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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #52,501
  • Jun 26, 2015 11:14am Jun 26, 2015 11:14am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Hi I hope the circumstances are ok for you. The things you have learned here will always be with you. I very much appreciate all offers of help and all help is always welcome and most gratefully received. If you can offer any example or tips on attack as I am not always sure when I should add so I am perfecting by doing. Wishing you well. Alex

Just add to your attack till you are comfortable and little more. I am still learnign attacks, but attacks is everyone own personal way of trading. I try to wait for pullback before i attack..

V
  • #52,502
  • Jun 26, 2015 4:30pm Jun 26, 2015 4:30pm
Quoting fti
hahahahahahaha gave me a scare. I thought i suddenly lost the ability understand mandarin. was checking, did i got a stroke? resorted to reading the lyrics. hahahahahaha, nice song. very refreshing. reminds me of ldn mimi. very artistic. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39rXqw82Y3U regards
love it thanks fti
we don't predict, we only ride
  • #52,503
  • Edited Jun 27, 2015 5:15am Jun 26, 2015 9:18pm | Edited Jun 27, 2015 5:15am
Hi fti & All;
first of all i thank you all so much for this amazing thread.
I have been reading this thread for a while now, and applying the principle to my trading. it has helped me a lot. i am currently at page 137. it is going to take long time to digest 8 years of teaching, thoughts and ideas. But i am not in hurry since i get a lot of information reading every page.
But i have some issue in matching my 5min chart with daily or 4h chart for trend following. for example; i look at at an up trend with a pull back on daily chart. i tried to take the up trend as major trend, it went against me on 5min. the next day i took the retracement as major trend, it went against me again. that is only 1 bar in daily chart but a big trend in 5 & 15min charts.
Can you fti, or anyone else please guide me a little bit on this. this is my major issue for now, apart from this everything is dancing well.

thank you so much.

regards

hhtif
i have attached the screen shot of my 2 trades. both went against me based on my analysis. the first chart is daily and the other two are 5min.
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  • #52,504
  • Jun 27, 2015 10:51pm Jun 27, 2015 10:51pm
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  • #52,505
  • Jun 27, 2015 11:08pm Jun 27, 2015 11:08pm
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  • #52,506
  • Jun 28, 2015 4:55am Jun 28, 2015 4:55am
hi chief,
greece saga, possible outcome!
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #52,507
  • Edited 7:19am Jun 28, 2015 6:47am | Edited 7:19am
Quoting priceaction1
hi chief, greece saga, possible outcome!
i no crystal balls
just risk small.

my opinion, the lender credit risk negligence will be punished.
same MO what created sub prime usa bubble.
lender banks no learn lesson, maybe need BIG one then learns.
I don't see how anyone can fault borrower, when have credit risk and country risk analysis.

if you ask me , only way is to amortise the debt over long tenure without interest.
Only way out, i think , otherwise force default.
Already hearing victim turning for brics support.
That may be unacceptable to some politiks.

I just watching see if is replay of iceland scenario.
A politik solution will introduces many factor changes in the playground.




regards
  • #52,508
  • Jun 28, 2015 8:16am Jun 28, 2015 8:16am
thank you chief!
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #52,509
  • Edited 5:59am Jun 29, 2015 5:00am | Edited 5:59am
Quoting hhtif
But i have some issue in matching my 5min chart with daily or 4h chart for trend following. for example; i look at at an up trend with a pull back on daily chart. i tried to take the up trend as major trend, it went against me on 5min. the next day i took the retracement as major trend, it went against me again. that is only 1 bar in daily chart but a big trend in 5 & 15min charts. Can you fti, or anyone else please guide me a little bit on this. this is my major issue for now, apart from this everything is dancing well. thank you so much. regards...
Hi - here are just my thoughts. Hope you are not indicator following.

You are too rigid in your thinking - I do this too. You have decided that the market is going long even when it is not for now. Look at the d1 chart again - look also at h1/m15 (look at the waves). The big run south in m5 before you took your trade would have worried me - look at the strength in the waves short and long (big run south then abc....waves what did they do - they did not all go long). After you went long and it went short - what was your thinking then - those waves short told you market was not going long then - you were on wrong bus at that time. If you are following a HTF trend then you can keep getting in if mm allows - but you could be waiting for a bus that does not come soon enough for mm so IMO too risky.

We cannot have a blind bias but must dance as best we can with the market and have strategies to manage what best to do if we are wrong. Lots of options around the market moves here. So just adapt and be more flexible and look at what market was telling you - lots of clues are given I think. There is no real answer other than go with the flow of the water as best you can - the water flows where it wants/can - rigidity kills. Think also the strong up candle acted like a brick wall so lots of little waves short were used to break it down - not sure just think.

Thanks for the question - maybe I helped a bit.

