banks. For example, a lot of the info I got on the Rand was directly from the S.A. central bank site.
Got it! Gonna be checking this too.

This month i made 15% profit by only looking at the charts .. Risking 2% each trade. Made only 6 trades the whole month of which i had 5 winners and 1 loser.

I think the biggest breakthrough i got from this thread is realizing that "I don't need to be in the market all the time".. In fact, theres no need to be EVER in the market, unless theres a good opportunity that meets my rules. This is such a simple thought, but yet so hard to understand!... Maybe i was lucky.. i dont really know yet, but what i do know is that i feel so much comfortable with my trading now.

Gotta say, i wrote down about 8 pages in my notebook from this thread of really important and useful information (The whole thread is useful but i just made a short version for myself)
If there is someone who is still out there looking for the "holy grail" strategy or the magic formula of indicators to make you rich.. I would recommend you to stop doing that and take your time to read this thread... Trust me.. Is gonna take you to a whole new psychology level!

Anyways, any thoughts of why such a huge weekly gap? It actually touched my EURCAD TP so i'm happy with it! hahah
Keep it simple All Time Return: na
Quoting guiyee
{quote} Got it! Gonna be checking this too. This month i made 15% profit by only looking at the charts .. Risking 2% each trade. Made only 6 trades the whole month of which i had 5 winners and 1 loser. I think the biggest breakthrough i got from this thread is realizing that "I don't need to be in the market all the time".. In fact, theres no need to be EVER in the market, unless theres a good opportunity that meets my rules. This is such a simple thought, but yet so hard to understand!... Maybe i was lucky.. i dont really know yet, but what i do...

More Greek nonsense. In the end though, you can see they are trying to buy Euros again. This came down to the sides not reaching an agreement over the weekend, and with the closing of Greek banks.....never a good sign. However, they will figure things out. Its easy when you don't really have a choice.

Congrats on the breakthroughs. I will warn you though: Once you get to this point in your trading - It gets a lot less exciting.......

Chris
Quoting clockwork71
{quote} More Greek nonsense. In the end though, you can see they are trying to buy Euros again. This came down to the sides not reaching an agreement over the weekend, and with the closing of Greek banks.....never a good sign. However, they will figure things out. Its easy when you don't really have a choice. Congrats on the breakthroughs. I will warn you though: Once you get to this point in your trading - It gets a lot less exciting....... Chris
I am actually excited for the non exciting trading!

I have my eye on USDJPY, what do you think?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.png Size: 60 KB
Keep it simple All Time Return: na
Quoting guiyee
{quote} I am actually excited for the non exciting trading! I have my eye on USDJPY, what do you think? {image}
I agree......however I am trading smaller positions at the moment......

It might be the end of summer before we break out, but we should eventually get higher than 125.....

Chris
Hello Chris,
I've found my way back to forex factory after a 4 year break.I figured what the heck let's try it again.I'm getting ready to go threw your posts.Would you recommend a good place to start?
Quoting jlmac27
Hello Chris, I've found my way back to forex factory after a 4 year break.I figured what the heck let's try it again.I'm getting ready to go threw your posts.Would you recommend a good place to start?
I am not Chris, but I would recommend you to start from 1st post. The whole thread is good to read, but go up to page 50 to have a good idea of what to do. I would say after page 100 will be about particular trades and opportunities they took back then.

Cheers
Guillermo
Keep it simple All Time Return: na
Quoting jlmac27
Hello Chris, I've found my way back to forex factory after a 4 year break.I figured what the heck let's try it again.I'm getting ready to go threw your posts.Would you recommend a good place to start?

Honestly, the start. I mean, there are a lot of good ones from time to time, but a lot of crap too. :-)

Truthfully, I just got back into the forum itself recently. I have still been trading, but really busy.

Welcome, and feel free to ask questions.
I still think that the USD/SEK pair is trying to turn around and start selling. I think it will be a bit volatile, but the pair looks as if it is trying to follow the channel. The 50 EMA is starting to cross the 100 EMA, which is the first sign of the longer-term trend perhaps changing. If we get a slight move lower, then I am willing to consider starting a small position, or perhaps buying the Swedish Krona ETF. (FXS)

USD/SEK:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdsek.jpg Size: 103 KB


FXS would simply be a non-leveraged way to dealing with it, allowing me to hang onto the trade throughout the trend change.....?

Chris
1 trader viewing now