Any way you only had a scout in - so should be very small for feel but you then need to "feel" it and think where is my m5 flowing now - did it do what I expected if it is going long now and what will I do if I am wrong - what was your plan for attack/rescue before the trade. 2nd trade the same - you were not wrong really you just had to be more adaptable and manage the situations better. Bias cannot be so rigid. If you want to go long wait for good conditions for it and be ready if you are wrong.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,510
  • Jun 29, 2015 6:33am Jun 29, 2015 6:33am
Hi Alex;
thanks for the reply, it did help.
you know my analysis on daily chart was based on the double bottom in the pullback and 2 bull candles afterward. when it retraced from EMA on 5min with the strong bull candle, i thought it was the flow.
The same happened on the third chart , as you can see avery strong down trend and it retraced with big bear candle.
Yes you are right, i should concentrate more on my feeling of the flow.
Thank you again.


hhtif
  • #52,511
  • Jun 29, 2015 10:00am Jun 29, 2015 10:00am
Quoting hhtif
Hi Alex; thanks for the reply, it did help. you know my analysis on daily chart was based on the double bottom in the pullback and 2 bull candles afterward. when it retraced from EMA on 5min with the strong bull candle, i thought it was the flow. The same happened on the third chart , as you can see avery strong down trend and it retraced with big bear candle. Yes you are right, i should concentrate more on my feeling of the flow. Thank you again. hhtif
Hi hhtif

i agree with what Alex has said, i also think you neglected to take into account the bearish momentum in the daily, nothing rises or falls forever, the market 'pumps then rests' usually, there is also another factor at play at the moment, we are not in 'normal' market conditions/terrain with the Greece thing supposedly coming to a head.

i personally am not trading this week as i see far too much risk to my account with all this very messy uncertainty the ECB/Greece thing is causing. .

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,512
  • Jun 29, 2015 10:21am Jun 29, 2015 10:21am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi hhtif i agree with what Alex has said, i also think you neglected to take into account the bearish momentum in the daily, nothing rises or falls forever, the market 'pumps then rests' usually, there is also another factor at play at the moment, we are not in 'normal' market conditions/terrain with the Greece thing supposedly coming to a head. i personally am not trading this week as i see far too much risk to my account with all this very messy uncertainty the ECB/Greece thing is causing. . regards Phil.


Hi Phil;
Yes you are right, it is acting differently.
thanks for the comment.

hhtif
  • #52,513
  • Jun 29, 2015 10:31am Jun 29, 2015 10:31am
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33307263
  • #52,514
  • Jun 29, 2015 10:34am Jun 29, 2015 10:34am
seems now need look for knights in shining golden armours.
plan D.
departure?
pigs should be watching closely.
someone is pinned on brick wall already.if bricks give way , may find way out.
  • #52,515
  • Jun 29, 2015 10:40am Jun 29, 2015 10:40am
Quoting hhtif
Hi Alex; thanks for the reply, it did help. you know my analysis on daily chart was based on the double bottom in the pullback and 2 bull candles afterward. when it retraced from EMA on 5min with the strong bull candle, i thought it was the flow. The same happened on the third chart , as you can see avery strong down trend and it retraced with big bear candle. Yes you are right, i should concentrate more on my feeling of the flow. Thank you again. hhtif

What I am trying to say is look at ripples/waves of the water - compare the waves long and waves short on all your charts above - where is strength and weakness (I do(did) not see that daily as bullish). Look at your short trade waves that went long and then waves short next

After you went long/short do not stick with rigidity look at what market does next: if good then you can add and if bad work your plans. You could make all the right decisions but the market does something else so be prepared and adapt as the water flows/ changes course.

This is just how I look at it - I am always looking at where strength lies. Oh and have your plans ready. I do assume you are not doing anything too naughty in these dangerous times.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,516
  • Jun 29, 2015 10:45am Jun 29, 2015 10:45am
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-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,517
  • Edited 10:57am Jun 29, 2015 10:47am | Edited 10:57am
oh have 1 more esc.
lender of last resort.

where CB please. run on bank situation please SOS.
eeer no electricity?
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  • #52,518
  • Jun 29, 2015 10:49am Jun 29, 2015 10:49am
Quoting phil13
{quote} i personally am not trading this week as i see far too much risk to my account with all this very messy uncertainty the ECB/Greece thing is causing. . regards Phil.
This is quite handy week for Greece to blow up for me (usual situation for me tomorrow).........but I feel so sad for poor people who are living in dire circumstances in Greece.

Looks like the parties have got a hangover and now talking each other down.... not looking good.

Gonna get hot here so good week to enjoy some sunshine.... fishing maybe(?).

Take care my friend.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,519
  • Jun 29, 2015 10:56am Jun 29, 2015 10:56am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} This is quite handy week for Greece to blow up for me (usual situation for me tomorrow).........but I feel so sad for poor people who are living in dire circumstances in Greece. Looks like the parties have got a hangover and now talking each other down.... not looking good. Gonna get hot here so good week to enjoy some sunshine.... fishing maybe(?). Take care my friend. Alex
Hi Alexandria

fishing? no, i have been given another list , and my grandson is at school so i can not even say but he wants to go.....

hope you are doing better now.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,520
  • Jun 29, 2015 10:59am Jun 29, 2015 10:59am
plug in.
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